[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the NV-01 House Election. Given the extremely low volume ($565), analyze the bid-ask spread and order depth. Assess whether the current odds reflect the true fundamentals of this district (historically leaning Democratic) or if they represent pricing inefficiencies due to a lack of liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the NV-01 House Election. Given the extremely low volume ($565), analyze the bid-ask spread and order depth. Assess whether the current odds reflect the true fundamentals of this district (historically leaning Democratic) or if they represent pricing inefficiencies due to a lack of liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency & Partisan Lean Statistics: Search for the 2022 and 2024 election results for Nevada's 1st Congressional District (NV-01) and its current Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI). Verify the winning margin of the incumbent (e.g., Dina Titus) to determine if this seat is a 'Safe Seat' or a competitive 'Swing Seat,' establishing a baseline probability for this market.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency & Partisan Lean Statistics: Search for the 2022 and 2024 election results for Nevada's 1st Congressional District (NV-01) and its current Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI). Verify the winning margin of the incumbent (e.g., Dina Titus) to determine if this seat is a 'Safe Seat' or a competitive 'Swing Seat,' establishing a baseline probability for this market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this market resolves on November 4, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for over 6 months. Compare the implied ROI of the current 'Democratic' share price against the risk-free annual yield of DeFi stablecoins or Treasury bills (e.g., 4-5%) to determine if the trade offers positive Expected Value (EV) purely from a time-value perspective.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this market resolves on November 4, 2026, calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital for over 6 months. Compare the implied ROI of the current 'Democratic' share price against the risk-free annual yield of DeFi stablecoins or Treasury bills (e.g., 4-5%) to determine if the trade offers positive Expected Value (EV) purely from a time-value perspective.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

NV-01 House Election Winner

Elections|$1,708 Vol|

183 days 16 hrs

NV-01 House Election Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.19 06:59

Top Undervalued

+7¢

Democratic Party(Yes)

+5¢

Republican Party(No)

NV-01 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The 2026 cycle is a midterm election under a Republican president (Trump), an environment that stron...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

83¢

17¢

90¢

10¢

+7¢

0¢

Republican Party

YesNo

15.05¢

84.95¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+5¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the price of the Democratic Party plummeted from 83.5c to 71c, likely due to a large sell-off draining liquidity, causing severe price dislocation and opening a rare risk-free arbitrage opportunity. 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-03, market prices remained generally stable without drastic fluctuations. The Democratic Party option hovered between 79.5c and 85.5c, reflecting stable expectations. 2026-03-13 to 2026-03-19, prices remained completely static with the Democratic Party stable at 86c. Although March 13 was the filing deadline in Nevada, confirming State Senator Carrie Buck as the primary GOP challenger, the market showed little reaction. This suggests participants had already priced in the expectation that Titus would face a standard challenge but remain the heavy favorite.