Politics|$1.2m Vol|
103 days 6 hrsWill the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
June 30, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the market rules, the necessary condition for this event was a formal declaration of war by the US Congress specifically between December 15 and December 31, 2025. As today is March 18, 2026, this historical window has long closed, and established facts confirm that no such declaration occurred during that period. Consequently, the outcome is deterministically 'No', rendering the 'Yes' option theoretically worthless with a fair value of 0.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy No
Plan Description:
This is a 'free money' Low Risk Yield opportunity. Since the resolution window (late 2025) has passed without a declaration of war, the outcome is locked as 'No'. However, likely due to liquidity issues, the market is still selling 'No' contracts at 98.6 cents. Buying 'No' is effectively purchasing guaranteed cash at a 1.4% discount. While capital is locked until settlement (~103 days), this translates to an annualized yield of approximately 5%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 5.03%
Rule Risk
There is a massive rule conflict here. The title implies a broad deadline (likely June 2026, based on the option and resolution date), but the detailed rules explicitly restrict the 'Yes' condition to a narrow two-week window between 'December 15 and December 31, 2025'. This discrepancy in timeframe is highly misleading, as users might assume the bet covers any time up to 2026.
Exotics
A formal US declaration of war on Venezuela is a geopolitical tail risk. While relations are historically tense, a formal declaration (requiring an act of Congress) is extremely rare in modern times. This is a serious geopolitical hypothetical, neither a daily topic nor completely absurd.
Hedging
Crude Oil
CVX
Gold
Venezuela holds massive oil reserves, and any formal declaration of war would immediately spike crude oil prices due to severe supply disruption risks. Oil majors with operational licenses in the region, like Chevron (CVX), would face direct asset and operational risks. Gold would rise as a safe haven. While the broader equity market might see a risk-off dip, the hedging effect is strongest in the energy sector.
Divergence
There is an absolute divergence between market price and reality. The real-world probability of the event is 0% (as the window has passed without occurrence), yet the prediction market retains a price of ~1.4%. This divergence does not represent a difference in mainstream opinion but rather reflects prediction market microstructure inefficiencies—specifically 'dead money' stagnation or algorithmic liquidity floors that prevent the price from converging strictly to zero.
