All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Elaine Luria
YesNo
James Osyf
YesNo
Nicolaus Sleister
YesNo
Burk Stringfellow
YesNo
Nila Devanath
YesNo
Patrick Mosolf
YesNo
Matt Strickler
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 15:40 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Elaine Luria, a two-term former Congresswoman for this district, holds a commanding lead. As of early 2026, her fundraising (over $1.1 million) is more than 5x that of her only serious remaining challenger, Matt Strickler (~$200k), and she enjoys high name recognition and establishment support. Media reports from December 9, 2025, indicate that primary rival James Osyf suspended his campaign to unite the party, yet he remains inefficiently priced at ~4% in the market. Given Osyf's withdrawal and Luria's massive resource advantage, her true probability of winning exceeds 90%.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media reported James Osyf suspended his campaign in December 2025, yet the prediction market still assigns him an implied probability of ~4%, representing clear 'dead money'. Conversely, Elaine Luria, a former representative with a multimillion-dollar funding advantage, is priced at 85%, which is below her true dominance (>90%) as the market fails to efficiently clear the probability space of the withdrawn candidate.
