Politics|$36.9k Vol|
287 days 5 hrsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31
YesNo
June 30
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 05:42 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
For the 'June 30' option: With only 3.5 months remaining and no major breakthrough on the front lines, the market is repricing risk, evident in the drop from 17c to 9c. Given that capturing fortified cities typically takes months, a near-term capture is highly unlikely; fair value is lowered to 8c. For the 'December 31' option: Prices fluctuate between 53c-64c. While military progress is slow, the rule counting a 'negotiated settlement' as 'Yes' provides a strong floor. Considering the potential for negotiations in H2 2026, 55c is a reasonable risk-adjusted price.
Sign up to view more information
