All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
1.8T–2.0T
YesNo
2.0T+
YesNo
1.6T–1.8T
YesNo
<1.0T
YesNo
1.0T–1.2T
YesNo
No IPO before 2028
YesNo
1.4T–1.6T
YesNo
1.2T–1.4T
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 19:50 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 12, 2026, the market anchor has been firmly established by converging reports from Reuters, Bloomberg, and Morningstar, indicating a June IPO on Nasdaq with a target valuation of $1.75 Trillion. This specific IPO price falls squarely within the '1.6T–1.8T' bracket. The market previously over-bet on '2.0T+' (reaching 52c), implying an expectation of either a ~$2T offering price or a massive Day 1 pop. However, with the $1.75T figure solidifying, reaching the '2.0T+' bracket now requires a post-IPO rally of at least 14.3%. While SpaceX possesses volatility potential, the current pricing of '2.0T+' (40.5c) reflects an excessive premium compared to '1.8T–2.0T' (17.5c). The '1.8T–2.0T' bracket captures a rational Day 1 gain of 3% to 14% on top of the $1.75T anchor, making it the 'Goldilocks' zone with the best risk-reward ratio. Consequently, the fair value model decreases the weight of '2.0T+' and significantly increases the weights of '1.6T–1.8T' (covering the offer price) and '1.8T–2.0T' (covering a moderate pop).
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes' on all options. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is approximately 90.15 cents, which is below the guaranteed payout of 100 cents.
Plan Description:
A clear direct arbitrage opportunity exists. The total implied probability of the market is ~90.15%, meaning purchasing a basket of 'Yes' options across all brackets locks in a risk-free profit of ~9.85 cents. While the absolute value space is decent, the capital lock-up period is long (658 days), resulting in an annualized yield of ~5.4%. A more capital-efficient strategy might be to buy only the high-probability cluster (>1.6T) to capture most of the upside with less capital.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 9¢
|Annualized yield: 5.4%
Hedging
DXYZ
TSLA
A SpaceX IPO is a major market event. Although currently private, its IPO valuation directly impacts sentiment for Musk-related assets (like TSLA) and closed-end funds holding SpaceX shares (like DXYZ). A massive valuation would likely boost the broader space tech and growth sector (Nasdaq 100).
Movers
Mar 9, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, the price of '2.0T+' plunged from 52c to 40.5c, while '1.8T–2.0T' surged from 9.5c to 17.5c. The driver was confirmation from Reuters and Morningstar that SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 Trillion IPO valuation. This news shattered previous speculations of a higher offering price (e.g., $2T), forcing capital to rotate out of the hyper-optimistic '2.0T+' bracket and re-price into the intermediate brackets that align with a $1.75T baseline plus a moderate pop.
Mar 9, 2026 - Mar 11, 2026, the '1.2T–1.4T' option experienced a flash anomaly, spiking to 14c (likely due to a misinterpretation of 'price-to-sales' reports or a fat-finger trade in an illiquid book) before promptly correcting back to 4.6c.
Divergence
Mainstream media (Reuters, PitchBook) explicitly cite a target valuation of $1.75T, which falls within the '1.6T–1.8T' bracket. However, the prediction market's highest-priced option remains '2.0T+' (40.5% probability), implying that participants are pricing in a guaranteed Day 1 pop of >14% or believe the reported valuation is too conservative. While a 'SpaceX premium' is real, there is a significant divergence between the market's implied 'certainty of a massive moonshot' and the media's reported 'rational pricing'.
