Moderate risk exists. The rule specifies that the April 10 data point is only 'finalized' once the next data point is available. This means resolution may be delayed, and early readings on April 10 could be revised, potentially misleading traders. Additionally, the strict one-decimal-point precision can cause disputes at boundary values.

April 6, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 40.0-40.4 option surged massively from 1.45c to 50.75c, and the 39.5-39.9 option saw high volatility by spiking to 56.5c before retreating to 33.5c, while options 39.0-39.4 and below plummeted (e.g., 38.5-38.9 dropped from 35c to 4.5c). The reason is that as the resolution date is imminent, the latest poll aggregation mean climbed significantly, shifting market consensus rapidly from below 39.5 into the 40.0+ territory. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the 39.5–39.9 option surged from 23c to 43.5c, and the 40.0–40.4 option surged from 2.6c to 19.45c, while the 39.0-39.4 option plummeted from 39.5c to 21.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, minor adjustments in the latest poll aggregator data likely shifted the mean towards higher brackets (39.5 and above), prompting rapid market realignment. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the 38.5–38.9 option plunged from 32c to 12c, and the 40.0-40.4 option dropped from 27.5c to 10c. The reason is that recent new polling data stabilized the aggregated average above 39% and below 40%, narrowing the uncertainty interval. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of the 40.5+ option plummeted from 26.5c to 4.5c. As the resolution date approaches, the likelihood of a massive surge in approval ratings was invalidated by data, causing the market to quickly price out extreme tail risks.

Weather prediction markets are a niche but established category. While forecasting the exact highest temperature in a specific city on a given day isn't a mainstream global topic, it is not utterly absurd due to the widespread availability of meteorological forecasts.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026: The prices for the 18°C and 19°C options saw significant increases of over 10c. The 18°C option rose from 18.5c to 31.5c, and the 19°C option climbed from 15c to 30.5c, while the 17°C option dropped from 38.5c to 22.5c. This shift was driven by updated weather forecasts predicting a high of around 19°C for April 10, causing the market to adjust accordingly. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026 (Historical): No options experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents. The market expectations for the temperature remained relatively stable.

April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, Doly Begum's price surged from 80.5c to 98.9c due to increased market confidence in her victory as election day approaches, coupled with concentrated liquidity. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, prices plummeted for Diana Filipova (20.5c to 0.55c), Fatima Shaban (20.5c to 0.3c), Pooja Malhotra (18.0c to 0.3c), Lyall Sanders (20.5c to 0.3c), April Francisco (16.0c to 0.45c), David Vedova (18.5c to 0.3c), and Peter Koubakis (18.5c to 0.35c) due to a market liquidity correction, bringing inflated non-frontrunner prices back to their fundamental probabilities.

April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the Yes price of '15°C' plummeted from 20.5c to 5.5c due to updated short-term weather forecasts confirming lower temperature expectations. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the Yes price of '18°C' plummeted from 13.5c to 1.05c as the possibility of higher temperatures was further ruled out. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the Yes price of '19°C' plummeted from 13.5c to 1.85c as the possibility of higher temperatures was further ruled out.