What will Trump say this week? (April 5)
Politics|$13.5k Vol|
time3 days 23 hrs

What will Trump say this week? (April 5) - AI Found +56.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.31 02:37
Top Undervalued
+56.5¢
Khamenei / Khomeini(No)
+41.9¢
Filibuster(No)
+37.4¢
Mad(No)

What will Trump say this week? (April 5) AI analysis: • +56.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As we enter the observation period (March 31) with less than 5 days to resolution, phrases frequentl...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?
Weather|$74.0k Vol|
time11 hrs 36 mins

Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
10°C(Yes)
+5¢
13°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Due to a cold front passing through, the highest temperature on April 1 will occur exactly at midnig...
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Movers
March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '14°C or higher' plummeted from 54c to 12c. The reason is updated short-range weather models indicating a faster progression of the cold front, making it unlikely for the midnight temperature on April 1 to hold at or above 14°C. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the prices of '11°C' and '10°C' steadily increased as forecasts further confirmed the high probability of the midnight temperature falling within this range.
AI Analysis
What are the exact win/loss conditions and resolution rules for the Toronto April 1st temperature market based on Wunderground data, explained simply?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 2?
Weather|$16.0k Vol|
time1 days 11 hrs

Highest temperature in Ankara on April 2?

Top Undervalued
+9¢
18°C(No)
+4.5¢
13°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than two days remaining until resolution, weather forecasting models have largely converge...
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Exotics
Betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a specific day is somewhat niche. Average people wouldn't think about it unless traveling or living there, though weather forecasting is a standard vertical in prediction markets.
Movers
From Mar 30, 2026 to Mar 31, 2026, the Yes price of '14°C' plunged from 31¢ to 20¢, while '16°C' surged from 14¢ to 29¢, because short-term weather models revised expected temperatures upward, shifting the most likely high back to 16°C. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 30, 2026, the Yes price of '17°C' dropped sharply from 26.5¢ to 4.5¢, as updated forecasts largely ruled out unseasonable warmth for the target date. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '16°C' surged from 16¢ to 29¢, because the latest meteorological models converged on a high temperature of around 16°C. From Mar 29, 2026 to Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '20°C or higher' plunged from 25.5¢ to 15.5¢, as updated weather forecasts closer to the target date reduced the probability of an unseasonably warm peak.
AI Analysis
What exactly are the resolution rules for this Ankara temperature market, and how is the Wunderground data finalized?
Highest temperature in Toronto on April 2?
Weather|$12.1k Vol|
time1 days 11 hrs

Highest temperature in Toronto on April 2?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
4°C(Yes)
+4.5¢
6°C or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As April 2 approaches, short-term weather forecast models become significantly more accurate and sta...
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Exotics
While daily weather forecasting is ubiquitous, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city within narrow 1-degree Celsius intervals is a niche and somewhat novelty-driven prediction market activity.
Movers
March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '6°C or higher' option surged from 25.5c to 61.5c, while the '3°C' option plummeted from 33c to 4.5c, alongside drops in '4°C' and '5°C'. This was driven by short-term weather models confirming a significant warming trend as the resolution date approaches. March 29, 2026, the price of the 3°C option surged from 17.5c to 33c before pulling back, driven by severe volatility in market expectations following earlier updates to short-term weather forecast models.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data for Toronto Pearson Airport, what is the actual statistical frequency of the highest temperature falling into each of these specific ranges (e.g., 6°C or higher, -4°C or below) on April 2?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 1?
Weather|$21.6k Vol|
time11 hrs 36 mins

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+19.5¢
16°C(Yes)
+12.5¢
14°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts and meteorological models (such as ECMWF and GFS), the maximum...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact highest temperature on a specific day in Istanbul is quite obscure for the general public. Typically, only dedicated weather enthusiasts or prediction market participants would actively research this specific question.
Movers
From March 29, 2026, to March 30, 2026, the price of the 17°C option surged from 7.5c to 32.5c, and the 16°C option climbed from 17.5c to 32c, as new weather models indicated potential afternoon clearing leading to higher expected peak temperatures. On March 29, 2026, the 15°C option jumped from 12c to 27.5c due to upward revisions of earlier, cooler forecasts.
AI Analysis
How reliable is the NOAA temperature data for Istanbul Airport (LTFM), and what are the risks if the data source stops updating or experiences missing data on April 1?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 2?
Weather|$10.9k Vol|
time1 days 11 hrs

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 2?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
28°C(No)
+4¢
26°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only two days until April 2, weather forecasts are highly certain. Current meteorological data ...
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Exotics
Although weather derivatives exist in niche financial circles, betting on the specific high temperature of a particular city on a single day is relatively obscure and mundane, lacking broad social engagement and conversational appeal.
Movers
March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 0.055c to 0.235c, as weather forecasting models adjusted high-temperature expectations upwards as the date approached, making 29°C a strong contender. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the 23°C or below option plummeted from 0.0795c to 0.0035c, because short-term weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of extreme low temperatures.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data for early April in Sao Paulo, what is the actual occurrence frequency of the highest temperature hitting extreme ranges like 33°C or higher versus 23°C or below?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Khamenei / Khomeini
YesNo
99.45¢
0.55¢
43¢
57¢
0¢
+56.5¢
Filibuster
YesNo
99.9¢
0.1¢
58¢
42¢
0¢
+41.9¢

Expand to view all 22 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The biggest trap is that written statements (like Truth Social posts) explicitly do not count; only publicly recorded audio/video counts. Given Trump's frequent social media posts, traders might easily misinterpret a text post as a 'Yes'. Furthermore, exclusions for AI-generated media and recently posted old videos significantly increase the difficulty and risk of disputes.
Exotics
Predicting whether a politician will say highly random and bizarre specific phrases like 'Plastic Egg' or 'Eight Boats' within a week is a classic novelty market. Ordinary people would absolutely never consider such questions in standard political analysis.
Movers
March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of Jerusalem surged from 45c to 67.5c, as escalating Middle East tensions led Trump to mention it more frequently in his speeches. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of Eight Boats / Eight Ships surged from 61.5c to 74c (reaching 87.5c intraday), as Trump reused this signature metaphor in recent rallies. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of Congo surged from 55c to 72c (reaching 87c intraday), likely due to specific news events or speech topics. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of Sunday surged from 41c to 73.5c, as the approaching Easter weekend makes it highly likely Trump will mention the day. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of Epic Fury surged from 55.5c to 76.5c, because Trump has frequently used this phrase in recent rallies or statements, leading to high expectations of continued use. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of Kuwait surged from 49c to 66c, due to Middle East tensions and troop-related topics prompting comments from Trump. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the prices of Mine dropper surged from 41c to 60.5c, Divider from 41c to 60c, and Eight Boats / Eight Ships from 40.5c to 57.5c, as Trump heavily utilized these specific rhetorical figures and metaphors in his recent speeches.

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