All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Lerone Murphy
YesNo
Movsar Evloev
YesNo
Jean Silva
YesNo
Diego Lopes
YesNo
Arnold Allen
YesNo
Yair Rodriguez
YesNo
Aljamain Sterling
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.06 13:26 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the simulated context of early March 2026, Volkanovski just defeated Diego Lopes at UFC 325 on Feb 1st. This makes an immediate trilogy fight for Lopes virtually impossible, rendering his current market price (21.5c) as significant 'dead money'. Volkanovski has explicitly called out Movsar Evloev, who remains the most logical contender in the division. While Sterling has name value, he sits behind Evloev in the meritocracy. The market's total 'Yes' probability sums to ~150%, indicating massive premium, specifically with Lopes and Sterling being priced far above their realistic sporting chances.
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
For MMA fans, this is a very standard topic of speculation, but for the general public, it is a niche sports entertainment market. It is less mainstream than elections or the Oscars, but not an absurdly novel concept.
Movers
March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026: Aljamain Sterling's price experienced extreme volatility, spiking from an intraday low of 17c to 38c before settling back to 21.5c. This intraday doubling suggests rumor propagation or whale manipulation, though it eventually reverted to the mean.
March 2, 2026 - March 5, 2026: Yair Rodriguez's price crashed from 25c to 2.2c. The market has fully digested Volkanovski's recent win and his focus on fresh contenders, causing older matchups like Yair to be completely discarded by traders.
Divergence
There is a significant irrational divergence. While Volkanovski himself and mainstream media analysis point towards Movsar Evloev (reflected reasonably in his 54.5c price), the market maintains a 21.5c valuation on Diego Lopes, which completely contradicts the reality that he just lost the fight. Typically, the probability of a loser getting an immediate rematch is extremely low; this pricing reflects either participants not updating their priors based on the result or a significant amount of dead money.
