Recent meteorological updates (such as Environment and Climate Change Canada and GFS/GEM models) hav...

While weather forecasting is an everyday routine, betting on the exact degree of a specific city's high temperature for a single day is a niche activity primarily unique to prediction markets, making it moderately novel.

March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of the '10°C or higher' option surged from approximately 29c to a peak of 81.5c (settling around 70.5c). This was driven by significantly updated forecasts from Environment Canada and weather models projecting an unseasonably warm daytime high of 12-14°C for March 29. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the prices of '9°C' and several lower temperature options plummeted, as the market rapidly priced out cooler outcomes in response to the new high-temperature consensus.

Given the large field and high variance in golf tournaments, individual win probabilities are typica...

March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026: The Yes prices for players like Min Woo Lee and Nicolai Hojgaard experienced abnormal spikes, rising from under 10c to between 15c and 48c. The reason is a severe liquidity vacuum where anomalous market orders caused brief but extreme price volatility. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026: The Yes prices for multiple players, including Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Henry Lebioda, JT Poston, and Max McGreevy, abnormally surged from under 5c to between 25c and 44c. The reason is a severe liquidity vacuum or aggressive anomalous market orders causing the sum of implied probabilities for mutually exclusive events to massively exceed 100%. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The Yes prices for multiple players, including Ryo Hisatsune, Michael Kim, Marcelo Rozo, and Matt McCarty, abnormally surged from under 1c to between 35c and 50c due to extremely poor market liquidity being easily pushed up by small orders. March 24, 2026: Several long-tail players (like Ze-Cheng Dou, Aldrich Potgieter, Jason Day, and Rasmus Hojgaard) experienced brief and extreme spikes in their Yes prices (e.g., from under 5c to over 25c-40c) before rapidly falling back. This was caused by anomalous trading activity in a highly illiquid market environment triggering extreme short-term volatility.

The sum of Yes prices for multiple players in the market far exceeds 100%, which presents a severe divergence from the reality of a golf tournament where only one winner exists (the sum of probabilities should be exactly 100%). This mispricing is caused by extreme illiquidity and potential market manipulation, rather than reflecting the true winning chances of the players.

With just over 1 day remaining until March 29, the market prices have shifted significantly. The Yes...

March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' plummeted from around 11.5c to 6.5c, as approaching meteorological forecasts ruled out the possibility of anomalous high temperatures. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of '14°C' surged from around 24c to 37.5c, due to the latest weather models indicating the daily high is highly likely to fall in this range. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' crashed from 25.5c to around 13c, as early warm predictions were revised downwards by updated forecasts.

According to the latest forecasts from MetService and major meteorological sources issued on March 2...

Predicting the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a moderately common niche topic in prediction markets. However, for the general public, betting on a single day's specific temperature in Wellington, New Zealand, is quite unusual and carries some novelty.

Between March 27 and March 28, 2026, the price of '20°C' rose from around 30c to a peak of 40c, as nearing resolution forecasts indicated northerly winds that might allow temperatures to briefly spike before rain sets in. Between March 26 and March 27, 2026, the price of '20°C' surged from 16.5c to 32c, while '18°C' dropped from 27.5c to 14.5c, as updated meteorological models closer to the date revised expected temperatures slightly upward, squeezing out cooler probabilities. Between March 25 and March 27, 2026, '21°C' experienced significant volatility, dropping from 19c to 5c before rebounding to 16.5c, indicating market disagreement during minor forecast tweaks. Between 11:00 and 12:05 on March 25, 2026, the Yes price for '23°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to 11c (and subsequently below 2c), as consensus forecasts stabilized around 18-20°C, thoroughly eliminating the possibility of extreme heat.

Based on current market prices, the 'Yes' price for 'War Machine' has reached 0.963, indicating that...

From 2026-03-26 to 2026-03-28, the price of 'War Machine' surged from 30.5c to 96.3c, as market confidence in its securing the #2 spot was heavily solidified nearing the end of the full week's data. From 2026-03-26 to 2026-03-28, the price of 'Nobody 2' dropped from 9.2c to 0.45c, as 'War Machine' established absolute dominance, virtually eliminating the chances for other competitors. Between 2026-03-24 and 2026-03-26, the price of 'War Machine' plunged from 77.5c to 30.5c before surging back to 85.5c, as early daily viewership data temporarily sparked concerns of a ranking drop, but subsequent weekend data solidified expectations of it securing the #2 spot. Between 2026-03-24 and 2026-03-26, the price of 'Nuremberg' fluctuated and dropped from 15c to 6.85c, as the strong performance of 'War Machine' squeezed the probability of other films competing for the second place.