All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Konstantinos Karetsas
YesNo
Hamza Igamane
YesNo
Igor Jesus
YesNo
Karol Świderski
YesNo
Adam Karabec
YesNo
Pavel Šulc
YesNo
Aral Şimşir
YesNo
Anass Zaroury
YesNo
Daan Heymans
YesNo
Darío Osorio
YesNo
Corentin Tolisso
YesNo
Bryan Zaragoza
YesNo
Antony
YesNo
Ricardo Horta
YesNo
Deniz Undav
YesNo
Angelo Stiller
YesNo
Matias Soulé
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 19:40 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market pricing logic is completely broken. All 17 options are priced between 45-50 cents, implying a total probability exceeding 800%, which is mathematically impossible for a mutually exclusive event (only one player can be the assist leader). Given the date (March 15, 2026), the Europa League is deep in the knockout stages; most listed players (e.g., from Belgian Pro League or bench players) are likely eliminated or statistically irrelevant. Fair value should be single digits (<5%), with eliminated players near 0.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
There is a significant tie-breaker risk. Typically, official tie-breakers involve minutes played. However, this market dictates that if multiple leaders exist, the winner is determined by 'alphabetical order of the last name'. This non-sporting tie-breaker is a major pitfall, especially since assist counts often end in ties.
Divergence
Extreme divergence between market and reality. The prediction market pricing implies roughly a 50% probability for every candidate to be the top assist provider, which is absurd in both mathematical logic and football reality. Mainstream sports data models would typically assign 20-30% to a leader and <1% to fringe players. Current prices are completely detached from the actual tournament state.
