This event is directly tied to AECOM's (ACM) earnings performance. If the actual earnings significantly beat or miss the $1.54 estimate, it will directly trigger a notable move in ACM's stock price (typically a medium-sized earnings day move of around 5%). Therefore, it holds significant trading and hedging value.

Cloudflare's earnings result will directly trigger significant volatility in its stock (NET), which typically moves well over 5% on earnings day, making it highly tradable and relevant for hedging. However, due to its limited market cap, the impact on broad indices like the Nasdaq 100 is negligible.

The direct underlying asset, Trade Desk (TTD), typically experiences severe stock price volatility (often exceeding 10%) following earnings releases, resulting in a high impact score for the individual stock. While its performance as an ad-tech leader can influence tech sentiment slightly, it is not large enough to cause significant trend movements in broad indices like the Nasdaq 100.

May 4, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' experienced significant volatility, plunging from 83c on May 4 to a low of 43.5c on May 5, before quickly surging back to 72.5c on May 6. This wild swing was driven by intense market speculation, positional adjustments, and mixed sentiment regarding macro ad spending constraints and AI-driven growth ahead of the May 7 earnings call. April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 51c to 91.5c before slightly retreating to around 85c. This upward momentum is primarily driven by heightened expectations of an earnings beat, fueled by broader signs of recovery in the digital advertising sector as the earnings date approaches. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' experienced extreme volatility. It surged from 56.5c on the 27th to 83c on the 28th, dropped to 51c on the 29th, and spiked again to 83.5c on the 30th. This heavy fluctuation is likely driven by intense speculation and conflicting data points regarding industry-wide ad spend as the earnings date approaches.

This event is directly tied to the earnings performance of Getty Images (GETY). An earnings beat or miss typically causes a significant price movement of around 5% or more in the underlying stock, providing direct hedging and trading value.

Traditional Wall Street analyst consensus is quite conservative at $0.01 to $0.02, which typically implies a lower probability of a significant beat. However, the prediction market currently assigns roughly a 50% probability to an EPS strictly greater than $0.02. This indicates that traders and speculative capital hold a significantly more optimistic view on the company's earning potential compared to mainstream institutional estimates, highlighting a clear divergence.

The earnings result directly dictates the price action of BuzzFeed (BZFD) stock. As a small-cap company, an EPS beat or miss typically triggers double-digit percentage price swings, offering direct hedging value, though it has zero impact on broader market indices.

May 3, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fluctuated violently between 12.5c and 31.5c, recently settling around 22.5c, likely due to divergent expectations on cost-cutting results ahead of earnings, amplified by low liquidity. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 52c to 20c, likely due to continued pessimistic expectations regarding the company's fundamentals and risk-aversion positioning as earnings approach. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 31c to 50c, potentially driven by short-term speculative buying or rumors regarding cost-cutting measures.

Papa John's (PZZA) earnings results will directly and significantly impact its own stock price. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers an intraday price fluctuation of around 5% or more, making it a classic tradable event with direct hedging value.

This event directly targets News Corp's (NWSA) earnings results. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers a noticeable intraday price swing in the specific stock (usually around 5%, classified as medium impact). Consequently, participating in this prediction market can serve as a direct hedge for long or short positions in NWSA equity.

A US bank failure typically triggers risk-off sentiment and a flight to safety. This would likely cause a drop in the Russell 2000 (which has high exposure to regional and mid-sized banks) and lower the US 10Y Yield as markets price in potential regulatory or Federal Reserve intervention. Gold would act as a strong hedge, likely rallying on systemic fears.

The market is currently pricing 'Yes' at 56%, demonstrating significant information lag or inefficiency. Mainstream media and the official FDIC website have already confirmed the May 1 bank failure, meaning the market is failing to price in a guaranteed event.

FOXA's earnings results will directly trigger significant volatility in the stock's price (often 5% or more), presenting significant correlation and hedging value. However, as a single company, Fox's earnings will have a negligible impact on broad market indices like the S&P 500.

Whether the earnings beat expectations or not directly dictates the post-earnings price action of Cisco (CSCO) shares, typically triggering a medium-sized (around 5%) tradable gap. Furthermore, as a major tech stock, its results can cause a minor sentiment spillover into the broader Nasdaq 100 index.

The earnings result for Pixelworks (PXLW) will directly and significantly impact its own stock price. An EPS beat or miss could trigger severe volatility; for a small-cap tech stock like this, daily price swings often exceed 10%. Therefore, it provides strong and direct hedging value.

Between May 1, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 83c to 49c, likely due to sentiment shifts in the semiconductor sector or institutional re-evaluation of earnings expectations. Between May 2, 2026, and May 3, 2026, the price rebounded from 49c to 61.5c, indicating a market correction after the sharp drop and re-establishing moderate confidence in an earnings beat.

The event directly predicts Draftkings's (DKNG) quarterly earnings (whether EPS beats consensus). An earnings beat or miss typically causes significant stock price movement for the specific company (usually between 5%-15%, corresponding to an impact score of 4). Meanwhile, as a mid-cap/growth stock, its earnings have a negligible impact on broader market indices like the Russell 2000 or S&P 500.

May 3, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 40.5c to 28c before slightly rebounding to 31.5c. This volatility was driven by investors derisking ahead of the May 7 earnings release, reacting to downward revisions in analysts' EPS estimates (some dropping to $0.16). April 26, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 73.5c to 39c. This was driven by Wall Street downgrades (e.g., MoffettNathanson) citing competitive threats from prediction markets, which caused a sharp decline in the stock price and heightened fears that the company will miss its quarterly earnings estimates.

This event is directly tied to Warby Parker's (WRBY) quarterly financial performance. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers significant price volatility in the individual stock (often 5%-15%), providing substantial direct hedging value for WRBY equity or options. However, the company is too small to impact broader market indices like the S&P 500.

There is a notable indicator divergence. Mainstream estimates and analyst consensus often point to an EPS of $0.10-$0.11, which typically refers to 'Adjusted (Non-GAAP) EPS'. However, the prediction market is pricing the 'Yes' option at only 27.5c, reflecting strong doubts that it will clear the $0.05 threshold. This is because the market resolves strictly on 'GAAP EPS'. While retail investors might be misled by bullish Adjusted EPS headlines, the low prediction market price accurately reflects the reality that GAAP EPS is often dragged down heavily by items like stock-based compensation.

This event is directly tied to the earnings performance of Opendoor (OPEN). An earnings beat or miss will directly trigger significant price volatility in the stock (typically ranging from 5% to over 15%), making it highly relevant for hedging and trading OPEN stock directly.

This event is directly tied to the quarterly earnings performance of Teleflex (TFX). Earnings results (especially EPS beats or misses) typically trigger significant price movements in the specific stock (often >5%), providing direct and substantial hedging value for TFX. Impact on broader market indices is negligible.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fell from 85.5c to 70c, mainly due to early profit-taking as the earnings report approaches, leading to a price pullback. April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fell from 91c to 74c, likely due to early investors taking profits and a rational pullback in market expectations as the earnings release approaches. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to 91c, likely due to capital inflows as earnings approach and market bets or internal expectations become clearer. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 89c to 50c, possibly due to early investors taking profits or unfavorable macro/industry rumors regarding the upcoming earnings. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' skyrocketed from 28c to 89c, likely because the market received preliminary signals of strong company fundamentals or optimistic earnings guidance.