All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Bruce Blakeman
YesNo
Pat Hahn
YesNo
Elise Stefanik
YesNo
David Tulley
YesNo
Betsy McCaughey
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.18 18:21 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Bruce Blakeman formally accepted the GOP nomination at the convention on Feb 11, 2026, and holds Trump's endorsement. Main rival Elise Stefanik withdrew in Dec 2025. Pat Hahn, despite recent price noise, is a perennial fringe candidate who failed to make the ballot in previous cycles (2018/2022) and poses no threat. While Blakeman faces criticism for a low-profile 'phantom' campaign, his status as the sole party designee is secure, justifying a fair value near 100 cents.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
This presents a critical 'Unopposed Trap' (Score 5). The rules explicitly state: 'If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to Other.' Under NY election law, if a candidate is unopposed (i.e., only one person qualifies for the ballot), the primary is legally cancelled, and the candidate becomes the nominee by default. Major challenger Elise Stefanik has withdrawn and endorsed frontrunner Bruce Blakeman, while Betsy McCaughey is running for Governor of Connecticut. If minor candidates like Pat Hahn or David Tulley fail to secure enough valid petition signatures to qualify for the ballot, Blakeman will run unopposed. In this scenario, the primary would be cancelled, causing the 'Bruce Blakeman' option to settle at $0 and the market to resolve to 'Other'. Thus, betting on Blakeman is effectively a derivative bet on 'at least one underdog successfully qualifying for the ballot'.
Exotics
While a 'Gubernatorial Primary' is a standard political topic, this market's core complexity lies in the technical risk of the primary being cancelled due to a lack of opposition, rather than a simple win/loss prediction. This 'Nomination by Default' mechanic elevates it above standard election markets.
