AMD's earnings directly dictate the short-term trajectory of its own stock (AMD), typically triggering highly volatile price swings (high impact). Furthermore, as a leading semiconductor firm, its financial performance and forward guidance create strong sentiment and valuation spillovers for peers like Nvidia (NVDA), while also exerting a moderate marginal influence on the broader Nasdaq 100 index.

April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 52c all the way to 97.1c, before stabilizing around 94c. The reason is the massive influx of capital into the bullish option as market confidence in stronger-than-expected AI chip demand peaked right before the earnings release. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' jumped from 61.5c to 86.5c, before dropping back to 52c over the next two days, likely due to market overreaction to forward guidance from certain analysts or rumors, followed by short-term profit-taking.

Occidental Petroleum's (OXY) earnings results will directly determine the outcome of this event. An earnings beat or miss will directly trigger medium-level volatility in its stock price (OXY), typically around 3%-8%. As an oil producer, its performance may vaguely reflect industry conditions but has negligible actual impact on global crude oil prices.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50.5c to 93.5c, as the market likely digested strong whisper numbers or favorable commodity fundamentals heading into earnings, causing a sharp resurgence in bullish sentiment and heavy buying. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 82.5c (and 70c) to 50.5c, as the market likely digested new bearish forecasts or macroeconomic commodity price volatility as earnings approach, causing earlier extreme optimism to rapidly cool off. April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50.5c to 91.5c, due to analysts upgrading earnings estimates and the company's historical beat record attracting heavy buying.

This event is directly tied to the quarterly earnings performance of Charles River Laboratories (CRL). An earnings beat or miss typically triggers a significant intraday price movement in the company's stock (often around 5% or more), making it a standard tradable event with a medium impact score. As an individual stock's earnings, its impact on broader macroeconomic indices like the S&P 500 is negligible.

April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' skyrocketed from 50.5c to 88.5c and subsequently stabilized above 90c. The reason is that as the earnings date approached, the latest analyst estimates were revised up to $1.96 (above the $1.94 strike price), triggering aggressive bullish buying. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' briefly surged from 51c to 73c before retracing, reflecting early speculative large positions or short-term expectation trading. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price remained stable around 50c, reflecting an early balance of expectations between bulls and bears ahead of the earnings release.

The outcome of this event directly reflects the quarterly profitability of Cabot Corporation (CBT). An earnings beat or miss typically triggers a significant price gap or intraday volatility in the stock immediately after the release, making it a tradable earnings event.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 51c to 89.5c, as market confidence in Cabot beating earnings estimates increased significantly ahead of the release, likely driven by positive leading indicators or analyst sentiment. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' briefly spiked from 50c to 75.5c before quickly falling back to 51c. This could be due to short-term speculation or anomalous volatility caused by low liquidity, which was quickly corrected by the market. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 74c to 50c, stabilizing around 51c. This significant drop is likely due to an expectation recalibration ahead of the earnings report, or large market participants adjusting their bets down.

DoorDash's earnings performance will directly trigger significant price volatility in its underlying stock (DASH), as is typical for earnings events. This makes the prediction market a direct and practical hedging tool for investors holding DASH equity or options exposure through the earnings date.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' continued to decline from 60c to around 40c (briefly dipping to 19c). The reason is that as the earnings report approaches, market optimism further faded, and investors developed stronger doubts about whether the $0.36 EPS target can be achieved. April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 82.5c to 59c. The reason is the cooling of early extreme bullish sentiment, as some investors likely took profits, and the market adopted a more conservative outlook on the macroeconomic consumer environment, weakening confidence in a massive earnings beat. April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 47c to 82.5c. The reason is that as the May 6 earnings date approaches, market participants aggressively bet on an earnings beat, potentially catalyzed by bullish analyst notes or positive macroeconomic consumer data.

This event directly corresponds to the earnings performance of CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP). An earnings beat or miss (especially EPS) typically causes significant tradable price movements in the stock post-market or the following day, providing direct correlation and hedging value.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 43.5c to 68.5c, before retracing to 54c on May 2. This was driven by traders increasingly betting on an earnings beat as the reporting date neared, pushing the price up, followed by profit-taking that led to a rational price correction. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded from 23.5c to 43.5c. This recovery occurred as market participants reassessed analyst consensus estimates ahead of the earnings release, realizing that fundamental data supports a higher probability of EPS exceeding -$1.26, thereby correcting earlier extreme pessimism. April 26, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 48.5c to 25c. This sharp decline was likely driven by deep market pessimism regarding the company's ability to meet earnings expectations. Traders appeared to be heavily betting on another significant earnings miss following last quarter's disappointing results, expecting the EPS to fall below the -$1.26 threshold.

MicroStrategy's (MSTR) earnings report will directly trigger significant volatility in its stock, where an unexpected beat or miss provides a strong tradable opportunity. Additionally, because its balance sheet is deeply tied to Bitcoin, any changes in its holdings or strategic guidance revealed during the release may have a minor sentiment impact on the cryptocurrency market.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' further plummeted from 24.5c to 6.7c. The reason is that with the earnings release imminent, market expectations of massive impairment losses on Bitcoin-related assets have essentially been locked in, leaving the likelihood of beating estimates extremely bleak. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' continued to drop from 51c to 24.5c. The reason is that as the earnings release date approaches, the market has grown increasingly concerned about the negative impact of Bitcoin's price trends on the company's balance sheet, further downgrading the likelihood of an earnings beat. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 87.5c to 51c, as the market corrected its previous over-optimism and reassessed the potential negative impact of Bitcoin volatility on earnings as the release date approaches. April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 41c to 87.5c, likely due to market speculation driven by Bitcoin price strength or company-specific positive sentiment, leading to heavy betting on an earnings beat.

This event is directly tied to the fundamentals of Williams Companies (WMB). An earnings beat or miss typically causes an intraday or post-earnings price fluctuation of roughly 3% to 7% for the individual stock, making it a tradable event with significant impact. Spillover effects on broader market indices are negligible.

2026-04-29 17:38 to 2026-04-29 19:48, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 40.5c to 72.5c. This was driven by structural tailwinds in the natural gas sector and recent upward revisions of WMB's Q1 EPS estimates by analysts, prompting a rapid shift toward optimistic market sentiment.

Pinterest's earnings results will directly and significantly impact its own stock (PINS) price. Typically, earnings beats or misses trigger sharp high-single to double-digit price movements, making it an excellent target for trading or hedging.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 50.5c to 30.5c, indicating strong bearish sentiment just ahead of the earnings release, likely driven by negative news in the digital ad sector or institutional sell-offs. April 29, 2026 17:38 - 21:58: The price of Option_'Yes' spiked from 52.5c to 64.5c, before dropping back to 49.5c at 23:03, indicating brief but intense market divergence on earnings expectations.

Apr 27, 2026 - Apr 29, 2026, the prices of multiple fringe candidates like Ogen Driskill and Tara Nethercott saw abnormal spikes on Apr 28 (e.g., Driskill surged from 1.1c to 39.8c before correcting to 6.1c). This was caused by low market liquidity resulting in 'fat-finger' trades or indiscriminate short-term market sweeps, with no actual changes in political fundamentals. Mar 01, 2026 - Mar 03, 2026, Brent Bien's price drifted down from 10.25c to 2.7c, as support further consolidated around Eric Barlow and Megan Degenfelder, with the market discounting Bien's viability as a previous runner-up. Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 10, 2026, Megan Degenfelder's price surged from 53.5c to 71.6c, while Chuck Gray's price crashed from 36.7c to 13.5c, driven by reports that Gray declined to run for Governor, causing a rapid consolidation of the conservative vote around Degenfelder.

This event is directly tied to Warby Parker's (WRBY) quarterly financial performance. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers significant price volatility in the individual stock (often 5%-15%), providing substantial direct hedging value for WRBY equity or options. However, the company is too small to impact broader market indices like the S&P 500.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' further declined from 36.5c to 24.5c, continuing the previous sell-off trend, most likely caused by extreme deviations due to lack of liquidity or continuous short selling by large capital. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 75c to 33c. This is highly likely due to low liquidity or a large sell order causing short-term volatility, rather than fundamental negative news. April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 66.5c to 50c before rebounding to 75c, reflecting intense market speculation and positioning ahead of the earnings release.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market currently implies only a 24.5% probability for Option_'Yes' (EPS > $0.05). However, mainstream media and Wall Street analysts have a consensus EPS estimate of around $0.11 for Warby Parker this quarter. The severe pessimism priced into the prediction market heavily contradicts the optimistic consensus estimates from major institutions.

The event directly targets Shake Shack's financial metrics, meaning the earnings result (beat or miss) will directly drive intra-day and after-hours price action for its stock (SHAK). This is a standard earnings event that typically triggers a significant tradable move of ~5% or more, presenting medium-level impact and direct hedging value.

April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 74.5c to 94.5c. This was primarily driven by several investment banks (such as Raymond James and D.A. Davidson) reiterating Buy ratings and raising price targets ahead of earnings, confirming strong sales momentum and boosting market confidence. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 54.5c to 76.0c as the market priced in positive catalysts such as Q1 same-store sales tracking ahead of expectations and analyst upgrades.

This prediction event is directly tied to the quarterly financial performance of MarketAxess (MKTX). Whether the reported EPS beats estimates typically causes a moderate to significant post-earnings price gap in the stock. Therefore, MKTX stock itself is a highly correlated asset with direct hedging value.

From 2026-05-01 to 2026-05-02, the price of Option_'Yes' retreated from 80c to 69c, likely due to investors taking profits as the earnings date approaches, slightly cooling confidence in an earnings beat. From 2026-04-29 to 2026-04-30, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 52c to 72.5c, likely as the market repriced the likelihood of an earnings beat based on the recently announced record Q1 trading volumes. From 2026-04-27 to 2026-04-28, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 81c to 49c, potentially due to profit-taking from early buyers or new cautious sell-side notes. From 2026-04-26 to 2026-04-27, the price of Option_'Yes' spiked from 40c to 81c, driven primarily by retail enthusiasm following the release of robust preliminary Q1 volume metrics.

Whether Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) beats its earnings estimates will directly and significantly impact its own stock price (WBD). Earnings beats or misses typically cause medium to large price movements (Impact Score 3). Additionally, as WBD is a component of the Nasdaq and the streaming/entertainment sector, its results may have a negligible indirect impact on broader indices like the Nasdaq 100, but the primary shock is concentrated on the individual stock.

April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 49c to 23.5c, before rebounding to 43.5c on April 30. This was likely driven by the market digesting negative rumors or analyst downgrades as the earnings date approaches, followed by short-covering and bottom-fishing that brought the price back to its recent baseline.

McDonald's earnings results will directly cause significant price movement in its underlying stock (MCD) on the day of the release (typically a medium-impact, tradable event around ~5%). Additionally, as a bellwether for global consumer spending and the restaurant industry, its performance will have a negligible but existent spillover effect on the S&P 500.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded sharply from 54.5c to 81.5c. This was driven by quickly restored market confidence in McDonald's ability to beat the $2.75 Q1 EPS estimate, with dip buyers pushing the price back up. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 76.5c to 54.5c. This may be due to large traders adjusting positions or market concerns over potential revenue softness in McDonald's upcoming Q1 earnings report leading to a sell-off.