With less than two days remaining until resolution, weather forecasting models have largely converge...

Betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a specific day is somewhat niche. Average people wouldn't think about it unless traveling or living there, though weather forecasting is a standard vertical in prediction markets.

From Mar 30, 2026 to Mar 31, 2026, the Yes price of '14°C' plunged from 31¢ to 20¢, while '16°C' surged from 14¢ to 29¢, because short-term weather models revised expected temperatures upward, shifting the most likely high back to 16°C. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 30, 2026, the Yes price of '17°C' dropped sharply from 26.5¢ to 4.5¢, as updated forecasts largely ruled out unseasonable warmth for the target date. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '16°C' surged from 16¢ to 29¢, because the latest meteorological models converged on a high temperature of around 16°C. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '20°C or higher' plunged from 25.5¢ to 15.5¢, as updated weather forecasts closer to the target date reduced the probability of an unseasonably warm peak.

According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Sao Paulo Guarulhos International...

Although weather derivatives exist in niche financial circles, betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a single day is relatively obscure and mundane, lacking broad social engagement and conversational appeal.

March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 0.29c to 0.395c, as some meteorological models indicated delayed rainfall, increasing the potential for daytime heating. March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 0.055c to 0.265c, as short-term weather forecasting models adjusted high-temperature expectations upwards, making 29°C a strong contender. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the 23°C or below option plummeted from 0.0795c to 0.0035c, because short-term weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of extreme low temperatures.

Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground and Google Weather) indicate a high of 27°C (80°F) for April 2, while Polymarket traders currently favor 28°C (36%). This divergence may be due to traders factoring in localized urban heat island effects at the airport station or slight lags in forecast model updates.

Current prediction market prices show that the market is mainly concentrated in the 13°C, 14°C, and ...

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a single day is a typical weather prediction market. While people check weather daily, trading on specific degree ranges is somewhat niche and mostly appeals to weather enthusiasts or local residents.

2026-03-30 to 2026-03-31, the price of '16°C or higher' plummeted from 41.5c to 14.5c because weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of unusually high temperatures as the date approached. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '11°C' spiked from 17.5c to 31.5c before falling back to 2.9c, due to short-term weather forecast fluctuations causing temporary shifts in market expectations. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '10°C' plummeted from 17.5c to 1.45c as weather forecasts gradually confirmed that the temperature would be higher than this range on that day.

As April 2 approaches, short-term weather forecast models become significantly more accurate and sta...

While daily weather forecasting is ubiquitous, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city within narrow 1-degree Celsius intervals is a niche and somewhat novelty-driven prediction market activity.

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '6°C or higher' option surged from 25.5c to 61.5c, while the '3°C' option plummeted from 33c to 4.5c, alongside drops in '4°C' and '5°C'. This was driven by short-term weather models confirming a significant warming trend as the resolution date approaches. March 29, 2026, the price of the 3°C option surged from 17.5c to 33c before pulling back, driven by severe volatility in market expectations following earlier updates to short-term weather forecast models.

With less than 4 days until April 3, weather forecast models are converging. Major meteorological so...

The title broadly says 'Shanghai', but rules strictly specify the Pudong Airport station (ZSPD), which is coastal and can have a temperature variance from downtown. Additionally, resolving purely on Wunderground's integer Celsius data and ignoring post-finalization revisions creates pitfalls for traders relying on general weather apps.

March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the '20°C or higher' option plummeted from 28c to 8.5c, because short-term weather forecasts became clearer, ruling out the possibility of abnormal high temperatures. March 29, 2026, the price of the 19°C option plummeted from 26.5c to 13.5c, and the 12°C option dropped from 25.5c to 14.5c, because weather forecast models have converged as the date approaches, ruling out extreme temperatures.