What price will Solana hit on March 20?
Crypto|$30.3k Vol|
time11 hrs 39 mins

What price will Solana hit on March 20? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+2.3¢
↓ 85(No)
+1.1¢
↓ 80(No)

What price will Solana hit on March 20? AI analysis: • +2.3¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by...?
Trump|$278.4k Vol|
time10 days 7 hrs

Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by...?

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
March 31(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only 10 days remaining until March 31, the absence of concrete logistical preparations or diplo...
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Exotics
This is a specific and somewhat speculative geopolitical event. Delcy Rodríguez is the VP of Venezuela; a meeting with Trump would imply a significant pivot in US-Venezuela policy, placing this in the realm of niche but plausible geopolitical forecasting.
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Geopolitics|$81.9k Vol|
time285 days 7 hrs

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although the market price has slowly crept back to 23.5c, reflecting lingering fears of 'accidental ...
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Exotics
Given current Middle East tensions and President Erdogan's harsh rhetoric against Israel, this is not a completely random question. However, a direct conventional military conflict between a NATO member (Turkey) and Israel remains a very low-probability 'Black Swan' event, placing it outside the realm of standard geopolitical forecasting.
Hedging
Crude Oil
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
A direct military conflict between Israel and Turkey would be a severe geopolitical escalation involving a NATO member and a major Middle Eastern power. This would directly threaten energy transit and security in the Eastern Mediterranean, causing Crude Oil prices to spike (as a primary supply risk hedge). Gold would rally significantly as a safe-haven asset. Global equities (e.g., S&P 500) would likely sell off due to the sharp increase in uncertainty, and US yields could fluctuate on flight-to-safety buying.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market pricing (~24%) implies a relatively high risk of war, whereas mainstream IR experts and defense think tanks generally view the probability of a 'direct regular force conflict' between Israel and Turkey as under 10% (a black swan event), given NATO Article 5 and the US security architecture. The market appears to be conflating 'proxy warfare/hostile rhetoric' with the specific 'direct military encounter' definition used in this market, leading to an overestimation of risk.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the ~$22k liquidity depth and bid-ask spread. Combine recent aggressive rhetoric from Erdogan with the history of actual military restraint/trade between the two nations to assess if current odds are overreacting to diplomatic spats while ignoring the high threshold for actual 'direct military conflict'.
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
Elections|$64.5k Vol|
time227 days 7 hrs

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
Republican(Yes)
+1¢
Democrat(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although Wisconsin is structurally a quintessential swing state, current market pricing reflects str...
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political analysis (e.g., Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball) typically classifies Wisconsin as a 'Toss-up' or 'Tilt' state, implying win probabilities between 45%-55%. However, the prediction market assigns a 75% probability to the Democrat, pricing it effectively as 'Safe/Likely'. This divergence suggests traders are aggressively pricing in the macro factor of 'midterm penalty for the President's party,' whereas traditional media focuses more on the state's structural swing nature.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data for the 'Wisconsin Governor Election Winner' on Polymarket to analyze the current bid-ask spread and order book depth for a $1,000 entry. Combine this with user discussions regarding potential nominees (e.g., successors to Tony Evers or GOP challengers) to update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk.
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21?
Weather|$144.1k Vol|
time19 hrs 39 mins

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21?

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
4°C(No)
+9.5¢
6°C or higher(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although Environment Canada (EC) downgraded Saturday's high forecast to 5°C (with some tables still ...
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Movers
March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '6°C or higher' crashed from 66c to 28.5c, while '4°C' surged from 10c to 33.5c and '5°C' rose from 14c to 30c. The driver was Environment Canada updating Saturday's forecast, downgrading the expected high from 9°C to 5°C (some sources say 7°C) and warning of mixed precipitation or lingering cold air, triggering panic selling of the high-temp option in favor of cooler outcomes. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of '6°C or higher' rallied from 26c to 66c as short-term models briefly indicated a warm front would dominate, alleviating cold air concerns.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists: Mainstream outlet The Weather Network (TWN) still forecasts a high of 9°C for Saturday, whereas Polymarket pricing implies the most likely temperature is only 4°C. The market is positioned more pessimistically than even the official Environment Canada forecast (5°C) and is completely fading the warmer TWN outlook.
AI Analysis
Visit the Polymarket page for 'Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21' to analyze the thin order book (given the ~$5 volume) and current spread, and assess the fair value based on immediate weather fundamental data vs. the current odds.
PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Winner
Sports|$121.9k Vol|
time1 days 7 hrs

PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Winner

Top Undervalued
+31.6¢
Matt McCarty(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
31¢
Arbitrage
16800%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on Matt McCarty (Price ~0.684). Plan Description: This is a virtually risk-free 'free money' opportunity. Matt McCarty is currently at +3, T100, 10 st...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality. According to live data from March 20, Sung-Jae Im...
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Movers
March 19 - March 20, 2026, prices for players like Matt McCarty, Seong-Hyeon Kim, Max McGreevy, and Adrien Dumont De Chassart spiked from under 1c to the 25c-35c range instantly, despite no positive news (and often facing elimination). This collective surge completely contradicts their actual performance (most are near the cut line) and is likely caused by a severe market maker algorithm failure or liquidity crunch resulting in a squeeze. March 20, 2026, despite Sung-Jae Im taking the tournament lead (-7), his price is suppressed around 12c, indicating that market capital is erroneously locked in the aforementioned 'junk' stocks, causing a breakdown in the market's pricing mechanism.
Divergence
The market is severely detached from reality. In reality (mainstream media and leaderboards), the tournament leaders are Sung-Jae Im (-7), Brandt Snedeker (-6), and Pierceson Coody (-4). However, in the prediction market, the highest-priced options are Matt McCarty (31c) and Seong-Hyeon Kim (30c), both of whom are actually on the verge of missing the cut (+1 to +3). This price inversion is extremely rare and indicates the market is completely ignoring live scoring data.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the Valspar Championship Winner event to analyze the Order Book (specifically odds for favorites like Xander Schauffele or Viktor Hovland) and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and withdrawal risks.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ 85
YesNo
16¢
91¢
6.7¢
93.3¢
0¢
+2.3¢
↓ 80
YesNo
6.8¢
98.9¢
0¢
100¢
0¢
+1.1¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0030, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0110, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0030, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0120, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 5: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0310, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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