The rules contain several potential traps: compound words (e.g., 'killjoy' counts for 'joy'), old clips, and AI-generated audio are all valid. More importantly, it strictly requires the episode to be added to the official YouTube playlist; special episodes not included in this playlist will not count, which could easily lead to resolution disputes.

This is a highly niche, entertainment-focused market. Guessing or counting the exact words and their frequencies spoken by venture capitalists on a podcast is a classic novelty bet; it is completely off the radar for the general public.

The event directly targets Shake Shack's financial metrics, meaning the earnings result (beat or miss) will directly drive intra-day and after-hours price action for its stock (SHAK). This is a standard earnings event that typically triggers a significant tradable move of ~5% or more, presenting medium-level impact and direct hedging value.

Datadog's (DDOG) earnings results will directly cause significant price volatility in its stock, often resulting in single-day movements exceeding 5% or even 10%. The impact on the broader Nasdaq 100 index, however, is negligible.

The outcome of this event directly reflects Airbnb's (ABNB) quarterly financial performance. An earnings beat or miss will trigger significant tradable price movements in ABNB shares (typically around 5%, making it a medium-impact tradable event). Because ABNB is just a single stock, the event will have a negligible real impact on broader market indices like the Nasdaq 100.

May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' pulled back significantly from 79c to 52c. This was driven by profit-taking ahead of the earnings release and resurfacing concerns over slowing global travel consumer spending, which cooled bullish sentiment. May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 38.5c to 79c. This recovery was driven by positive macro travel indicators suggesting strong Q1 bookings, combined with short-covering by investors ahead of the earnings release, which largely repaired the previous pessimistic sentiment. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 76.5c to 26c (before recovering slightly to around 38.5c). This sharp decline was driven by analyst warnings indicating a high risk of an earnings miss for Q1, negative sentiment sparked by media reports highlighting uneven host economics, and significant stock sell-offs by company insiders and institutional investors.

This prediction is directly related to the quarterly earnings performance of US Foods (USFD). If earnings beat expectations, USFD's stock price typically experiences a moderate movement (around 5%). It may also have a minor sympathy impact on industry peer Sysco (SYY).

This event is directly tied to the quarterly earnings performance of Akamai Technologies (AKAM). Whether the EPS beats consensus will immediately dictate the stock's after-hours and next-day price action, typically causing a medium-level tradable gap (~5%), making it a direct hedging instrument.

This prediction event is directly tied to the quarterly financial performance of MarketAxess (MKTX). Whether the reported EPS beats estimates typically causes a moderate to significant post-earnings price gap in the stock. Therefore, MKTX stock itself is a highly correlated asset with direct hedging value.

This event directly and almost exclusively dictates the price action of HubSpot (HUBS) stock post-earnings. An earnings beat or miss typically causes significant price movements ranging from 5%-15%, making it highly relevant for hedging HUBS directional or options positions. Its structural impact on broad indices like the Nasdaq 100 is negligible due to its relative market cap.

The outcome of this market directly drives the short-term price movement of Yelp's stock (YELP) post-earnings. An earnings beat typically triggers a significant price rally, and vice versa, making this event a perfect hedging tool against the stock's earnings volatility.

This event is directly tied to the quarterly earnings performance of Charles River Laboratories (CRL). An earnings beat or miss typically triggers a significant intraday price movement in the company's stock (often around 5% or more), making it a standard tradable event with a medium impact score. As an individual stock's earnings, its impact on broader macroeconomic indices like the S&P 500 is negligible.

This event is directly tied to BGC Group's quarterly earnings performance. An earnings beat or miss typically drives a medium-impact (around 5%) directional move in the stock's pre-market or after-hours trading, making it a significant hedging and trading catalyst for the stock itself.

The event directly predicts Rocket Lab's quarterly earnings performance, and the outcome will directly trigger significant volatility in RKLB's stock price (typically involving a price gap post-earnings), making it a highly direct hedging tool.

The event is directly tied to Wendy's (WEN) quarterly earnings report. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers a direct stock price movement of around 5% or more, making it a tradable event.

This event is directly tied to the earnings results of Wix.com (WIX). If EPS beats expectations, it usually leads to a moderate to significant fluctuation in its stock price, making it a directly tradable or hedgeable event, thus carrying a high impact score.

This event is directly tied to the earnings performance of Toast (TOST). An earnings beat (Yes) or miss (No) will directly cause a significant price gap and volatility in TOST shares. Therefore, it has a high-intensity direct impact on this specific stock.