April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fluctuated from 61c to 58.5c and then surged to 77.5c. This is likely due to large trades in a long-dated, low-liquidity market or capital repricing fundamentals, reverting towards fair value. March 19, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' slowly retraced from 88c to 78c, driven by capital outflows and natural discounting in a long-dated, low-liquidity market lacking near-term catalysts. March 11, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' remained stable at 88c. This indicates that following a prior correction (rising from an undervalued 73c), the market has reached a consensus at a high-probability range, with volatility significantly decreasing.

April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of the Democratic Party fluctuated sharply between 59.5c and 80.5c, largely due to low market liquidity and short-term capital flows causing random swings. March 2, 2026 - March 5, 2026, prices remained stable, with the Republican Party hovering in the 14c-15c range and the Democratic Party at 81c. February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, the Republican Party price plummeted from 33.5c to 19.5c due to Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer issuing new policy guidance, confirming her commitment to the Cabinet and ending speculation of a congressional run.

April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the Yes price of the Republican Party plummeted from 48c to 37c before quickly rebounding to 48c, while the Democratic Party's price correspondingly surged from 52c to 64c before falling back to 47.5c. This was likely due to short-term illiquidity or an overreaction to unconfirmed polling data, which was subsequently corrected by arbitrageurs. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of the Republican Party plummeted from 52.5c to 38c before rebounding to 50.5c, likely due to a short-term liquidity shock or an overreaction to unconfirmed polling rumors. March 5, 2026, the price of the Republican Party surged from 42.5c to 57c, while the Democratic Party remained flat at 42c throughout the day. This dramatic volatility of over 14 cents in a single day suggests a significant influx of pro-GOP capital, rapidly correcting a potential mispricing or reacting to undisclosed internal polling data.

April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the Republican Party's price dropped from 23c to 15.5c before quickly rebounding to 25.5c. This short-term severe V-shaped volatility is highly likely caused by large trades impacting a low-liquidity market, rather than a substantive change in district fundamentals. April 5, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the market experienced extreme two-way volatility: the Republican Party's price spiked from 27.5c to 50c (Apr 6), plummeted to 22c (Apr 8), and then rebounded to 47c (Apr 9), while the Democratic Party saw a mirror inverse movement. This violent oscillation is highly likely driven by isolated large trades hitting a thin order book rather than substantial changes in district fundamentals. March 5, 2026, the market experienced a brief period of extreme volatility (flash crash/spike). The price of the Democratic Party dropped from 76.5c to 58c and quickly rebounded to 76.5c; simultaneously, the Republican Party spiked from 21c to 37.5c before retracing. This was likely due to a 'fat-finger' trade or a large order hitting thin liquidity. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the price of the Democratic Party surged from 58c to 75.5c (while the Republican Party plunged from 36c to 20c). The reason was a sharp market correction, adjusting the valuation from a previous 'Toss-up' to a 'Lean Democrat' status.

April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the Republican Party Yes price plummeted from 80.5c to 54c, while the Democratic Party Yes price surged from 15.5c to 36.5c. Given the unchanged fundamentals of UT-02, this drastic shift is highly likely caused by irrational large trades in a low-liquidity market. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the Yes price of the Republican Party option plummeted from 83c to 56c. Lacking district-level breaking news, this volatility is primarily attributed to large sell-offs or irrational capital flight in a low-liquidity market, leading to severe pricing inefficiencies. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the Yes price of the Democratic Party option plummeted from 24.5c to 10c, reflecting a self-correction of prices under low market liquidity, though it still failed to fully resolve the pricing inefficiency. March 5, 2026, the Republican Party price experienced a volatile downward trend from 82.5c to 73.5c (a 9c drop) within a few hours. While close, it did not trigger the 10c shock threshold, indicating liquidity fluctuations in the absence of new news. February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, prices remained extremely flat with the Republican option holding at 77.5c, indicating a stagnant market.

The prediction market currently assigns a 54% probability of a Republican win, which severely diverges from mainstream election forecasters and the deep-red nature of the district. UT-02 is traditionally a Republican stronghold, and mainstream consensus views the GOP win probability as exceeding 95%.

April 21, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the Republican Party Yes price dropped from 29.5c to 18c, a fluctuation of over 10 cents, primarily reflecting liquidity adjustments and the market's reassessment of Republican competitiveness within a narrow range. April 9, 2026 - April 11, 2026, market prices remained relatively stable. Democratic YES prices held at 71c, while Republican YES prices adjusted slightly between 20c and 25c. No single-directional severe fluctuations over 10 cents were detected. March 5, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the market prices remained highly stable. Democratic prices fluctuated slightly between 70c and 75c, while Republican prices stayed within the 21.5c to 23c range. No drastic directional sentiment shifts were detected. February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, the market remained relatively stable with no significant fluctuations exceeding 10 cents detected. Democratic prices oscillated narrowly between 70c and 71.5c, while Republican prices stayed within the 25c-27.5c range. These minor movements are likely due to daily liquidity adjustments rather than fundamental shifts.

The market pricing implies that all five seat brackets are equally likely to happen (41% each), which heavily diverges from mainstream polling data. The vast majority of mainstream polls (e.g., Channel 12, Walla) project Likud to secure between 25 and 29 seats, meaning this specific bracket should be priced significantly higher than the rest.

April 12, 2026 - April 16, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 84c to 56c before quickly rebounding to 79c. This was likely due to short-term procedural concerns or market liquidity fluctuations regarding the amendment's ballot placement, with prices recovering as doubts cleared. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026: No price movement exceeding 10 cents was detected. The market remains stable at the high level of Yes 78c. March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026: No price movement exceeding 10 cents was detected. The market remained stable at Yes 78c, reflecting the quiet period following the confirmation of the ballot measure.