What price will Solana hit on April 1?
Crypto|$38.9k Vol|
time9 hrs 14 mins

What price will Solana hit on April 1? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
↑ 90(No)
+1.4¢
↑ 90(Yes)
+0.7¢
↑ 95(Yes)

What price will Solana hit on April 1? AI analysis: • +1.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
Weather|$26.1k Vol|
time283 days 5 hrs

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+36.5¢
1250+(No)
+18.1¢
950–999(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Despite early forecasts of a potential El Niño suppressing late-season activity, the active spring s...
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Exotics
Predicting annual tornado counts falls under the category of Weather Derivatives. While it is a serious topic for the insurance and reinsurance industries, it is a relatively niche and specialized subject for the general public and general-purpose prediction markets.
Movers
March 25, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of '950-999' surged from 9.5c to 19.85c, and '1200-1249' surged from 6c to 17c. The reason is a massive influx of irrational speculative buying pushing up 'Yes' prices across the board, causing the total implied probability to severely detach from fundamentals. March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the price of '<950' surged from 10c to 20.5c. The reason is likely the market overreacting to updated forecasts predicting a return of El Niño by summer/fall; traders may be aggressively betting on suppressed late-year activity, ignoring the currently active spring season.
Divergence
The market pricing shows a fundamental mathematical divergence: the sum of implied probabilities for all 'Yes' options has reached 168.5%, directly violating the rule that mutually exclusive outcomes should sum to ~100%. Furthermore, meteorologists generally expect 2026 to track near the historical average (around 1200), whereas the market is assigning irrationally high premiums to extreme tail outcomes (1250+ and <950).
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book depth (specifically liquidity for extreme options like '<950' and '1250+'), and combined with NOAA historical average tornado data, assess if current odds for each bracket deviate from climatological 'fair value'.
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 2?
Weather|$26.5k Vol|
time17 hrs 14 mins

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 2?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
14°C(Yes)
+5¢
15°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest prediction market prices, the current probabilities are mainly concentrated ...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a single day is a typical weather prediction market. While people check weather daily, trading on specific degree ranges is somewhat niche and mostly appeals to weather enthusiasts or local residents.
Movers
2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of '14°C' surged from 19c to 42c, as approaching weather forecasts increasingly confirmed that the daily high temperature is highly likely to fall within this range. 2026-03-30 to 2026-03-31, the price of '16°C or higher' plummeted from 41.5c to 14.5c because weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of unusually high temperatures as the date approached. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '11°C' spiked from 17.5c to 31.5c before falling back to 2.9c, due to short-term weather forecast fluctuations causing temporary shifts in market expectations. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '10°C' plummeted from 17.5c to 1.45c as weather forecasts gradually confirmed that the temperature would be higher than this range on that day.
AI Analysis
What are the specific resolution rules for this market, and how does the Wunderground data source handle temperature precision and revisions for Warsaw Chopin Airport?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
Weather|$17.4k Vol|
time1 days 17 hrs

Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
16°C(No)
+2¢
15°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As April 3 approaches, weather forecast models have further converged. Due to expected rainfall, the...
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Rule Risk
The title broadly says 'Shanghai', but rules strictly specify the Pudong Airport station (ZSPD), which is coastal and can have a temperature variance from downtown. Additionally, resolving purely on Wunderground's integer Celsius data and ignoring post-finalization revisions creates pitfalls for traders relying on general weather apps.
Movers
March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 15°C option surged from 6c to 21c, as the latest weather forecasts indicated rain on April 3, leading to lower high-temperature expectations. March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the '20°C or higher' option plummeted from 28c to 2c, and the 19°C option dropped from 26.5c to 3.5c, because short-term forecasts became clearer and increased precipitation chances ruled out abnormal high temperatures. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the 16°C option surged from 17c to 37c, because forecasting models converged, ruling out extreme cold and heat, making this range the most likely outcome for the daily high.
AI Analysis
Explain the exact resolution criteria for this market, specifically how the highest temperature data from the Wunderground Shanghai Pudong Airport (ZSPD) station on April 3 is finalized and rounded to whole degrees.
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 2?
Weather|$38.8k Vol|
time17 hrs 14 mins

Highest temperature in Taipei on April 2?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
25°C(Yes)
+9.2¢
28°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest meteorological forecasts, the high temperature at Taoyuan Airport (Dayuan Di...
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Rule Risk
The title asks for the highest temperature in 'Taipei,' but the detailed rules explicitly state that resolution is based on data from 'Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (RCTP).' Since the airport is located in Taoyuan City rather than downtown Taipei, and temperatures often differ significantly between the two due to microclimates, this creates a major rule trap for traders who only read the title and check Taipei's forecast.
Exotics
Predicting the exact weather of a specific location on a given date is a niche novelty topic in prediction markets. While not extremely bizarre, the general public does not typically ponder such hyper-specific daily weather details unprompted.
Movers
Between Mar 31 and Apr 1, 2026, the price of '26°C' surged from 26.5c to 40.5c (before settling at 33c), and '27°C' rose from 9.5c to 20.5c. This was driven by updated weather models indicating reduced rain probability and cloud cover, pushing expected afternoon highs upward. Between 14:35 and 16:45 on Mar 30, 2026, the price of '26°C' plunged from 21.5c to 9.5c, as updated weather models reinforced the expectation that rain would suppress peak daytime temperatures. Between 19:05 and 20:10 on Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '29°C or higher' surged from 13c to 25.5c, '23°C' from 7c to 16c, '24°C' from 17c to 25c, and '25°C' from 16.5c to 24.5c. This was likely driven by speculative buying across multiple options due to a lack of market consensus, significantly inflating the overall Yes prices.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for the Taipei April 2 highest temperature market using the simplest language.
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 2?
Weather|$17.3k Vol|
time17 hrs 14 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 2?

Top Undervalued
+12¢
29°C(No)
+7.5¢
27°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Sao Paulo Guarulhos International...
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Exotics
Although weather derivatives exist in niche financial circles, betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a single day is relatively obscure and mundane, lacking broad social engagement and conversational appeal.
Movers
March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 0.29c to 0.395c, as some meteorological models indicated delayed rainfall, increasing the potential for daytime heating. March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 0.055c to 0.265c, as short-term weather forecasting models adjusted high-temperature expectations upwards, making 29°C a strong contender. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the 23°C or below option plummeted from 0.0795c to 0.0035c, because short-term weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of extreme low temperatures.
Divergence
Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground and Google Weather) indicate a high of 27°C (80°F) for April 2, while Polymarket traders currently favor 28°C (36%). This divergence may be due to traders factoring in localized urban heat island effects at the airport station or slight lags in forecast model updates.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data for early April in Sao Paulo, what is the actual occurrence frequency of the highest temperature hitting extreme ranges like 33°C or higher versus 23°C or below?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↑ 90
YesNo
3.25¢
96.75¢
4.7¢
98.3¢
+1.4¢
+1.5¢
↑ 95
YesNo
0.75¢
99.25¢
1.5¢
100¢
+0.7¢
+0.7¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0660, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0110, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0040, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0290, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average

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