[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Long-Term Capital: Given that this market may not resolve until Dec 31, 2026 (multi-year lock-up), calculate the risk-free compounded yield of holding the same capital in DeFi protocols or US Treasuries until 2027. Does the current potential payout still offer a positive expected value after deducting this significant 'time cost'?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest IAEA reports on Iran's uranium enrichment and geopolitical news, then analyze the order book depth on Polymarket. Based on the definitions of 'non-combat detonation' and exclusion of 'dirty bombs,' re-evaluate if the current price accurately reflects the true probability of a nuclear test before the end of 2026.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost] APY Calculation for Long-Term Lockup: Given that capital is locked until Dec 31, 2026, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'No' (remains leader) option; compare this against the risk-free USDC rate in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave) to determine if the return justifies the long-term illiquidity.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for 'Poilievre out by 2027'; given his strong polling lead in Canada, analyze if the 'Yes' price realistically reflects the probability of a 'black swan' event (e.g., sudden scandal or health issue) or if it is merely market noise.

[Capital Lock-up] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given that the resolution date is June 2026, calculate the loss of risk-free DeFi yields for locking up capital during this period, and assess whether the current odds (especially for the "No" side) are sufficient to compensate for the two-year capital lock-up risk.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks regarding the likelihood of Iran completely ending uranium enrichment.

[Decision & Action] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize the above info to output a brief trading plan, including entry rationale for 'Shorting Yes' on spikes, target prices around the 2025 elections, and invalidation conditions triggered by escalating social unrest.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and user discussions. Combine this with the current Moroccan political context (e.g., RNI party status) to update the assessment of fair value regarding Aziz Akhannouch's tenure stability and liquidity risks.

[Opportunity Cost] Opportunity Cost of Capital Calculation: Given that this market may not resolve until December 31, 2026, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) for a 'No' position (assuming a win); compare this against current risk-free DeFi stablecoin yields (e.g., Aave/Compound) to analyze whether locking up capital for this duration is economically rational.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for the 'Yes' option; combine this with recent political developments in key Euroskeptic nations (e.g., Hungary, Netherlands) to reassess the fair value and deviation between the market odds and the actual probability of invoking Article 50 before 2027.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-Term Yield Analysis: Given the event runs until the end of 2026, calculate the implied Annual Percentage Yield (APY) of buying the 'No' side and compare it against risk-free Treasuries or DeFi stablecoin yields to determine if the two-year capital lock-up is justifiable.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polling data and independence rhetoric from the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Alberta's leading parties, analyze the current bid-ask spread and liquidity on Polymarket, and assess whether the market is underpricing political tail risks or overvaluing the status quo.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost] Long-term Capital Lock-up Calculation: Given the resolution date of December 31, 2027, calculate the implied Annual Percentage Yield (APY) of betting on the high-probability 'No' outcome at current prices; compare this against the 4-year US Treasury yield or DeFi stablecoin returns to determine if locking up capital for nearly 4 years offers a competitive risk-reward ratio.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze current liquidity and bid-ask spreads (Volume: $93k+); combining this with recent US-Venezuela sanction policy shifts, assess whether the current odds sufficiently price in the extremely low probability of the sequential hurdles: Maduro being extradited, facing trial, and being found guilty on 'all counts'.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (Stink Bids) on the 'Yes' side in low liquidity conditions to catch panic selling caused by holders losing patience due to procedural delays.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest legal status and custody news regarding South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book depth and user discussions regarding 'bail' or 'house arrest' possibilities, and update the assessment of fair value and potential risks.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Time Decay (Theta) & Silence Cost Analysis: Given the December 31, 2026 deadline, analyze how the intrinsic value of the 'No' option will naturally increase over time (Theta decay) if no major diplomatic breakthroughs occur in the next 3 months, and assess the urgency risk for holding 'Yes' positions.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book and user discussions. Combine this with the latest diplomatic updates as of March 2026 (e.g., active US mediation efforts) to update the assessment of fair value regarding whether a deal can be reached by year-end.

[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the Opportunity Cost of Capital for betting "No" on this market. If "No" shares are trading near 98-99 cents, is the annualized return until December 31, 2026, competitive against risk-free DeFi stablecoin yields (e.g., Aave/Compound)? Is it worth locking up liquidity for this long?

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the "Will Venezuela become 51st state?" market. Analyze the spread and depth—is the "No" side offering enough liquidity to enter without massive slippage? Given the extreme geopolitical unlikelihood, does the current price reflect a rational risk-free rate, or is it overpriced due to meme speculation?

[General] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize the extremely low volume and multi-option nature of the event to generate a 'Limit Order Only' trading plan, explicitly warning against using Market Orders to avoid instant losses due to slippage.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($26.97), visit the Polymarket page to check the bid-ask spreads and order depth for each option, assessing if pricing is inefficient due to liquidity drought and analyzing the potential slippage risk for 'making' or 'taking' orders in a zombie market.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of June 30, 2026, and assuming a DeFi stablecoin risk-free annual yield of 5%-10%, calculate the actual breakeven point required to buy and hold at current odds. Determine if locking up capital for two years offers a positive expected value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the latest odds trends and order book depth for 'European country gives Ukraine security guarantee'. Combine this with recent official statements from key European nations (e.g., France, Poland) regarding 'direct military intervention' or 'defense obligations' to assess if the current market price is overvalued or undervalued.

[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-Term Yield Calculation: Given the resolution date at the end of 2026, calculate the annualized percentage yield (APY) of holding a "No" position until maturity, and compare it against risk-free stablecoin yields in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave) to determine if the risk premium justifies locking up capital for this duration.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for "Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison," analyze the order book depth and user discussions, and combine this with recent rumors regarding the Central Military Commission's anti-corruption drive to assess if the current price is fair or reactionary.

[Category 2: Analysis] Historical Seasonality & The 'Temporary Truce' Pitfall: Review the frequency of 'temporary ceasefires' between Pakistan and Afghanistan during Ramadan or Eid over the past 5 years. Analyze whether these historical truces were typically 'informal verbal agreements' or 'publicly announced official deals'. Since the market rules explicitly exclude 'informal agreements' and 'humanitarian pauses', assess the probability that a Ramadan truce, if it occurs, would actually take a form that resolves this market to 'Yes'.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book Liquidity & Ramadan Ceasefire Fundamentals: Given the extremely low volume ($2.22) of this event, first inspect the Polymarket order book to determine if there is any actionable bid/ask depth or if the market is illiquid. Simultaneously, considering the current date (late Feb 2026) falls within/near the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, search for recent diplomatic buzz regarding a 'Ramadan Truce' or 'Eid Ceasefire' between Islamabad and Kabul to reassess the fair value and capital lock-up risk.