Poilievre's internal position is highly secure following his 87.4% support in the January 2026 leade...

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media and pundits (e.g., analyses from Leger and Liaison Strategies) continue to highlight the Liberals' massive polling lead (14 points) as creating an 'opportune moment' for a spring 2026 snap election, creating an atmosphere of imminent electoral risk. However, the prediction market price (~16c) implies a low probability (<20%) of an election/exit. This divergence stems from 'smart money' pricing in the strategic likelihood that the Liberals will secure a functional majority via by-elections instead, deeming this a more rational path than a risky general election, thus betting against Poilievre's exit.

The tracking week (March 13-19) has concluded, and all streaming and sales data are locked. Accordin...

Current date is March 22, 2026, with <2 days to resolution. Context confirms Ali Khamenei's death in...

This is a moderately exotic market. While predicting the tweet volume of political figures (like Trump or Musk) has become more common in prediction markets, betting on the exact tweet count of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei for a specific week remains a niche novelty. It is less about broad political outcomes and more about speculating on the operational rhythm of his social media team.

March 22, 2026, '40-59' retraced to 46c while '20-39' rebounded from 19c to 27c. The reason is a temporary lull in posting frequency on the 22nd, fueling fears that the count might stall under 40, prompting defensive capital flow into the lower bracket. March 21 - March 22, 2026, '60-79' crashed from 35c to 4c. The reason is the passing of the Nowruz peak without the anticipated 'holiday spam' explosion, causing the premium on higher brackets to evaporate. March 20 - March 21, 2026, '100-119' and higher brackets collapsed as the market realized that even in wartime, the account follows a cadence, falsifying early 'bot spam' panic.

Significant 'Entity vs. Digital' divergence exists. Mainstream media focuses on Ali Khamenei's death, Mojtaba's succession, and the macro Iran war; the prediction market focuses solely on the activity of the @khamenei_ir 'digital ghost'. Despite the physical death, the market effectively prices the account as a continuing propaganda machine, maintaining high frequency for wartime morale, contradicting the intuitive expectation that death leads to silence.

The core logic is based on Incheon Airport's (RKSI) coastal location and latest specific forecasts. ...

Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, the price of '15°C or higher' crashed from 31.5c to 7.5c, as the market realized the significant temperature discrepancy between coastal Incheon Airport and inland Seoul, ruling out high temperatures. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, the price of '14°C' saw a whipsaw, spiking from 18.5c to 29c before crashing back to 16.5c, reflecting market uncertainty and subsequent correction regarding threshold temperatures. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, prices for '12°C' and '13°C' steadily rose (up ~10c and ~16c respectively) as forecast data converged into this range.

Mainstream generic search engines (e.g., Google Weather) show 'Seoul' forecasts with highs of 15°C-16°C, which can mislead casual traders. However, the resolution source is Incheon Airport (RKSI), where specialized aviation forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather RKSI) show a high of only 12°C (53°F). While the market has corrected for this (crashing 15°C+), it is still slightly overvaluing 13°C (34.5c) while undervaluing the data-backed favorite 12°C (27.5c).

Beijing time is now early morning on March 23 (UTC+8), meaning the daily high for March 22 has been ...

On March 22, 2026, the price of the '23°C' option surged from 6.5c in the early morning to 99.95c. This was driven by real-time weather data showing Beijing's temperature breaking through the previously forecasted 20-21°C range and settling at 23°C, forcing an immediate intraday market repricing. On March 20, 2026, the '26°C or higher' option crashed from 24c to ~7c as forecasts converged closer to the event date, eliminating the probability of extreme heat.