Sports|$280.7k Vol|
287 days 4 hrsWho will be UFC Bantamweight champion at the end of 2026? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Aiemann Zahabi
YesNo
Cory Sandhagen
YesNo
Petr Yan
YesNo
Umar Nurmagomedov
YesNo
Deiveson Figueiredo
YesNo
Sean O'Malley
YesNo
Mario Bautista
YesNo
Merab Dvalishvili
YesNo
David Martinez
YesNo
Marlon Vera
YesNo
Song Yadong
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 06:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market aggregate premium has cooled to approximately 109%, indicating a return to rationality. The significant price plunges of Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili over the last 48 hours (dropping ~15c and ~9c respectively) likely reflect growing confidence in Umar Nurmagomedov (rising to 19c) as the long-term division ruler, or a reassessment of immediate title bookings. Given the long duration until the end of 2026, the current pricing still slightly overvalues the incumbents' ability to hold the belt while underestimating risks like injury and new contenders. The fair value model now favors a triopoly (Yan, Merab, Umar), with Umar's long-term hold value being slightly undervalued by the market given his age and undefeated record.
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Movers
Mar 10, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, Petr Yan's price crashed from 45c to 29.5c, and Merab Dvalishvili dropped from 35c to 26c, while Umar Nurmagomedov rose from 14c to 19c. This indicates a sharp reversal in market sentiment, with capital fleeing established favorites (Yan/Merab) toward the rising threat (Umar), likely linked to Umar securing a title shot or favorable matchmaking news.
Mar 9, 2026 - Mar 11, 2026, Marlon Vera (dropped from 11.25c to 1.6c) and Song Yadong (dropped from 9.45c to 0.9c) experienced a crash typical of a 'pump and dump' correction or the debunking of rumors, returning to fringe contender status.
Mar 2, 2026 - Mar 5, 2026, Cory Sandhagen's price crashed from 18.5c to 6c, confirming his exit from the immediate title picture.
Divergence
Divergence exists. While Petr Yan still leads the prediction market at 29.5c, his recent crash (-15c) shows this lead is fragile. In contrast, the mainstream MMA analytical consensus often views Umar Nurmagomedov as the division's highest-potential fighter ('uncrowned king'). Given the settlement date is the end of 2026, the market's current pricing of Yan (10% higher than Umar) is likely driven by irrational fan bias, underestimating Umar's probability of long-term dominance.
