All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Jordan Bardella
YesNo
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
YesNo
Marine Le Pen
YesNo
Dominique de Villepin
YesNo
Sarah Knafo
YesNo
Laurent Wauquiez
YesNo
Bruno Retailleau
YesNo
Édouard Philippe
YesNo
Jean Castex
YesNo
François Hollande
YesNo
Gabriel Attal
YesNo
Olivier Faure
YesNo
Sébastien Lecornu
YesNo
Raphaël Glucksmann
YesNo
Juan Branco
YesNo
François Ruffin
YesNo
Éric Zemmour
YesNo
Marine Tondelier
YesNo
Bernard Cazeneuve
YesNo
David Lisnard
YesNo
Xavier Bertrand
YesNo
Fabien Roussel
YesNo
Manuel Bompard
YesNo
Carole Delga
YesNo
Yaël Braun-Pivet
YesNo
Clémence Guetté
YesNo
Valérie Pécresse
YesNo
François Bayrou
YesNo
Clémentine Autain
YesNo
Mathilde Panot
YesNo
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
YesNo
Élisabeth Borne
YesNo
François Asselineau
YesNo
Michel Barnier
YesNo
Gérald Darmanin
YesNo
Ségolène Royal
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. **Right-Wing Clarity**: Jordan Bardella (26.5c) is undervalued; fair value raised to 34c. As Marine Le Pen's (8c) embezzlement trial progresses, the risk of her being declared ineligible is extremely high. If Le Pen is barred, Bardella will seamlessly inherit the RN base. Moreover, his softer image gives him a significantly higher win probability in a runoff against centrists or the left compared to Le Pen. The market has not fully priced in this 'inheritance dividend'. Le Pen's fair value is lowered to 5c, retaining only a sliver of probability for acquittal or suspended sentence. 2. **Centrist Consolidation**: Édouard Philippe (18.5c) is slightly undervalued, with a fair value of 20c. As the most popular centrist figure, he is steadily building his campaign machinery. Gabriel Attal (2.95c) has corrected, but remains a primary diluter for Philippe. 3. **Left-Wing Bubbles & Realignments**: Jean-Luc Mélenchon (9.5c) is severely overvalued; fair value is only 2c. The hard left has almost zero chance of winning a runoff due to the 'Republican Front' voting against them. Raphaël Glucksmann (4.1c) is a more rational pick for the left, fair value raised to 5c, as center-left voters seek non-radical alternatives. 4. **Media Noise**: Dominique de Villepin (6.65c) still carries a huge media premium lacking substantial party backing; fair value lowered to 4c.
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Hedging
DXY
France is a core pillar of the Eurozone. A victory by a far-right (e.g., Marine Le Pen) or far-left candidate would be seen as a major challenge to EU integration, likely causing significant volatility in the Euro, which directly and heavily impacts the Dollar Index (DXY). Political uncertainty may also slightly boost safe-haven assets like Gold.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream political analysis, primarily regarding Jean-Luc Mélenchon. While mainstream consensus holds that the far-left has a very low ceiling and cannot win a runoff, the prediction market affords him a nearly 10% chance, likely reflecting ideological bias of holders rather than rational analysis. Additionally, Jordan Bardella's pricing (26.5%) is slightly below the RN's dominance seen in polls; this suggests the market is hedging the uncertainty of Le Pen's candidacy but hasn't fully priced in the high efficiency of RN vote transfer to Bardella.
