All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Soldier Boy
YesNo
Mother's Milk
YesNo
Kimiko Miyashiro
YesNo
Ryan Butcher
YesNo
Frenchie
YesNo
Hughie Campbell
YesNo
Homelander
YesNo
Billy Butcher
YesNo
Annie January (Starlight)
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.06 05:37 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Given this is the final season (S5) of 'The Boys' and showrunner Eric Kripke has implied 'no one is safe' without renewal pressure, death probabilities for main characters should be significantly higher. Leaks from March 5, 2026 (e.g., Maxblizz) explicitly state that Homelander and Butcher will die in the final confrontation, and Butcher may kill Frenchie, Kimiko, and MM (mirroring the comic ending). Current market prices (~40-50c) reflect an uninformed uniform distribution, severely underpricing the certainty of death for the main antagonist (Homelander) and the terminally ill protagonist (Butcher), while overpricing the risk for the 'survivor' archetype characters (Hughie/Annie).
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Exotics
This is a classic entertainment/novelty market predicting the fate of fictional TV characters. While common among fanbases, it operates outside real-world political or economic logic, categorizing it as a non-mainstream derivative.
Divergence
Extreme divergence between market and consensus/leaks. Mainstream predictions and leaks from yesterday (March 5, Maxblizz) indicate Homelander and Butcher are certain to die (probability should be >90%), yet Polymarket assigns only ~45-49%. Conversely, Hughie is widely considered a survivor (death prob <20%), yet the market assigns a 42% death chance. The market is 'blind,' failing to reflect the latest narrative consensus in its pricing.
