Sports|$22.8k Vol|
287 days 6 hrsWho will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Tom Aspinall
YesNo
Ante Delija
YesNo
Derrick Lewis
YesNo
Sergei Pavlovich
YesNo
Waldo Cortes Acosta
YesNo
Jailton Almeida
YesNo
Serghei Spivac
YesNo
Curtis Blaydes
YesNo
Ciryl Gane
YesNo
Marcin Tybura
YesNo
Alexander Volkov
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.05 10:22 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in an extreme irrational 'bubble,' with the sum of implied probabilities reaching ~185%. 1. **The Jon Jones Factor**: News on March 3, 2026, confirmed Jon Jones is negotiating a return for a 'White House event' in June 2026. If Jones competes and wins (either against Aspinall or for a vacant title), and is not listed, the market resolves to 'Other'. This heavily dilutes all listed options. 2. **Aspinall's Crisis**: Current champ Aspinall faces career-threatening eye injury complications (Brown's syndrome) and the threat of a Jones return, making 41c significantly overpriced. 3. **Dead Money**: Jailton Almeida (reportedly released/dropping weight) and Ante Delija (fresh loss, poor record) are effectively worth 0, yet trade at ~15c, indicating severe market inefficiency.
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Divergence
Extreme divergence exists. Market pricing implies a total probability of ~185%, which is logically impossible. The most glaring divergences are: 1. **Ante Delija (15.5c)** vs **Reality (0c)**: Delija just lost to Serghei Spivac on Feb 21, holds a 1-2 UFC record, and is nowhere near contention. 2. **Jon Jones (0c/Unlisted)** vs **Reality (30c+)**: Jones's return negotiations are public, yet he is unlisted. This makes 'Other' the highest-value bet, a factor the current market completely ignores by overpricing dead assets.
