The resolution source Wunderground (TWC) forecast for March 27 is stabilizing. As the expiration dat...

This is a moderately exotic market. While weather is a common topic, betting on a specific temperature range for a specific day in a specific city is a niche interest, mostly relevant to weather enthusiasts or locals.

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of '54-55°F' surged from 9.5c to 23.5c (hitting a peak of 31c), while '64-65°F' plummeted from 18.9c to 2.1c. This occurred because, as the expiration date approaches, updated weather models ruled out extreme warm possibilities and the cold front expectations converged, driving the consensus toward the middle range (50-55°F). March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026: '49°F or below' was initially overvalued up to 28c due to early hedging flows, but gradually retraced to 15.5c as forecasts stabilized.

Based on the latest forecasts, Taipei (Taoyuan Airport RCTP) will be significantly affected by a pas...

This is a moderately exotic market. While weather prediction is common, betting on the precise maximum temperature for a specific date and a specific city (not a major global financial hub) is a niche market, not a mainstream event followed by the general public.

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '23°C' rose from 16.5c to 28.5c, indicating a significant increase in market expectation for this temperature, likely due to slight adjustments in weather models regarding the cold air's intensity. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '26°C' dropped from 20c to 6.55c, reflecting the market's rapid pricing out of higher temperatures as the cold front approaches. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '27°C' plummeted from 18.5c to 2.7c, as official forecasts confirmed the cooling trend for the 27th.

According to the latest weather forecasts from sources like Met Office and Google Weather, the high ...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '18°C or higher' option plummeted from 26.5c to 5.5c, and the '17°C' option dropped from a peak of 25.5c to 12.5c. This occurred because updated weather models solidified a cooler forecast (highs around 13-16°C) as the target date approached, eliminating previous expectations of unseasonable warmth.

Based on the latest meteorological data from March 25, 2026, and historical analysis, the forecast f...

From March 23, 2026, to March 25, 2026, the price of '22°C' rose from 17.5c to 35.0c, reflecting an upward revision in market expectations for the temperature. From March 24, 2026, to March 25, 2026, the price of '19°C' dropped from 24.0c to 8.5c, indicating that the market has reduced the probability of this lower temperature range.

The market currently assigns the highest probability to 22°C (35c), while mainstream weather models (such as Wunderground/TWC) predict temperatures typically between 19°C and 21°C. This divergence may be due to market overreaction to local microclimate effects or specific forecasting models.

The latest weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature for Sao Paulo (Guarulhos airport are...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '34°C or higher' plummeted from 24c to around 1.6c, as extreme heat was completely ruled out by approaching weather forecasts. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, options like '29°C' and '31°C' experienced severe fluctuations of over 10c, due to meteorological models shifting between 28°C and 31°C, causing capital to quickly rotate among adjacent brackets.

There is a significant pricing divergence. Currently, the leading options on Polymarket are 31°C (31.5%) and 30°C (28%), while the latest forecasts from mainstream meteorological agencies (like AccuWeather) show the high for March 27 will be around 28°C to 29°C. Market participants may be reacting sluggishly or relying too much on earlier warmer climate models.