This event directly dictates the quarterly earnings outcome for Marathon Petroleum (MPC). An earnings beat or miss will trigger an immediate and tradable price movement in its stock (typically around 5% or more on earnings day), warranting an impact score of 3 for MPC. While the company's refining business is exposed to crude oil and crack spreads, its earnings result has negligible impact on the global crude oil price itself (score 1). Overall, the event offers significant hedging value for the stock.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' climbed further from 68.5c and stabilized at 87c, as accelerating capital inflows ahead of earnings reinforced the consensus that strong Q1 fundamentals (like improved crack spreads) will lead to an earnings beat. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged continuously from 49.5c to around 89c, mainly because as the earnings date approached, strong Q1 refining margins attracted substantial bullish inflows, further driving up the probability of an earnings beat.

This event is directly tied to the earnings results of Integra Lifesciences (IART). Whether the earnings beat expectations will directly cause a moderate or higher fluctuation in IART's stock price (typically around 5% or more, depending on specifics), earning an impact score of 3. As a smaller-cap stock, its impact on the broader Russell 2000 index is negligible (score 1).

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' surged from 48c to 89.5c and sustained this high level, likely driven by strong market rumors or early guidance indicating an earnings beat, prompting aggressive one-sided bets ahead of the May 5 release. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' spiked from 46.5c to 70c before settling back to 48c, likely due to short-term trading volatility or bets on an earnings beat. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' rebounded from 17c to 50c, likely due to a market correction of the previous overreaction or the absorption of new forecast data. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' crashed from 57.5c to 17c, potentially due to selling pressure from short-term negative speculation regarding the medical device sector or specific company fundamentals.

Whether Amplitude (AMPL) beats or misses earnings estimates will directly and significantly impact its stock price (often causing a >5% move), classifying as a major tradable event for the specific equity. However, given its relatively small market cap, this event will have negligible spillover effects on broader tech indices like the Nasdaq 100.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fluctuated from 39.95c to 66.75c before settling around 57c. This was likely driven by a significant shift in market sentiment as the earnings date approached, potentially due to new capital inflows betting on an earnings beat, or the correction of previous extreme price swings caused by low liquidity. On April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 78c to 14.5c and quickly rebounded to 45.25c, likely due to a short-term liquidity shock or large individual sell orders causing an instantaneous price drop, which subsequently rebounded quickly.

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Carlos Alcaraz's price surged from 1.5c to 6.3c due to recovering market liquidity and a reassessment of his clay-court capabilities. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, Jannik Sinner's price rose from 62c to 67.5c, establishing him as the clear favorite, likely reflecting strong recent performances or favorable injury updates. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, prices across all options corrected from abnormally high levels (40c+ for everyone) to a more rational probability distribution.

The market implies a massive 67.5% probability for Jannik Sinner to win, compared to only 6.3% for Carlos Alcaraz. This significantly diverges from the mainstream tennis consensus, which views both players as closely matched on clay (with Alcaraz arguably having a slight edge). This divergence might suggest Sinner's exceptional current form, favorable injury/draw dynamics, or simply an imbalance in market liquidity.

On April 28, 2026, André Carson's price plummeted from 98.8c to 50.25c, before quickly recovering to 97.85c; simultaneously, George Hornedo spiked from 0.9c to 49.5c, Denise Paul Hatch spiked from 0.35c to 50c, and Destiny Scott Wells spiked from 0.85c to 49.5c. The reason is likely a momentary flash crash caused by abnormal large sell-offs or liquidity dry-up, but since the incumbent's absolute advantage remained unchanged, the prices were fully corrected by arbitrageurs within hours. March 29, 2026 - April 4, 2026, André Carson's price steadily climbed from 91.5c to 96c, while challengers George Hornedo and Destiny Scott Wells saw minor declines. The reason is that as the primary date (May 5) approaches, the market has absorbed the reality that challengers pose no substantial threat, causing funds to consolidate on the highly favored incumbent. Prior to this, fundamental news showed incumbent André Carson formally announced his re-election bid, solidifying his frontrunner status. While George Hornedo generated early buzz, his previous irrational market pricing near 50% was fully corrected due to a lack of data support.

May 2, 2026 (11:13 - 15:33) - The price for the '75+' option plummeted from 77c to 44c, likely due to new negative or mixed reviews being added on Rotten Tomatoes, causing the overall score to drop below or dangerously close to the 75% threshold. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026 - The '65+' option surged from 73.5c to 97.85c, the '70+' option surged from 65c to 87c, and the '75+' option surged from 24.5c to 81c, driven by the release of early reviews that exceeded initial expectations.

Extremely high risk. The title clearly states 'April 2026', but the rule description specifies the award for 'May 2026'. This glaring discrepancy will likely cause disputes, rerulings, or market cancellation.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The Yes prices of Pascal Gross, Alex Scott, and Noah Okafor experienced significant volatility (e.g., Pascal Gross plummeted from ~40c to 8c before rebounding to 47.5c). These fluctuations lack fundamental news support and are primarily driven by extremely poor market liquidity, where small exploratory trades or the removal/addition of liquidity pools caused sharp swings. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: All options remained at the initial or flat price of 49.5 cents, indicating the market had not yet entered an active trading phase.

Ferrari's (RACE) quarterly shipments are among the most critical operational metrics in its earnings reports. Whether this data beats or misses expectations directly impacts Ferrari's quarterly financial performance and market valuation, typically causing significant intraday or short-term volatility in the stock on earnings day. Therefore, RACE stock is the most direct hedging asset for this event.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the Yes price for '3,400' surged from 53.5c to 74c, while '3,500' dropped from 51c to 33c before rebounding to 43c. '3,600' and '3,700' also experienced sharp intraday dips and recoveries. This was driven by position adjustments in a low-liquidity market as the earnings release approached, triggering significant mispricing (including a logical arbitrage opportunity) and high volatility. Prior to this, trading volume had been extremely low, and no option had seen a price movement of more than 10 cents in earlier periods.

The market exhibits extreme internal divergence and mispricing. Logically, the probability of shipments exceeding 3600 cannot be higher than exceeding 3500. Yet, the Yes price for the 3600 option (47.5c) is higher than that of the 3500 option (42c). This indicates that due to severe lack of liquidity (volume is only ~14.28), irrational orders or capital mismatch by a few users have caused prices to significantly deviate from fundamental statistical reality.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' surged from 24.5c to 91.5c as weekend viewership data showed it taking a commanding lead for the #1 spot. April 30, 2026 - May 3, 2026, 'Man on Fire: Season 1' plummeted from a peak of 72c to 4c as it was overtaken by 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' over the weekend, losing its competitive edge for the top spot. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' saw a sharp spike from 10c to a peak of 45c before settling at 32.5c, reflecting sudden viral momentum and a market repricing of its competitive chances. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Running Point: Season 2' dropped from 42.5c to ~30.5c, losing its frontrunner status as competing shows gained stronger late-week traction.

This market directly correlates with Dupont's (DD) earnings performance. An EPS beat typically drives a significant tradable price movement in the underlying stock (usually around 3-5% intraday volatility). Furthermore, as a chemicals and materials giant, its results can exert a minor sector-wide sentiment spillover effect on the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB).

Between April 29 and May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 52.5c to 87.5c and stabilized. The primary catalyst was the crystallization of Wall Street analyst consensus expectations at $0.50 per share, above the market's $0.49 threshold, prompting a rapid and robust bullish repricing by traders. Between April 24 and April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to 84.5c, and then sharply dropped back to 50c on April 28. This extreme volatility was likely driven by speculative trading or large capital movements ahead of the earnings release, followed by a rational market correction back to the initial consensus.

This event is directly tied to the earnings performance of Paramount Skydance (PSKY). An earnings beat (or miss) is one of the most core catalysts driving short-term stock volatility, typically resulting in a moderate to significant price gap (around 5%) in after-hours or the following trading day. Therefore, it provides a strong, direct hedging opportunity for the underlying stock.

April 30, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' crashed from 52c to around 6c, as earnings expectations for PSKY deteriorated sharply. Mainstream financial platforms (e.g., Finviz) showed GAAP EPS estimates as low as $0.04, well below the $0.06 target, causing buying interest to vanish entirely. April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped significantly from 50c to 32c (reaching a low of 19c intraday), as market expectations for the upcoming earnings report turned pessimistic and buying interest dried up, shifting the probability rapidly towards 'No'. April 24, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of this option was stable around 50c, with no significant movement exceeding 10c, reflecting high initial uncertainty in the market.

The resolution of this event directly corresponds to Harley-Davidson's (HOG) quarterly financial performance. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers a noticeable swing in the stock price (usually around 5% volatility). Therefore, it carries a direct tradable price impact on HOG, making it highly suitable for hedging earnings season risk for this specific stock.

Between April 29, 2026, and April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 72.5c to 30.5c, before rebounding to 53c shortly after. This violent swing is likely due to illiquidity and slippage given the low trading volume (19.66), or a short-term unwinding/positioning by a trader, rather than a significant change in the company's fundamentals. Prior to this, no option had experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the past three days. The overall price trend was stable without significant fluctuations.

This event directly reflects the quarterly fundamental health of Celsius Holdings. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers significant gap moves and volatility in CELH stock (often swinging 5%-15% or more), providing a direct and highly correlated hedging opportunity.

April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 65c to 30.5c. This was driven by the market's realization that Q1 GAAP EPS will likely continue to be heavily weighed down by significant integration and restructuring costs from the Alani Nu and Rockstar acquisitions, making a beat of the $0.27 strike unlikely. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' briefly surged from 35.5c to 65c, driven by short-term speculation fueled by optimism over strong non-GAAP EPS estimates ($0.29-$0.31) and high revenue growth as the earnings release approached. April 25, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped rapidly from 49.5c to 35.5c, driven by severe market divergence on whether earnings would beat expectations, accompanied by potential profit-taking and early concerns over one-time expenses in the upcoming report.

April 23, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of Option 'Yes' rose from 35.5c to 50c. This is likely due to speculative buying on a distant election or short-term volatility caused by low liquidity, rather than any material change in fundamentals. Previous analysis: No price movement exceeding 10 cents had been detected in the prior 3-day window.

The current market price (Yes 44c) implies a near coin-flip chance of passage, which strongly diverges from the historical consensus (where it failed by huge margins) and mainstream political expectations that the measure will easily be defeated.

April 16, 2026 - April 19, 2026, Viking's price surged from 34.5c to 51c, Rosenborg's price spiked from 22.5c to 42.5c, and Bodø/Glimt dropped from 60c to 44.5c. The reason is extreme irrational buying or liquidity depletion in the market, causing multiple Yes shares to be simultaneously pushed to absurd levels. April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, Molde's price crashed from 24c to 4.5c, and Tromsø dropped from 27.5c to 11.5c before rebounding. This was caused by massive anomalous trading orders breaking the pricing equilibrium.

The market pricing is in extreme divergence with mainstream football consensus. Molde, a traditional powerhouse in the Eliteserien, having only a 4.5% implied probability is completely detached from reality. Furthermore, the combined win probability of just three teams (Bodø/Glimt, Viking, Rosenborg) exceeding 140% violates basic mutually exclusive probability logic. This indicates the market is currently reflecting technical distortions from capital mechanics rather than actual sports predictions.