Ted Cruz # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
Politics|$10.5k Vol|
time21 hrs 50 mins

Ted Cruz # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 1 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
100-119(No)
+0.7¢
120-139(No)
+0.5¢
160-179(No)

Ted Cruz # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026? AI analysis: • +1.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 24 hours remaining until resolution, the probability for the 60-79 bracket has surged...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
Politics|$17.3k Vol|
time265 days 5 hrs

Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+9.1¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price is stable around 4.8c, essentially returning to its long-term fair value. W...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event and, given the low volume of ~$7,000, analyze the current bid-ask spread and order depth. Combining this with recent news regarding Kristi Noem's tenure as DHS Secretary, does the current pricing reflect genuine impeachment risk, or is it a distortion caused by liquidity illiquidity?
SAVE America Act becomes law by...?
Politics|$57.7k Vol|
time81 days 5 hrs

SAVE America Act becomes law by...?

Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
June 30(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296) passed the House, it faces a decisive legislative deadlock in...
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Hedging
DJT
The SAVE America Act is a core political agenda item for the Trump administration (in the 2026 context per search results), aiming to tighten voter eligibility. Its passage would be seen as a significant political victory, likely boosting associated sentiment stocks like DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) as a proxy for his legislative control. For the broader market (S&P 500), the impact is negligible unless the bill becomes a 'poison pill' in funding negotiations leading to a government shutdown threat, which would generate only minor short-term noise.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest trading data for the 'SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)' event on Polymarket to analyze the order book depth and spread risk given the extremely low volume (5.051); simultaneously visit Congress.gov to verify the bill's current legislative status (e.g., committee review, scheduling) to assess if the market pricing fairly reflects the realistic probability of passage by March 31.
UEFA Champions League: Team to reach final
Sports|$42.8k Vol|
time27 days 5 hrs

UEFA Champions League: Team to reach final

Top Undervalued
+14¢
Barcelona(Yes)
+13.5¢
Atlético Madrid(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market implied probability sum is approximately 229.25% (theoretical total is 200% since...
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Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, Bayern München's price surged from 43c to 59c, and Arsenal's price surged from 49.5c to 62.5c, while Real Madrid's price plummeted from 23c to 13c. This reflects the outcomes of the Champions League Quarter-Final first legs, where Arsenal and Bayern likely secured massive advantages, whereas Real Madrid suffered a heavy defeat or an upset. March 18, 2026 - March 20, 2026, Atlético Madrid's price crashed from 23.5c to 11c, likely due to a difficult Quarter-Final draw or a shaky performance in the Round of 16 second leg. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, Liverpool's price surged from 13c to 20.5c, reflecting strong market confidence following their qualification for the Quarter-Finals.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Order Book data on Polymarket for this event. Compare the implied probabilities of favorites like Man City, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich against official sportsbook odds. Also, check for any drastic price volatility caused by injuries or recent match performances to assess current arbitrage opportunities and risks.
OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
Tech|$18.6k Vol|
time81 days 5 hrs

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+54¢
60%+(No)
+17¢
70%+(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the market rules, the forecast requires an OpenAI model to achieve the specified score ...
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Rule Risk
Critical Risk. There is a fatal date discrepancy: the Title states 'by June 30', but the Rules text explicitly specifies 'by February 28, 2026'. In prediction markets, the specific text in the Rules usually overrides the Title. This implies the effective deadline is in just 18 days, not 4 months. Furthermore, the reliance on Epoch AI as the resolution source poses a lag risk; if Epoch does not update the leaderboard immediately for the recently released GPT-5.3-Codex (Feb 5), the market could resolve 'No' despite model capabilities.
Exotics
Moderately Exotic. FrontierMath is a highly specialized, 'research-level' mathematics benchmark containing unpublished problems. While OpenAI models are mainstream, betting on specific percentage thresholds for this niche, high-difficulty benchmark is a topic for deep-tech industry watchers, not the general public.
Hedging
NVDA
MSFT
If OpenAI scores break 50% or 70% (current GPT-5.2 is ~40.3%), it validates that Scaling Laws are still effective for extreme reasoning tasks, bullish for MSFT (OpenAI backer) and NVDA (compute demand). Conversely, stalling at ~40% implies a reasoning ceiling. Since the baseline is already 40.3%, a jump to 45%+ is a credible signal for continued AI progress, carrying medium-impact price implications for AI-linked equities.
Movers
2026-03-30 - 2026-04-01, the price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 56.5c to 41c, as market participants gradually realized the hard deadline of February 28 had passed without success, causing the speculative bubble to deflate. 2026-03-14 - 2026-03-15, the price of the 60%+ option surged from 43.5c to 56c. The reason was likely market overreaction to the release of new OpenAI models (e.g., GPT-5.4), mistakenly assuming the release implied benchmark success, despite the simultaneous data showing a score of 47.6% (a failure). 2026-03-01 - 2026-03-02, the 50%+ option saw volatility driven by post-deadline speculation.
Divergence
The market prices deviate significantly from objective reality. Although the February 28, 2026 deadline set by the rules passed over a month ago, and no reports indicate OpenAI reached the 60% score prior to it, the prediction market still assigns a 41% probability. This divergence is entirely driven by irrational speculation by market users, failure to read the deadline clause in the rules, or unrealistic hopes for retroactive leaderboard updates.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity and spreads for different score tiers (45%+|50%+, etc.). Focus on the discrepancy between the title date (June 30) and the description deadline (Feb 28), and check user discussions to assess the risk of settlement disputes and capital lock-up periods caused by this conflicting timeline.
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?
Economy|$48.0k Vol|
time81 days 5 hrs

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Jones Act enjoys entrenched bipartisan support and is widely considered a cornerstone of nationa...
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Exotics
The Jones Act is a long-standing political topic. While not as mainstream as general elections, it is central to logistics, energy, and trade policy circles. It is somewhat niche for the general public but certainly not a 'novelty' or impossible question, especially during periods of high inflation or disaster response.
Hedging
MATX
Repealing the Jones Act would cause a structural shock (extreme negative impact) to protected US domestic shipping carriers like Matson (MATX) due to the loss of their competitive moat. It could also lower domestic transport costs, slightly impacting Crude Oil (specifically regarding WTI-Brent arbitrage flows). This event has very high hedging value for specific stocks.
Divergence
The prediction market currently implies a 12.5% probability that the Jones Act will be repealed in the short term, which diverges significantly from mainstream political and maritime policy consensus. Mainstream experts consider the act virtually 'untouchable' in Congress due to strong union and defense lobbying, making it impossible to be overturned within an 81-day window absent a catastrophic crisis. The market's premium is primarily driven by irrational liquidity or excessive speculation over the definition of 'new legislation' rather than realistic political prospects.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest legislative updates on the Jones Act, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the extremely low $10 volume and order book depth, and assess the fair value, bid-ask spread risks, and whether any actual trading opportunity exists given the liquidity.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
100-119
YesNo
2.55¢
97.45¢
1¢
99¢
0¢
+1.5¢
120-139
YesNo
0.7¢
99.3¢
0¢
100¢
0¢
+0.7¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
Resolution relies heavily on a specific Polymarket API tracker. There is technical ambiguity regarding whether replies count (dependent on main feed appearance) and if deleted posts survive the ~5-minute threshold to be captured, posing moderate risks.
Exotics
Predicting the exact tweet count of a specific senator in a given week is a highly niche social media data betting market. The general public rarely thinks about this in daily life, making it highly exotic.
Movers
2026-04-08 to 2026-04-09, the 60-79 option price surged from 56.5c to 95c, while the 40-59 option crashed from 24.95c to 0.05c. This occurred because Ted Cruz's actual post count exceeded 59, firmly placing him in the 60-79 bracket with insufficient time remaining to reach 80 posts. 2026-04-07 to 2026-04-08, the 40-59 option price surged from 23.25c to 48c, while the 60-79 option fell from 52.5c to 43.5c, and the 80-99 option plummeted from 34.5c to 14c. This was because, as the resolution date approaches, the persistently slow actual posting rate caused market expectations to rapidly converge towards lower total count brackets. 2026-04-05 to 2026-04-06, the 60-79 option price rebounded from 33c to 46c, and the 80-99 option price fell from 43c to 31.5c. This was because the latest updates from the post tracker indicated a slowdown in his posting rate, causing market expectations to shift towards lower brackets. 2026-04-03 to 2026-04-05, the 120-139 option plummeted from 49.5c to 8c, while the 140-159 option surged from 0.9c to 22.95c. This occurred because, as weekend posting data updated, market expectations for the final tally constantly swung between adjacent brackets, and thin liquidity amplified the price volatility. 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-03, high-frequency options such as 140-159, 160-179, and 180-199 experienced massive volatility (e.g., 140-159 crashed from 25c to 1.5c before rebounding to 19.95c), while the 40-59 option dropped from 21.8c to 6c. This was due to the start of the tracking period, where early posting pace uncertainty triggered drastic repricing amid thin liquidity.

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