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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Darko Hrka
YesNo
Cher Ndour
YesNo
Pere Pons Riera
YesNo
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
YesNo
Guéla Maho Lewis Doué
YesNo
Petros Mantalos
YesNo
Răzvan Gabriel Marin
YesNo
Dejan Petrovič
YesNo
Ray Kendry Páez Andrade
YesNo
Neven Đurasek
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 11:50 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is exhibiting extreme pricing inefficiency. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is approximately 355% (~3.55), whereas the theoretical total probability for a single-winner market should be 100%. This implies a massive bubble. Excluding Ray Kendry Páez Andrade (who crashed) and Neven Đurasek, the remaining 8 candidates are all priced between 42-45 cents, which is statistically impossible (average win probability should not exceed 12-15%). Therefore, fair values are adjusted down to ~12 cents to reflect a rational probability distribution.
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Rule Risk
While the core rule relies on official stats, the tie-breaker rule is highly arbitrary (alphabetical order of last name). This is a classic 'alphabetical trap' completely detached from sporting merit. If two players tie on yellow cards, the one with the alphabetically earlier surname wins, posing a significant risk to unaware traders.
Exotics
This falls into the upper-medium tier of niche markets. Compared to 'who will win' or 'top scorer', betting on 'most yellow cards' is a relatively obscure and speculative statistic. Such markets typically appeal only to deep sports bettors or data analysts, not the general public.
Movers
2026-03-14 to 2026-03-17, Ray Kendry Páez Andrade experienced extreme volatility. On March 14, his price spiked from ~39c to 68c (likely due to an in-game booking or rival elimination), causing all other candidates to crash to ~19c. However, this completely reversed on March 15, with Ray collapsing to 3c (likely due to team elimination or suspension), causing capital to flow back to the field, pushing other candidates back to the 40-45c range.
Divergence
The market prices imply that 8 different players each have a ~45% chance of winning, which is mathematically absurd. Mainstream sports data models would dictate that the sum of these probabilities must equal 100%, whereas the current market implied probability sums to 355%. This indicates a lack of effective market makers to correct prices or a misunderstanding of mutually exclusive rules by participants.
