Resolution heavily relies on a specific tracker (xtracker). The rules contain edge cases regarding 'replies' (counted if recorded on the main feed) and 'deleted posts' (counted if they survive ~5 mins). This creates a risk of divergence between the tracker's captured data and manual counts on the platform.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts by a specific public figure on a specific platform in a given week is a highly niche and novelty entertainment market. The general public rarely considers or tracks such granular details.

April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, prices for almost all options plummeted (e.g., '100-119' dropped from 48c to 22c, '200+' from 48.5c to 5.15c). The reason is that uncalibrated initial liquidity upon market creation pushed all 'Yes' options to roughly 40-50c, which were subsequently corrected by traders pricing in realistic weekly posting volumes.

This is a niche weather prediction market focusing on the highest temperature of a specific city on a specific day. While weather markets have a dedicated user base, it is not a mainstream topic that most people naturally ponder, giving it a moderate level of novelty.

There is a divergence between market prices and mainstream weather forecasts. The option '39°C or higher' trades at a relatively high 32.5c on Polymarket, implying traders expect an extreme heat event. However, most current forecasts (e.g., Weather.com, AccuWeather) project peak daytime temperatures around 34°C to 37°C. This discrepancy could be driven by traders anticipating extreme climate anomalies or the specific airport station consistently recording higher temperatures than generic city forecasts.

Predicting the highest temperature in a specific city (Helsinki) on a given day is a highly niche market. Unless one is a weather enthusiast or a local resident, ordinary people rarely think about this, giving it a high novelty factor.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is not a core mainstream concern, but weather forecasting markets are a relatively common niche category in prediction platforms.

Betting on the daily high temperature of a specific city is somewhat niche and novel for the general public, though it is a standard topic within prediction markets and weather derivatives.

Weather forecasting is a niche but relatively established category in prediction markets. While predicting the daily high for a specific city isn't a major global issue, it is a common proposition for quantitative modelers and weather enthusiasts.

The rules provide a very specific definition for 'major closure,' requiring broad closures, cancellations, or suspensions, or affecting at least two of five specified airports. Partial, brief, weather-related closures, or restrictions unilaterally imposed by other countries/airlines do not count. These detailed conditions increase the difficulty of judgment and carry the risk that an actual closure might resolve as 'No' if it fails to meet the strict criteria.

A major closure of Iranian airspace typically signals an imminent significant military conflict or attack. Such a geopolitical black swan event would likely cause a spike in crude oil prices (due to fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Middle East) and drive up the price of safe-haven assets like gold, while potentially triggering a notable sell-off in major global stock indices like the S&P 500.

2026-05-01 to 2026-05-02, the Detroit Pistons' price surged drastically from 45c to 76.6c, while the Orlando Magic's price plummeted from 55.8c to 23.7c. Concurrently, the Cleveland Cavaliers dropped from 90.5c to 72.5c, and the Toronto Raptors surged from 8.1c to 27.5c. This indicates the Pistons staged a massive comeback in a do-or-die scenario to take control over the Magic, while the Raptors stayed alive against the Cavaliers. 2026-04-30 to 2026-05-01, the Boston Celtics' price fell sharply from 91.1c to 72.5c, and the Philadelphia 76ers rebounded from 9.1c to 29.4c. This was because the 76ers secured a crucial win to stave off elimination and extend their series against the Celtics. 2026-04-27 to 2026-05-01, teams like the Cavaliers, Pistons, and Raptors experienced drastic intraday swings. These extreme fluctuations indicate that the first round was in the heat of elimination or match-point games, where single-game results triggered massive probability re-evaluations. 2026-04-26 to 2026-04-29, the Orlando Magic's price surged from 43.2c to 68c before retracing slightly, indicating they briefly established an advantage in earlier crucial games.

Critical Risk. There is a fatal date discrepancy: the Title states 'by June 30', but the Rules text explicitly specifies 'by February 28, 2026'. In prediction markets, the specific text in the Rules usually overrides the Title. This implies the effective deadline is in just 18 days, not 4 months. Furthermore, the reliance on Epoch AI as the resolution source poses a lag risk; if Epoch does not update the leaderboard immediately for the recently released GPT-5.3-Codex (Feb 5), the market could resolve 'No' despite model capabilities.

Moderately Exotic. FrontierMath is a highly specialized, 'research-level' mathematics benchmark containing unpublished problems. While OpenAI models are mainstream, betting on specific percentage thresholds for this niche, high-difficulty benchmark is a topic for deep-tech industry watchers, not the general public.

If OpenAI scores break 50% or 70% (current GPT-5.2 is ~40.3%), it validates that Scaling Laws are still effective for extreme reasoning tasks, bullish for MSFT (OpenAI backer) and NVDA (compute demand). Conversely, stalling at ~40% implies a reasoning ceiling. Since the baseline is already 40.3%, a jump to 45%+ is a credible signal for continued AI progress, carrying medium-impact price implications for AI-linked equities.

2026-04-30 - 2026-05-01, the Yes price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 44c to 28.5c, as speculative sentiment rapidly faded with market participants further confirming that the hard deadline (Feb 28) had passed without a passing score. 2026-04-12 - 2026-04-15, the Yes price of the 60%+ option rebounded from 51c to 63c, likely because some traders bet on delayed updates to the EpochAI leaderboard containing undisclosed tests prior to the deadline, reigniting speculation. 2026-04-11 - 2026-04-12, the Yes price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 67c to 51c, as more market participants realized the deadline had passed and existing public data did not support success, triggering long liquidations. 2026-03-30 - 2026-04-01, the price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 56.5c to 41c, as market participants gradually realized the hard deadline of February 28 had passed without success, causing the speculative bubble to deflate. 2026-03-14 - 2026-03-15, the price of the 60%+ option surged from 43.5c to 56c. The reason was likely market overreaction to the release of new OpenAI models, mistakenly assuming the release implied benchmark success, despite the simultaneous data showing a score of 47.6% (a failure).

Yes. The hard deadline (February 28, 2026) has already passed in reality, and OpenAI's highest score was only 47.6%, making it impossible to trigger the Yes condition according to the rules. However, the market is still pricing the Yes option for 60%+ at 28.5c, reflecting highly irrational speculation and mispricing.

The specific definition of 'depeg' is crucial and often contentious in such markets. The duration of the depeg (flash crash vs. sustained for 24h), the threshold (below 0.99 or 0.95?), and the data source (single exchange vs. oracle average) must be clearly defined. Without detailed rules, disputes are highly likely during minor volatility.

A depeg of major stablecoins (e.g., USDC, PYUSD, DAI) would trigger systemic panic across the crypto market, leading to sell-offs in BTC and ETH. Coinbase (COIN) is heavily reliant on USDC interest income and ecosystem stability, while PayPal (PYPL), issuer of PYUSD, would face reputational and financial impact.

From April 30 to May 2, 2026, the price of USD0 crashed from 52.5c to 31c, as market panic subsided and previous concerns over its liquidity proved to be an overreaction, leading to a massive unwinding of long positions. From April 22 to April 25, 2026, the price of USDTb spiked from 18c to 30.5c, likely due to renewed market panic over short-term liquidity tightening or specific collateral risks. From April 17 to April 18, 2026, the price of PYUSD spiked from 6c to 16.5c, likely due to a sudden liquidity crunch or specific large trades causing a sudden spike in risk aversion. From April 5 to April 6, 2026, the price of PYUSD crashed from 17.5c to 7.5c. The reason was a market sentiment correction regarding the irrational panic premium on regulated fiat-backed stablecoins; liquidity restoration led to a massive unwinding of Yes positions. From March 12 to March 13, 2026, the price of USD0 crashed from 45c to 17c. The reason was a sharp market correction regarding the panic previously triggered by the USD0++ (bond token) depeg; investors realized the core protocol was unaffected, leading to a massive unwinding of 'Yes' positions. On February 23, 2026, USD1's price briefly wobbled to $0.994 due to a 'coordinated attack' and compromised co-founder social accounts, recovering quickly. On October 10, 2025, USDE flash-crashed to $0.65 on Binance driven by an internal oracle failure during a liquidity crunch, causing massive liquidations.

There is a significant divergence between the prediction market's pricing and the mainstream institutional consensus on stablecoin security. Mainstream financial and crypto security research generally views strictly regulated, 1:1 fiat-backed stablecoins like USDC and PYUSD as having near-zero risk of a fundamental depeg. However, the prediction market implies depeg probabilities (e.g., PYUSD reached 17c and sits at 7c) far above fundamental risk levels. This indicates that prediction market pricing is heavily driven by illiquidity and speculative tail-risk premiums, rather than purely rational fundamental probability assessments.