All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Lukas Horníček
YesNo
Elías Ólafsson
YesNo
Dominik Greif
YesNo
Marco Bizot
YesNo
Álvaro Valles
YesNo
Mile Svilar
YesNo
Noah Atubolu
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 05:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market exhibits extreme irrational pricing, with the sum of 'Yes' prices reaching approximately 308%, despite this being a Single Winner market where total probability should not exceed 100%. Based on the rules, the tie-breaker is 'Alphabetical by Last Name', giving Noah Atubolu (starting with 'A') the absolute advantage (Nut Low Tie-breaker). Although Horníček has the highest market price, fair values must be aggressively adjusted downward to normalize probabilities. Atubolu is assigned the highest fair value because he wins any tie-breaker scenario.
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Rule Risk
There is a significant tie-breaker rule: if multiple goalkeepers tie and UEFA does not declare a single official leader, the winner is determined alphabetically by last name. This differs drastically from standard sports betting (which usually splits the pot or uses minutes played) and introduces arbitrary risk. Additionally, the definition of 'main tournament rounds' needs clarity on whether it includes qualifiers or starts from the league phase.
Movers
2026-03-14 to 2026-03-15, Mile Svilar's price crashed from 43.5c to 33.5c, due to critical Europa League knockout fixtures occurring on these dates; AS Roma likely conceded goals or faced elimination, causing market confidence to collapse.
2026-03-14 to 2026-03-15, Lukas Horníček's price surged from 45.5c to 49c, due to capital rotating towards him as a safer bet following Svilar's decline.
Divergence
Severe divergence. The total implied probability from market prices exceeds 300%, which is mathematically impossible. Mainstream sports data would identify a single leader, whereas the prediction market is pricing almost every candidate as a near-coin-flip (~50%) favorite, completely detached from reality. Participants are failing to price in the 'Single Winner' constraint or are engaging in irrational speculation.
