Marriott's (MAR) earnings directly impact its own stock price, with beats or misses typically causing medium-level fluctuations (around 5%). As a representative of the consumer and hospitality sector, its direct impact on the S&P 500 index is negligible, though it may have some sentiment spillover effects on related hospitality or travel ETFs.

Between April 29, 2026 and May 3, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 51c to a peak of 91.5c, before consolidating in the high 85c-89c range. This was driven by a massive influx of bets expecting a strong Q1 earnings beat as the release date (May 6) approached; despite short-term pullbacks from profit-taking, overall bullish sentiment remained high. Between April 25, 2026 and April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fluctuated narrowly between 50c and 51c, indicating a wait-and-see market approach with no clear catalysts during that period.

Whether Apollo Global Management's (APO) quarterly earnings beat estimates directly dictates its stock price movement. Typically, an earnings beat/miss triggers a stock price volatility of around 5%, constituting a medium impact (score 3). Its earnings have a negligible impact on broad market indices like the S&P 500.

April 30, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 73.5c to a peak of 88c before settling at 83.5c, as the earnings date approaches and Wall Street consensus estimates of $1.98 to $2.12 EPS further solidified market confidence in a beat against the $1.90 strike. April 27, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 48c to 81c. This was driven by recent earnings previews from research firms (such as Zacks) estimating Q1 EPS to be between $1.98 and $2.12, significantly higher than the $1.90 market strike, boosting investor confidence in an earnings beat. Prior to April 24, 2026, the price was relatively stable without any significant fluctuations.

Uber's total number of trips is a key operational metric measuring the growth of its rideshare and delivery businesses. The outcome will directly impact Uber's stock price upon earnings release and may have a minor spillover effect on key competitors like Lyft.

Between 2026-04-29 and 2026-05-02, the price of the 3.6B option climbed from 58c to 71.5c, indicating that as the earnings date approaches, market participants have regained further confidence in hitting 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-29 and 2026-04-30, the price of the 3.6B option recovered from 54c to 61c, likely because market participants reassessed the seasonal dip or received new unofficial data clues, restoring some probability of crossing 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-27 and 2026-04-28, the YES price for the 3.6B option plunged from 87.5c to 51.5c. This was likely due to market participants revising their Q1 seasonal dip estimates downwards as the earnings release approaches, significantly reducing the perceived probability of crossing 3.6 billion trips. Between 2026-04-27 and 2026-04-28, the 4.4B and 4.6B options experienced anomalous price spikes (to 5.45c and 6.0c respectively), likely caused by poorly executed trades by inexperienced market participants in a low-liquidity environment.

This event directly targets a core growth metric of DoorDash (DASH). The performance of total orders heavily influences market valuation expectations. An unexpected outcome in this metric is highly likely to cause significant price movement in DASH stock on the day of the earnings release (easily exceeding 10%).

April 29, 2026 - May 02, 2026: All options experienced extreme volatility (e.g., 980M surged to 47.4c before retreating to under 5c, while 900M and 920M briefly crashed to around 50c before fully recovering). This was driven by highly sensitive market sentiment just ahead of the earnings release, where speculative inflows triggered drastic repricing before rational expectations prevailed. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: The Yes price for the 980M option surged from under 8c to 47.6c, as the market heavily repriced the possibility of a major positive surprise ahead of the earnings release, shifting from extreme pessimism to cautious optimism. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: The Yes price for the 920M option briefly crashed to 49.5c before rapidly recovering and stabilizing around 92c, indicating that the market reaffirmed solid fundamentals after a brief panic. April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The Yes price for the 960M option plummeted from 40.5c to 20c, indicating a significant loss of market confidence in reaching this high target as the earnings release approached. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026: The Yes price for the 920M option dropped sharply from 94.5c to 58c, before recovering to 90c by the 29th, showing intense volatility and uncertainty in this range.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the '25+' option plummeted from 51c to 15c, and the '20+' option dropped slightly from 93c to 88.5c. This was caused by a fresh wave of negative reviews surrounding the film's official release, locking its Rotten Tomatoes score in the low 27% range. This triggered panic selling on Polymarket among traders skeptical that the score could hold above 25%.

Significant divergence exists. The film's current actual Rotten Tomatoes score is 27% (based on 23+ reviews). Competing prediction market Kalshi prices the 'Above 25' contract at ~81c. In stark contrast, Polymarket prices '25+' Yes at only 17.5c. This indicates that Polymarket's sentiment has severely detached from reality, drastically overpricing the risk of a steep drop in the final score.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Jane Dodds's price surged from 6c to a high of 23.75c before falling back to 10.55c, due to some investors expecting the Liberal Democrats to play a kingmaker role in a potential hung parliament, though the sentiment later cooled. April 30, 2026, Darren Millar's price surged from 9.3c to a high of 22.9c before dropping back to 13.5c, indicating a brief fluctuation and repricing of Conservative support ahead of the election. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of Rhun ap Iorwerth surged from 49.5c to 91c, while Eluned Morgan's price crashed from 20.5c to around 1.7c. This was due to a historic disruption in expectations leading up to the election, heavily favoring Plaid Cymru and pricing in a complete collapse of the Labour incumbent's advantage.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 77c to 90.6c. The reason was FIFA President Gianni Infantino explicitly reaffirming at the FIFA Congress that Iran will play in the 2026 World Cup in the US, and US President Donald Trump confirming to reporters that he is 'OK' with Iran participating, which removed market doubts about a potential US ban or visa block. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 83.5c to 77c. The reason was escalating geopolitical conflicts and reports that the Iranian Football Federation president was denied entry to Canada for the FIFA Congress, raising concerns about their participation prospects.

The earnings outcome directly dictates the post-earnings price action of Hinge Health (HNGE) stock. An earnings beat (EPS > $0.15) or miss typically triggers significant volatility (often >5%), making this event highly valuable for trading and hedging purposes.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 48c to 87c (peaking at 93.5c), likely due to significant positive rumors regarding Hinge Health's Q1 earnings beating estimates, or bullish sentiment spilling over from strong peer performance in the sector. No options have experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the preceding days (as per previous records).

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the '90+' option plummeted from 26c to 4.8c, and '85+' experienced severe volatility (dropping to 44.5c before recovering to 83c), while all lower-tier options (65+ to 80+) surged from the 70s to near 99c. This occurred because the movie was officially released on May 1, and its Rotten Tomatoes score stabilized in the 87%-89% range based on over 100 reviews. With the high volume of reviews making extreme score shifts highly unlikely, the market priced the 80+ tiers as near certainties and abandoned the 90+ threshold.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of claude-opus-4-6-thinking surged from 73c to 94c, driven by its sustained dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard and increasing market confidence as the resolution date approaches. Concurrently, other competing models (e.g., claude-opus-4-7-thinking, gemini-3.1-pro-preview) saw their prices plummet by more than 10c down to near 1c, reflecting their fading chances of taking the top spot.

This event directly correlates with Anheuser-Busch's (BUD) quarterly earnings performance. An earnings beat (Non-GAAP EPS > consensus) typically triggers a noticeable intraday price gap or volatility in the company's stock upon release (usually around a 5% move, meriting a score of 3). Consequently, this market serves as a direct hedging tool for investors holding BUD equities, options, or related consumer staples ETFs.

April 30, 2026 21:23 - May 1, 2026 15:48, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 74.5c to 95.0c, likely because as the earnings release date approaches, the market obtained strong insider information or analyst reports, greatly enhancing confidence in an earnings beat. April 28, 2026 13:03 - April 28, 2026 16:18, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50.0c to 67.0c, and subsequently rose further to 75.0c by April 29, 2026 20:28, likely due to a readjustment of earnings expectations by the market or new analyst forecasts/market news enhancing the probability of an earnings beat. April 28, 2026 07:08 - April 28, 2026 13:03, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 67.5c to 50.0c, likely due to the market's reassessment of the upcoming earnings report or new macroeconomic/industry information that reduced the likelihood of an earnings beat.

Whether Pfizer (PFE) beats EPS estimates will directly impact its stock price, typically causing a medium-level (score 3) movement for the individual stock upon earnings release. The impact on the broader S&P 500 index would be negligible (score 1).

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 76c to 96.5c, as analysts revised their Q1 EPS estimates for Pfizer upward to around $0.74, boosting market confidence that it would beat the $0.72 strike. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to 87c, as the market regained confidence in Pfizer's ability to beat earnings estimates after a brief panic, likely based on new guidance or analyst re-affirmations. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 85c to 50c, likely due to a market repricing of Q1 earnings expectations, potentially triggered by analyst downgrades or recent negative sector data. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' climbed steadily from 67.5c to 85c, as the market initially held an optimistic view that Pfizer would continue its trend of earnings beats.

This prediction event is directly tied to KKR's quarterly earnings performance. An earnings beat (or miss) is a classic tradable event that typically triggers medium to significant price gaps or intraday volatility in the individual stock post-release (usually around 5%), making it a direct hedging instrument.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded sharply from 51c to around 75.5c, likely due to positive read-throughs from peers' strong earnings or reassuring analyst notes revitalizing market confidence in KKR's fee-related earnings and realization activities as the release approaches. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 77c to 50c, likely due to unfavorable interpretations of macroeconomic or industry data as the earnings date approached, triggering a massive sell-off of bullish positions. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 59c to 77c, driven by strong early market optimism regarding KKR's AUM growth and robust capital market activities.

This prediction event directly impacts Sunoco's (SUN) stock price. An earnings beat (EPS > $1.63) typically triggers a stock rally, making it a tradable event with a medium impact score of 3. Given Sunoco's role in energy retail and distribution, there is a negligible and indirect connection to Crude Oil pricing.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 73.5c to 22.5c. The reason is likely due to downward revisions in EPS estimates by some analysts and market concerns sparked by the departure of the company's M&A leader. April 29, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 48c to 72.5c. The reason was optimistic pre-earnings outlooks and price target upgrades from firms like Mizuho driven by margin improvement expectations.

PayPal's earnings results will directly and significantly impact its own stock (PYPL) price, as an earnings beat or miss typically triggers a swing of over 5%. While PayPal is a component of the Nasdaq 100, the impact of a single company's earnings on the broader index is negligible.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' peaked at 92.5c from 86.5c before retreating to 79.5c. This is likely due to early investors taking profits as the earnings date approaches, causing a minor pullback after the top. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 51c to 85c. The reason is that as the May 5 earnings date approaches, market confidence in PayPal beating the $1.27 EPS consensus estimate significantly strengthened, likely driven by favorable payment industry data or strong whisper numbers. Previously, there were no price movements exceeding 10c, with the price remaining relatively stable between 50c and 53c.