May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, Rick Edmonds' price plummeted from 28c to under 5c, likely due to the fading of previous rumors or speculative sentiment that drove his earlier surge, leading the market to reassess his chances of winning. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, Rick Edmonds' price experienced extreme volatility, soaring from under 1c to a peak of 40.75c before falling back to the 18c-22c range. This erratic movement was likely driven by sudden campaign rumors, brief leaks of polling data, or speculative large-volume trading causing massive shifts in market sentiment. May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026, Rick Edmonds' price surged from 0.25c to 21.95c, likely driven by a key endorsement or internal polling showing a massive spike in support, re-establishing him as a top-tier contender. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, Michael Echols' price dropped from 35.6c to 21.35c, likely due to cooling momentum or internal polling indicating a lack of solidified voter support. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026, Rick Edmonds' price surged from 7.9c to 20.55c, a jump of over 12 cents. Concurrently, Blake Miguez's price fell from 74.5c (on the 23rd) to 63.5c, indicating a tightening race likely driven by new endorsements or internal polling boosting Edmonds' momentum. Prior to April 21, 2026, the market remained relatively stable, with Blake Miguez holding the high ground around 85 cents.

May 12, 2026 - May 15, 2026, the price of Finland surged from 40.95c to a peak of 55.15c before adjusting to 51.7c, as public support for its victory continued to rise right before the final, leading to a further concentration of betting capital on the main favorite. May 12, 2026 - May 15, 2026, the price of Australia surged from 4.2c to 17.75c, driven by highly praised dress rehearsal performances before the final and expectations of high jury scores, attracting significant capital. May 12, 2026 - May 15, 2026, the price of Denmark plummeted from 14.45c to 3.55c, as expectations for its live performance significantly declined approaching the final, with capital shifting to other contenders. May 11, 2026 - May 15, 2026, the price of Greece retreated from its peak of 26.5c down to around 7.4c, due to market sentiment cooling down and profit-taking before the contest, bleeding out the premium previously driven by media hype. May 10, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of Greece surged from 11.85c to 26.5c, driven by strong positive reception from recent rehearsals or media exposure as the contest approaches, prompting a significant influx of capital. May 9, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the market remained in a stable fluctuation period. Finland maintained its lead in the 46-48c range. Apr 26, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Greece showed a strong upward momentum (rising from ~7.2c to 16.85c). Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, Australia demonstrated strong resilience, while Denmark established its status as the primary challenger stabilizing around 12.7c.

From May 11, 2026 to May 14, 2026, Cam Schlittler's price fell from 32.85c to 24.5c, Dylan Cease's price remained around 22c, Jacob deGrom's price rose from 10.1c to 15.35c, Parker Messick dropped from a high level to around 5c, and Max Fried dropped to 4.85c. This is due to market reassessment of the top pitchers as more regular season data is gathered. From April 26, 2026 to April 28, 2026, Parker Messick's price surged from 17.35c to 40.8c due to a dominant recent regular-season start that attracted heavy buying; meanwhile, Jacob deGrom spiked from 6.35c (April 27) to 37.05c (April 28) before crashing back to 7.45c (April 29), indicating short-lived hype or mispricing. Tarik Skubal also spiked from 23c to 36.5c before settling at 28.5c, reflecting intense market speculation. From April 11, 2026, to April 14, 2026, Garrett Crochet's price plummeted from 22c to 7.5c, while Jose Soriano's price surged from 2.65c to 14.15c before settling at 10.55c. This was caused by dramatic market reactions to early regular-season pitching performances, with Crochet likely struggling in his initial starts and Soriano displaying excellent form. From March 28, 2026, to March 29, 2026, Ranger Suarez's price crashed from 27.45c to 11.6c, Jacob deGrom crashed from 37.5c to 11c, and Tarik Skubal fell from 44.5c to 22.5c. This was caused by widespread anomalous trading or a liquidity shock on March 28, which caused the prices of several top pitchers to spike momentarily, followed by a swift correction back to rational levels over the next two days. From March 12, 2026, to March 13, 2026, Hunter Brown's price crashed from 25c to 9c, while Dylan Cease rebounded from 5.25c to 13.95c. This was caused by an extreme liquidity squeeze or mispricing event on March 12, followed by a swift market correction.

May 10, 2026 - May 14, 2026, Michael Collodi's price surged from 35c to 49.5c, and Hugo Lloris fluctuated violently between 38c and 49.5c, driven by ongoing illiquidity where small anomalous buy orders easily push up prices. April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Joe Willis surged from 33c to 50c, Oscar Ustari from 35.7c to 50c, and Chris Brady from 39.8c to 50c. The reason is the continued evaporation of market liquidity, where indiscriminate buying has pushed almost all options toward the 50c mark, exacerbating a systemic pricing collapse. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the price of Lucas Hoyos surged from 1c to 43.6c, and Rafael Cabral surged from 19.2c to 41.9c. The reason is extreme illiquidity, irrationally driving up YES prices across mutually exclusive options and worsening the mispricing. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of Daniel surged from 23.1c to 49.9c, Roman Bürki surged from 22.8c to 49.7c, and over a dozen keepers like Chris Brady saw similar >20c jumps. This is due to severe illiquidity and extreme mispricing, creating a massive shorting (buy NO) arb opportunity. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the price of Brad Stuver surged from 3c to 23c, and John Pulskamp surged from 3c to 23c. The reason is likely an order book anomaly caused by extremely low liquidity, attributed to a bot malfunction or a fat-finger trade.

Polymarket's pricing for this event is completely broken, with the vast majority of goalkeepers absurdly priced between 40% and 70% to win. The sum of probabilities for mutually exclusive options exceeds 1500%, which entirely contradicts objective reality and mainstream sports analysis. It is physically impossible for 20 different goalkeepers to each have a ~50% chance of winning. This is a pure structural collapse caused by the lack of market makers in long-tail prediction markets.