The market prices imply a sum of probabilities > 350%, which is impossible for a mutually exclusive ...

Significant divergence exists between market pricing and external data. The prediction market implies a 73.5% chance for Shadowrocket, whereas mainstream App Store data sources (e.g., AppFollow, Appfigures) show HotSchedules currently ranking higher or at #1. This suggests speculative betting on potential events (e.g., internet censorship spikes) rather than reflection of the current actual ranking.

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature for Shenzhen Bao'an Airport on March 27,...

Between March 23 and March 25, 2026, the price of the 27°C option climbed steadily from 18.5c to 31c, while the 30°C option plummeted from 17c to 4c. The 23°C option also experienced high volatility before settling near 4c. This was driven by meteorological models (like ECMWF and GFS) converging as the date approached, locking the expected high temperature into the 26°C-28°C range and eliminating the likelihood of anomalous temperature extremes.

Recent weather forecast models (e.g., Wunderground, Time and Date) indicate a significant upward rev...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of 60-61°F surged from 17.5c to 31c due to weather forecast models upgrading the high-temperature expectations for March 27. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of 54-55°F plummeted from 28.5c to 4.5c as approaching forecast dates ruled out cooler weather scenarios. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of 56-57°F dropped sharply from 28.5c to 11c for the same reason, with increased forecast certainty shifting probabilities toward higher temperature brackets.

Based on the latest data, the '80-90M' bracket remains the dominant favorite, with its price fluctua...

MrBeast's video performance is a highly popular pop-culture topic with broad public interest, so it's not extremely obscure. However, betting on specific first-week view counts remains a niche 'novelty' market compared to traditional political or financial forecasting.

From March 25, 2026, 09:30 to March 25, 2026, 13:50, the '80-90M' option plummeted from 86.5c to 69.5c, while the '90M+' option surged from 11.5c to 27.5c. This was due to the market observing higher-than-expected view growth on Day 5, increasing the likelihood of breaching the 90M mark. From March 23, 2026, to March 24, 2026, the '80-90M' option surged from 21c to 70.5c, while '70-80M' crashed from 39c to 1.75c. This was driven by the release of 'Day 3' and 'Day 4' view metrics (showing views clearing 65M and approaching 72M), which effectively eliminated the possibility of an average performance and locked the trajectory above 80M. From March 21, 2026, to March 22, 2026, the '90M+' option saw high volatility, rising from 8c to 30c before settling at 25c, as the market debated whether the confirmed viral momentum was sufficient to challenge historic highs (90M+).

As of March 24, 2026, with only 7 days remaining until settlement, the probability is effectively ze...