[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner' event to analyze the Order Book. Given the low volume of $3813.9, assess the bid-ask spread and liquidity risks, and update the fair value assessment based on incumbent Adriano Espaillat's electoral advantage.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner' event to analyze the Order Book. Given the low volume of $3813.9, assess the bid-ask spread and liquidity risks, and update the fair value assessment based on incumbent Adriano Espaillat's electoral advantage.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Players & FEC Data Mining: Search the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings for the NY-13 district 2026 cycle. Compare the 'Cash on Hand' of incumbent Adriano Espaillat against challengers (e.g., James Felton Keith, Jaleel Amador) to verify if the challengers have the financial capacity to mount a serious campaign.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Players & FEC Data Mining: Search the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings for the NY-13 district 2026 cycle. Compare the 'Cash on Hand' of incumbent Adriano Espaillat against challengers (e.g., James Felton Keith, Jaleel Amador) to verify if the challengers have the financial capacity to mount a serious campaign.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of June 23, 2026 (locking capital for ~4 months), calculate whether the potential return of betting on the heavy favorite outweighs the risk-free yields in DeFi or Treasury bonds. Determine the actual Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) to decide if the trade is worth the capital lock-up.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of June 23, 2026 (locking capital for ~4 months), calculate whether the potential return of betting on the heavy favorite outweighs the risk-free yields in DeFi or Treasury bonds. Determine the actual Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) to decide if the trade is worth the capital lock-up.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$832 Vol|

95 days 20 hrs

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Darializa Avila Chevalier

YesNo

32.5¢

67.5¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+12.5¢

Adriano Espaillat

YesNo

60¢

40¢

72¢

28¢

+12¢

0¢

Oscar Romero

YesNo

5.25¢

94.75¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+3.2¢

James Felton Keith

YesNo

3.85¢

96.15¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+2.8¢

Megan Rodriguez

YesNo

2.05¢

97.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1¢

Matt Miller

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

Theo Chino-Tavarez

YesNo

1.25¢

98.75¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.2¢

Jaleel Amador

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

1¢

99¢

+0.1¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.13 08:38 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Despite recent market volatility, incumbent Adriano Espaillat's fundamentals remain robust ('Solid D...

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Divergence

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market assigns a combined ~40% probability to challengers (Chevalier 30.5% + others), implying a competitive race. However, mainstream political analysis (e.g., Cook Political Report) rates the seat as 'Solid D' and deems challengers 'not credible'. The market appears to be over-indexing on recent progressive waves in NYC while ignoring Espaillat's formidable local machine.

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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