[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner' event to analyze the Order Book. Given the low volume of $3813.9, assess the bid-ask spread and liquidity risks, and update the fair value assessment based on incumbent Adriano Espaillat's electoral advantage.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner' event to analyze the Order Book. Given the low volume of $3813.9, assess the bid-ask spread and liquidity risks, and update the fair value assessment based on incumbent Adriano Espaillat's electoral advantage.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Players & FEC Data Mining: Search the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings for the NY-13 district 2026 cycle. Compare the 'Cash on Hand' of incumbent Adriano Espaillat against challengers (e.g., James Felton Keith, Jaleel Amador) to verify if the challengers have the financial capacity to mount a serious campaign.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Players & FEC Data Mining: Search the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings for the NY-13 district 2026 cycle. Compare the 'Cash on Hand' of incumbent Adriano Espaillat against challengers (e.g., James Felton Keith, Jaleel Amador) to verify if the challengers have the financial capacity to mount a serious campaign.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of June 23, 2026 (locking capital for ~4 months), calculate whether the potential return of betting on the heavy favorite outweighs the risk-free yields in DeFi or Treasury bonds. Determine the actual Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) to decide if the trade is worth the capital lock-up.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of June 23, 2026 (locking capital for ~4 months), calculate whether the potential return of betting on the heavy favorite outweighs the risk-free yields in DeFi or Treasury bonds. Determine the actual Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) to decide if the trade is worth the capital lock-up.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Politics|$21.3k Vol|

50 days 17 hrs

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.28 14:04

Top Undervalued

+8¢

Darializa Avila Chevalier(No)

+6¢

Adriano Espaillat(Yes)

+0.3¢

Oscar Romero(Yes)

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner AI analysis: • +8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Incumbent Adriano Espaillat's fundamentals remain solid. As an established politician in NY-13, he h...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Darializa Avila Chevalier

YesNo

30¢

70¢

22¢

78¢

0¢

+8¢

Adriano Espaillat

YesNo

69¢

31¢

75¢

25¢

+6¢

0¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Divergence

The market prices Adriano Espaillat at only around 50c, which significantly diverges from mainstream political consensus. For an incumbent without major scandals, the primary win rate is typically considered to be over 90%. The market's low pricing is likely due to poor liquidity or speculators over-betting on the challenger.