Moderate risk. Resolution relies on a specific external tracker (xtracker). The rules regarding replies (only main feed replies count) and deleted posts (must remain for ~5 mins to be captured) are complex and may cause discrepancies between the tracker and user observations.

High novelty. This is a typical entertainment and crypto-community-focused novelty market. Outside of specific prediction market participants, the general public does not naturally ponder or predict the exact number of tweets an individual makes over a random 2-day period.

May 14, 2026 - May 16, 2026, the price of the '65-89' option soared from 6.5c to 94.5c, while the '40-64' option plummeted from 37c to 0.05c. This occurred because Musk's posting frequency increased significantly over the past two days, pushing the live tracker into the 65-89 bracket with only hours remaining, establishing a near-certain outcome. May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the '<40' option recovered from 42.5c to 53.5c, while '40-64' dropped slightly from 42.5c to 34.5c. This is due to market confirmation of his continued low posting frequency as the statistical window approaches. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the '<40' option dropped significantly from a high of 68.5c to 42.5c, while the '40-64' option rebounded strongly from 23c to 42.5c. The reason is that over time and with the recovery of his posting rhythm, market expectations corrected, anticipating Musk's posting pace to likely bounce back and stabilize in or near the 40-64 range. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the '<40' option surged from 46c to 68.5c, while the '40-64' option plummeted from 45.5c to 23c. This is because, approaching the statistical window, the market observed a lower recent posting frequency from Musk, thus significantly increasing the probability expectations for the lowest volume bracket.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, Charles Booker's price crashed intraday from 86.5c to 60.5c, before rapidly rebounding to 84c the following day. This extreme volatility occurred without significant negative news, likely due to thin liquidity as expiration approaches, causing a large order to temporarily distort the order book. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, all options experienced extreme volatility. Charles Booker plummeted to 48c, while Amy McGrath and all long-tail candidates spiked to around 50c. Prices rapidly reverted to normal on April 29. The reason is likely extreme liquidity depletion or a massive anomalous trade (fat-finger error), causing a temporary distortion in order books. March 14, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Charles Booker's price corrected from 84.5c to 77.5c, indicating profit-taking or sentiment correction after an over-bullish run, without significant negative news. During the same period, Amy McGrath rebounded slightly from 12.5c to 18c before falling back. February 25, 2026 - February 28, 2026, long-tail candidates experienced high volatility without breaching the 10c threshold. Joel Willett rebounded from 3c to 10.8c, while Logan Forsythe crashed from 6.5c to 0.85c, indicating market confusion in pricing the 'Other' tier liquidity. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the long-tail candidates experienced a collective crash. Pamela Stevenson dropped from 20.5c to 10.5c, while Logan Forsythe and Joel Willett both fell from 20c to 11c, due to the Feb 5 poll showing negligible support for them, triggering a market correction.