[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for 'Poilievre out by 2027'; given his strong polling lead in Canada, analyze if the 'Yes' price realistically reflects the probability of a 'black swan' event (e.g., sudden scandal or health issue) or if it is merely market noise.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for 'Poilievre out by 2027'; given his strong polling lead in Canada, analyze if the 'Yes' price realistically reflects the probability of a 'black swan' event (e.g., sudden scandal or health issue) or if it is merely market noise.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Politics] Authoritative Polls & Timeline Comparison: Search 338Canada or Nanos Research for the latest data to confirm the expected date of the next Canadian Federal Election (likely 2025); analyze the 'political impossibility' of Poilievre being forced to resign by the end of 2026 if he secures a majority government.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Politics] Authoritative Polls & Timeline Comparison: Search 338Canada or Nanos Research for the latest data to confirm the expected date of the next Canadian Federal Election (likely 2025); analyze the 'political impossibility' of Poilievre being forced to resign by the end of 2026 if he secures a majority government.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost] APY Calculation for Long-Term Lockup: Given that capital is locked until Dec 31, 2026, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'No' (remains leader) option; compare this against the risk-free USDC rate in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave) to determine if the return justifies the long-term illiquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Opportunity Cost] APY Calculation for Long-Term Lockup: Given that capital is locked until Dec 31, 2026, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'No' (remains leader) option; compare this against the risk-free USDC rate in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave) to determine if the return justifies the long-term illiquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$110.9k Vol|

287 days 5 hrs

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

21.5¢

78.5¢

24¢

76¢

+2.5¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.15 21:19 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Although Poilievre secured an overwhelming 87.4% support in the Jan 2026 leadership review and returned to Parliament via the Aug 2025 by-election (Battle River-Crowfoot), eliminating the 'seatless' risk, new external risks are rising. The March 5, 2026 Leger poll shows the Liberals leading significantly (49% vs 35%), creating a strong incentive for the Liberals to trigger a snap election to secure a majority. If a general election occurs in 2026 and the Conservatives suffer a crushing defeat, Poilievre would likely resign. Thus, the current valuation (~24c) primarily reflects the tail risk of 'snap election defeat' rather than internal revolt.

Sign up to view more information

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner