The core resolution term 'frame mogged' is highly subjective. While defined as Gorlock's frame 'visibly dominating' Clavicular's, the threshold for 'visible domination,' camera angles, and positioning when standing next to each other create significant ambiguity. Meme-based visual judgments are prone to disputes.

This is a quintessential internet subculture market, based on specific streaming memes (Mogging/Looksmaxxing) and interactions between niche internet personalities. The premise of betting on a physical frame comparison is absurd and completely alien to the general public.

Market resolution relies primarily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than X's native display. The main risks are that the tracker might miss posts due to API limits, misclassify replies that appear on the main feed, and introduce uncertainty regarding the ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts.

Predicting the exact number of tweets from a specific crypto leader in a given week is relatively niche and trivial. While such social media behavior markets are common in prediction markets, it is not a question the general public naturally contemplates.

April 4, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option surged from 74.5c to 99.6c, while the 40-59 option plummeted from 15.15c to 1.65c. This was caused by the tracking period entering its final hours, effectively locking CZ's actual post count within the 20-39 range and completely pricing out the possibility of reaching 40 posts. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the <20 option plummeted from 80.5c to 0.05c, and the 20-39 option surged from 21c to 97.85c. This was caused by CZ's actual post count crossing the 20-post threshold over time, leading to a fundamental reversal in market expectations. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of the <20 option plummeted from 29c to 1.5c, while the 20-39 option surged from 61.5c to 78.5c. This was caused by shifting market expectations as time progressed and post counts accumulated, likely due to a slight increase in CZ's recent posting activity. March 31, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the price of the <20 option surged from 49.5c to 89.5c, the 20-39 option plunged from 50c to 7.5c, and the 100-119 option plummeted from 29.55c to 0.2c. This was caused by the passage of time confirming CZ's persistently low posting volume, forcing market expectations to converge with reality. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the <20 option surged from 60.5c to 85.5c, the 20-39 option plunged from 42.5c to 15c, and the 100-119 option plummeted from 27.45c to 1.65c. This was caused by the gradual fading of earlier abnormal speculative buys in an extremely low-liquidity market, leading to a price correction towards historical norms (CZ's very low posting frequency). March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the <20 option plummeted from 69.5c to 49.5c, the 20-39 option surged from 27.5c to 50c, and the 100-119 option spiked from 4.35c to 29.55c. These drastic fluctuations were primarily due to the market's extreme lack of liquidity and low trading volume, making it highly susceptible to sudden spikes or drops from single small trades or limit orders.

This is a quintessential novelty/exotic market. Outside of prediction markets, the general public or financial institutions would never forecast or track the exact number of tweets a president makes in a specific week.

April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of '60-79' surged from 50c to 95c, while '80-99' plummeted from 30.5c to 2.6c. This occurred as the resolution approached and the actual posting pace indicated it would be highly unlikely to cross the 80-post mark, causing market expectations to firmly shift to the 60-79 range. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of '60-79' surged from 41.5c to 75c, '80-99' dropped from 47.5c to 27c, and '40-59' plummeted from 16c to near zero, as accumulated posting data and passing time significantly increased the certainty of the final count landing in the 60-79 range. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of '100-119' surged from 5.5c back to 23.5c and then fell to 2.6c, as the market continuously adjusted projections based on actual daily pacing, realizing the likelihood of hitting 100 posts in the remaining time is extremely low. April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026, '60-79' fluctuated violently between 30c and 43.5c, while '80-99' spiked from 26.5c to 44c before retracing, as participants continuously adjusted their projections based on the actual daily posting pace. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the 'Yes' prices of extreme options like '140-159', '160-179', '180-199', and '200+' plummeted from around 25c to 1c-3c. This was because market participants realized the impossibility of such high posting volumes, and arbitrage capital entered to buy 'No', significantly correcting the highly irrational pricing. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the 'Yes' prices of favored options like '40-59' and '60-79' fell from over 50c down to around 30c, alongside >10c drops in extreme options. This occurred as market participants began arbitraging by buying 'No' shares, correcting the previously absurd pricing. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the 'Yes' prices of multiple options such as '20-39', '100-119', and '200+' plummeted by 20c to 35c. This was due to extremely poor early market liquidity and irrational order book distribution, which was subsequently corrected by a small influx of rational capital.

The market relies on a specific third-party tweet tracker and has nuanced rules regarding 'replies on the main feed' and 'deleted posts'. Discrepancies between the tracker's data and manual observation may introduce moderate resolution risk.

Predicting the exact number of tweets by Iran's Supreme Leader in a specific future week is a highly niche and novelty entertainment topic that the general public rarely thinks about.

April 5, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the '10-14' option surged from 51c to 98c, while the '15-19' option plummeted from 21.5c to 2.8c. As only a few hours remained until resolution, the actual post count was essentially locked into the 10-14 range, prompting the market to completely price out other possibilities. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the '10-14' option surged from 41c to 74.5c, while the '15-19' option plummeted from 45c to 13.5c. As the deadline approaches, Khamenei's actual posting frequency remained consistently low, significantly increasing the certainty that the final count will fall within the '10-14' bracket, prompting the market to rapidly price out higher ranges. April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the '10-14' option surged from 22c to 61.5c. As the market passed its halfway point, Khamenei's posting pace remained highly stable at under 2 posts per day, making this bracket the most mathematically probable final destination. March 31, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the '20-24' option plummeted from 40c to 5.5c, and the '15-19' option surged from 20.5c to 38.5c. The reason is that as time passed, Khamenei's actual posting frequency was lower than expected, causing the likelihood of higher ranges to drop rapidly, leading the market to reprice toward lower brackets. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the Yes prices of all major options plummeted by 20c to 40c. The reason is that the market was initially extremely illiquid, leading to distorted prices. As initial trades occurred and market-making liquidity entered, prices began converging toward more reasonable ranges, squeezing out the artificial premium.