What price will Ethereum hit on March 21?
Crypto|$12.6k Vol|
time5 hrs 49 mins

What price will Ethereum hit on March 21? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+9.7¢
↓ 2,100(Yes)
+1.9¢
↑ 2,200(No)
+1.4¢
↑ 2,250(Yes)

What price will Ethereum hit on March 21? AI analysis: • +9.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
Weather|$265.5k Vol|
time13 hrs 49 mins

Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22?

Top Undervalued
+6¢
14°C or higher(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
4¢
Arbitrage
1518%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy the Field. Purchase Yes contracts for all major options (14+, 13, 12, 11), with a total cost of ~96 cents for a 100 cent payout. Plan Description: The sum of all Yes prices is currently ~96 cents (44.5+33.5+13+2.2+1.6...). This indicates a clear p...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
While downtown Seoul (inland) is forecast to reach 16-17°C today, Incheon Airport (RKSI) is situated...
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Movers
March 21, 2026 (Early AM Seoul time), the price of '14°C or higher' retraced from a daily high of 61.5c down to 44.5c. The reason is likely 'reality setting in' as the event day began, with specific coastal forecasts (like Weather25's 13°C) tempering the earlier FOMO derived from downtown Seoul's heat. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '14°C or higher' surged from 30c to 61.5c, while '12°C' crashed from 27c to 8.5c, driven by traders overreacting to general Seoul forecasts of 16°C+.
Divergence
Market pricing leans towards '14°C or higher' (44.5%), aligning with macro forecasts for downtown Seoul (16-17°C). However, specific microclimate forecasts for Incheon Airport (e.g., Weather25) explicitly point to 55°F (13°C), creating a divergence with the market's favorite option. The market may be underestimating the marine cooling effect.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket event page, combine it with the latest temperature forecasts for Incheon Airport (RKSI) on March 22 from Wunderground and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and analyze whether the odds for popular options (e.g., 9°C-11°C) fully reflect meteorological fundamentals or if there is a discrepancy.
Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote
Elections|$13.5k Vol|
time21 days 1 hrs

Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP % of popular vote

Top Undervalued
+12¢
<36%(No)
+11.5¢
40-44%(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Independent polls (Medián, Závecz, IDEA) in March 2026 consistently place Fidesz between 37-39%, fal...
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Hedging
HUF
The Hungarian election result has a direct and significant impact on the Forint (HUF). A weaker-than-expected (or stronger) performance by the ruling party could trigger currency volatility. It also has a minor impact on the Euro due to market focus on Hungary-EU relations (rule of law issues, frozen funds). While HUF is the primary asset, the impact spills over slightly to EUR pairs given the geopolitical context.
Divergence
Market pricing is completely disconnected from fundamentals. The prediction market currently assigns roughly equal probability (Yes price ~40c) to all outcomes from <36% to 48%+, which is statistically impossible (Sum > 100%). In contrast, polling data and expert consensus strongly concentrate the probability mass in the 36-44% range. The market severely overprices tail risks (<36% and 48%+) and fails to differentiate the most likely outcomes.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task: Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment] Visit the Polymarket page to retrieve the latest order book status for the 'Hungary Election: Fidesz-KDNP %' market. Given the extremely low reported volume (~$12), analyze whether there is any effective bid/ask depth currently. If so, do the current market prices reasonably reflect the probability of Fidesz's performance in the upcoming April 2026 election?
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Culture|$1.3m Vol|
time284 days 1 hrs

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Spider-Man: Brand New Day(Yes)
+2.7¢
Toy Story 5(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Avengers: Doomsday remains the undisputed frontrunner, as a core Phase 6 MCU event with a virtually ...
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Hedging
DIS
This event serves as a fundamental catalyst for media stocks. Disney (DIS) holds the most contenders (Avengers, Toy Story, Star Wars), and its stock is highly sensitive to studio performance, particularly the recovery of the Marvel franchise. A record-breaking opening for 'Avengers: Doomsday' would act as a bullish driver for DIS, while a flop would be bearish. Warner Bros. (WBD) and Sony (SONY) are similarly exposed via their respective intellectual properties.
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
World|$845.0k Vol|
time100 days 1 hrs

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+12¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Downgraded the fair value for Option 'Yes' from 7 cents to 5 cents. Although 100 days remain, the fu...
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Hedging
Crude Oil
The most direct impact of an Iran nuclear deal is on oil supply. A deal typically implies sanctions relief, allowing Iranian oil back onto the global market, which would suppress oil prices. This is considered a Score 4 high-impact event. Gold might see minor movement as a safe haven (prices falling due to reduced geopolitical tension), and equities could see a slight boost from lower energy costs and reduced geopolitical risk.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market price (17% probability) implies a 'miracle' scenario or a misunderstanding of the resolution criteria (e.g., confusing unilateral surrender with a mutual agreement). However, mainstream news and geopolitical reality indicate total war (Supreme Leader killed, nuclear sites bombed, ceasefire rejected), with diplomatic channels completely severed. Typically, the probability of such intense conflict resolving into a formal nuclear deal within 3 months should be below 5%, suggesting the market pricing is significantly lagging behind the reality of the war.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'US-Iran nuclear deal' event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks.
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Politics|$932.9k Vol|
time465 days 1 hrs

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

Top Undervalued
+5¢
None by June 30, 2027(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
6¢
Arbitrage
5.15%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on all options (Paramount + None + Netflix + Comcast). Plan Description: Direct arbitrage opportunity exists. The sum of 'Yes' prices for all options is approximately 93.85c...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the simulated 2026 market context, Paramount (the Skydance entity) is the sole buyer with a...
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Rule Risk
There is significant rule risk. First, the rules explicitly mention a 'currently announced Netflix agreement' which does not qualify (this appears to be based on specific hypothetical or erroneous context, as no such finalized deal exists in reality), potentially misleading traders. Second, defining 'acquiring control' versus strategic partnerships or partial asset purchases can be ambiguous, especially with complex spin-offs or joint ventures. The exclusion of non-finalized announcements adds dispute risk regarding the definition of 'finalized'.
Hedging
WBD
PARA
NFLX
CMCSA
This event represents a major M&A transaction with direct and drastic impacts on the stock prices of the involved public companies. If WBD is acquired, its stock would typically see a massive premium volatility (Score 5). The acquirer's stock (e.g., Netflix or Comcast) would also experience significant movement due to capital pressure or strategic synergies. Additionally, Paramount (PARA), as a peer potential acquisition target, would be affected by industry consolidation sentiment. This is a highly significant event for hedging.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the odds spread between 'Netflix' (referenced in the rules regarding the announced agreement) and 'None by June 30, 2027'. Combine this with WBD's debt situation and regulatory rumors to assess if the market is overpricing the risk of deal failure or underestimating the time cost of antitrust review.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ 2,100
YesNo
5.5¢
98.6¢
15.2¢
84.8¢
+9.7¢
0¢
↑ 2,200
YesNo
3.95¢
96.05¢
4¢
98¢
+0.1¢
+1.9¢

Expand to view all 13 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0010, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0030, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0030, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 3: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0120, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 4: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0220, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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