What price will Solana hit on April 9?
Crypto|$20.9k Vol|
time9 hrs 48 mins

What price will Solana hit on April 9? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+5.3¢
↑ 85(Yes)
+0.4¢
↓ 70(Yes)

What price will Solana hit on April 9? AI analysis: • +5.3¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
Politics|$17.3k Vol|
time265 days 5 hrs

Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+9.1¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market price is stable around 4.8c, essentially returning to its long-term fair value. W...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event and, given the low volume of ~$7,000, analyze the current bid-ask spread and order depth. Combining this with recent news regarding Kristi Noem's tenure as DHS Secretary, does the current pricing reflect genuine impeachment risk, or is it a distortion caused by liquidity illiquidity?
SAVE America Act becomes law by...?
Politics|$57.7k Vol|
time81 days 5 hrs

SAVE America Act becomes law by...?

Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
June 30(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296) passed the House, it faces a decisive legislative deadlock in...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Hedging
DJT
The SAVE America Act is a core political agenda item for the Trump administration (in the 2026 context per search results), aiming to tighten voter eligibility. Its passage would be seen as a significant political victory, likely boosting associated sentiment stocks like DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) as a proxy for his legislative control. For the broader market (S&P 500), the impact is negligible unless the bill becomes a 'poison pill' in funding negotiations leading to a government shutdown threat, which would generate only minor short-term noise.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest trading data for the 'SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)' event on Polymarket to analyze the order book depth and spread risk given the extremely low volume (5.051); simultaneously visit Congress.gov to verify the bill's current legislative status (e.g., committee review, scheduling) to assess if the market pricing fairly reflects the realistic probability of passage by March 31.
UEFA Champions League: Team to reach final
Sports|$42.8k Vol|
time27 days 5 hrs

UEFA Champions League: Team to reach final

Top Undervalued
+14¢
Barcelona(Yes)
+13.5¢
Atlético Madrid(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market implied probability sum is approximately 229.25% (theoretical total is 200% since...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, Bayern München's price surged from 43c to 59c, and Arsenal's price surged from 49.5c to 62.5c, while Real Madrid's price plummeted from 23c to 13c. This reflects the outcomes of the Champions League Quarter-Final first legs, where Arsenal and Bayern likely secured massive advantages, whereas Real Madrid suffered a heavy defeat or an upset. March 18, 2026 - March 20, 2026, Atlético Madrid's price crashed from 23.5c to 11c, likely due to a difficult Quarter-Final draw or a shaky performance in the Round of 16 second leg. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, Liverpool's price surged from 13c to 20.5c, reflecting strong market confidence following their qualification for the Quarter-Finals.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Order Book data on Polymarket for this event. Compare the implied probabilities of favorites like Man City, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich against official sportsbook odds. Also, check for any drastic price volatility caused by injuries or recent match performances to assess current arbitrage opportunities and risks.
OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
Tech|$18.6k Vol|
time81 days 5 hrs

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+54¢
60%+(No)
+17¢
70%+(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the market rules, the forecast requires an OpenAI model to achieve the specified score ...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Rule Risk
Critical Risk. There is a fatal date discrepancy: the Title states 'by June 30', but the Rules text explicitly specifies 'by February 28, 2026'. In prediction markets, the specific text in the Rules usually overrides the Title. This implies the effective deadline is in just 18 days, not 4 months. Furthermore, the reliance on Epoch AI as the resolution source poses a lag risk; if Epoch does not update the leaderboard immediately for the recently released GPT-5.3-Codex (Feb 5), the market could resolve 'No' despite model capabilities.
Exotics
Moderately Exotic. FrontierMath is a highly specialized, 'research-level' mathematics benchmark containing unpublished problems. While OpenAI models are mainstream, betting on specific percentage thresholds for this niche, high-difficulty benchmark is a topic for deep-tech industry watchers, not the general public.
Hedging
NVDA
MSFT
If OpenAI scores break 50% or 70% (current GPT-5.2 is ~40.3%), it validates that Scaling Laws are still effective for extreme reasoning tasks, bullish for MSFT (OpenAI backer) and NVDA (compute demand). Conversely, stalling at ~40% implies a reasoning ceiling. Since the baseline is already 40.3%, a jump to 45%+ is a credible signal for continued AI progress, carrying medium-impact price implications for AI-linked equities.
Movers
2026-03-30 - 2026-04-01, the price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 56.5c to 41c, as market participants gradually realized the hard deadline of February 28 had passed without success, causing the speculative bubble to deflate. 2026-03-14 - 2026-03-15, the price of the 60%+ option surged from 43.5c to 56c. The reason was likely market overreaction to the release of new OpenAI models (e.g., GPT-5.4), mistakenly assuming the release implied benchmark success, despite the simultaneous data showing a score of 47.6% (a failure). 2026-03-01 - 2026-03-02, the 50%+ option saw volatility driven by post-deadline speculation.
Divergence
The market prices deviate significantly from objective reality. Although the February 28, 2026 deadline set by the rules passed over a month ago, and no reports indicate OpenAI reached the 60% score prior to it, the prediction market still assigns a 41% probability. This divergence is entirely driven by irrational speculation by market users, failure to read the deadline clause in the rules, or unrealistic hopes for retroactive leaderboard updates.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity and spreads for different score tiers (45%+|50%+, etc.). Focus on the discrepancy between the title date (June 30) and the description deadline (Feb 28), and check user discussions to assess the risk of settlement disputes and capital lock-up periods caused by this conflicting timeline.
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?
Economy|$48.0k Vol|
time81 days 5 hrs

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Jones Act enjoys entrenched bipartisan support and is widely considered a cornerstone of nationa...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
The Jones Act is a long-standing political topic. While not as mainstream as general elections, it is central to logistics, energy, and trade policy circles. It is somewhat niche for the general public but certainly not a 'novelty' or impossible question, especially during periods of high inflation or disaster response.
Hedging
MATX
Repealing the Jones Act would cause a structural shock (extreme negative impact) to protected US domestic shipping carriers like Matson (MATX) due to the loss of their competitive moat. It could also lower domestic transport costs, slightly impacting Crude Oil (specifically regarding WTI-Brent arbitrage flows). This event has very high hedging value for specific stocks.
Divergence
The prediction market currently implies a 12.5% probability that the Jones Act will be repealed in the short term, which diverges significantly from mainstream political and maritime policy consensus. Mainstream experts consider the act virtually 'untouchable' in Congress due to strong union and defense lobbying, making it impossible to be overturned within an 81-day window absent a catastrophic crisis. The market's premium is primarily driven by irrational liquidity or excessive speculation over the definition of 'new legislation' rather than realistic political prospects.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest legislative updates on the Jones Act, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the extremely low $10 volume and order book depth, and assess the fair value, bid-ask spread risks, and whether any actual trading opportunity exists given the liquidity.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↑ 85
YesNo
69¢
37¢
74.3¢
25.7¢
+5.3¢
0¢
↓ 70
YesNo
1¢
99.9¢
1.4¢
99.9¢
+0.4¢
0¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0020, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Positive Factor 2: Distance to Yesterday Low Ratio, 0.0030, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday support test: distance of price relative to yesterday low Positive Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Positive Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, 0.0100, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0030, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0330, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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