NH-01 Republican Primary Winner
Elections|$38.5k Vol|
time127 days 1 hrs

NH-01 Republican Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.30 06:00
Top Undervalued
+8.4¢
Elizabeth Girard(No)
+3¢
Hollie Noveletsky(Yes)
+1¢
Melissa Bailey(No)

NH-01 Republican Primary Winner AI analysis: • +8.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is currently experiencing a significant premium, with the sum of Yes prices exceeding 130...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Toronto on May 4?
Weather|$30.6k Vol|
time13 hrs 52 mins

Highest temperature in Toronto on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+22.5¢
21°C(No)
+19¢
19°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current weather forecast models show divergence for Toronto's highest temperature on May 4. Environm...
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AI Analysis
How exactly does Wunderground finalize the highest temperature for Toronto Pearson Airport (CYYZ), and what happens if the data is delayed or there is a dispute over the whole-degree Celsius rounding rules?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 4?
Weather|$16.3k Vol|
time13 hrs 52 mins

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+25¢
13°C(No)
+16.5¢
15°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current weather forecasts for Istanbul on May 4 predict high temperatures ranging between 13°C and 1...
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Exotics
Betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a random day is a niche and unconventional topic. The general public rarely thinks about such micro-level meteorological details.
AI Analysis
How exactly will the highest temperature at Istanbul Airport on May 4 be determined using the NOAA data, and what are the resolution rules if the LTFM station experiences data delays or outages?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?
Weather|$38.4k Vol|
time13 hrs 52 mins

Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+0.6¢
66-67°F(No)
+0.3¢
68°F or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature for Houston (William P. Hobby Airport) o...
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AI Analysis
How are the winning temperature ranges determined and finalized based on the Wunderground data for Houston's William P. Hobby Airport?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 5?
Weather|$20.9k Vol|
time1 days 13 hrs

Highest temperature in Chicago on May 5?

Top Undervalued
+30.5¢
60°F or higher(No)
+26.5¢
54-55°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts (e.g., Fox 32 and other major weather platforms), the high tem...
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Divergence
The market currently heavily favors '60°F or higher' (39.5%) and '56-57°F' (33.5%), whereas mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Fox 32 Chicago) expect a high of around 54°F for the day. This indicates a divergence where the market pricing skews noticeably warmer than actual meteorological projections.
AI Analysis
How long does it typically take for Wunderground to finalize the daily high temperature data for Chicago O'Hare (KORD), and are there any risks of capital lock-up due to delayed resolution?
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
Politics|$14.7k Vol|
time241 days 1 hrs

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
December 31(No)
+3¢
June 30(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as chair ends in May 2026, while his term as a Fed Governor lasts unt...
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Rule Risk
There is significant trap potential. The rules strictly distinguish between removing Powell as 'Chair' versus 'Board Member'; attempting to remove him only as Chair does not trigger a 'Yes'. Furthermore, statements of intent do not qualify, and if Powell resigns first, it resolves to 'No'. These nuances can easily mislead traders who only read the title.
Hedging
Gold
DXY
S&P 500
US 10Y Yield
If Trump takes substantive action to fire a Fed Board Member, it would severely undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, triggering market panic over monetary policy control and inflation. This would cause structural shocks in the US 10Y Yield and DXY. Risk assets like the S&P 500 would likely plunge due to policy uncertainty, while Gold would see significant safe-haven demand.
Movers
April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the Yes price for the December 31 option temporarily spiked from 18c to 40.5c (and June 30 spiked to 31.5c), before quickly falling back to around 20c and 11.5c respectively. This was likely driven by media rumors or informal rhetoric regarding Trump's plans to take action against Powell, but market sentiment quickly cooled down due to a lack of substantive or qualifying official action. No earlier significant price movements recorded.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this market in the simplest terms, specifically highlighting the key difference between firing Powell as 'Fed Chair' versus removing him as a 'Fed Board Member'.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Elizabeth Girard
YesNo
20.35¢
79.65¢
12¢
88¢
0¢
+8.4¢
Hollie Noveletsky
YesNo
37¢
63¢
40¢
60¢
+3¢
0¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026, Elizabeth Girard's price surged from 4.75c to 22.75c, likely due to a new endorsement or significant capital inflow driving up the price. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, Hollie Noveletsky's price slightly rebounded from 26.5c to 35.5c, while Anthony DiLorenzo's price fluctuated narrowly between 53.5c and 55.5c. The market was generally in a stable consolidation phase with no severe fluctuations exceeding 10c. March 24, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the market was in a stable consolidation phase, with no price fluctuations exceeding 10c for any option. Anthony DiLorenzo slightly gained about 6.5c, establishing a narrow lead. March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, prices for all options remained relatively stable with no fluctuations exceeding 2.5c, indicating the market has entered a consolidation phase following the previous crash. Early March 2026, prices for Brian Cole and Melissa Bailey experienced a precipitous drop from ~42c to ~4-7c, driven by returned liquidity or rational capital entering the market to burst the previous 183% total price bubble.

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