May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026: The prices for the 21°C and 22°C options surged from 6.5c and 4c to approximately 34.5c and 24.6c, respectively, while the 19°C and 20°C options plummeted from highs of 35c and 28c to around 5c and 15.5c. This was driven by weather forecast models significantly raising the estimated peak temperature as the date approached, rapidly shifting market consensus to warmer ranges. Other minor fluctuations remained stable with no movements exceeding 10c.

Betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a random day is a niche and unconventional topic. The general public rarely thinks about such micro-level meteorological details.

May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026: The price of the 13°C option surged steadily from 21.5c to 50.5c, as the resolution date approached and forecast models gained certainty regarding the impact of cold air and rain, lowering the expected high temperature into a cooler range. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The prices of the 15°C and 16°C options plummeted from highs of 28c and 15.5c down to below 3c, respectively, because as the date drew nearer, weather forecasts ruled out any warming trends, confirming overcast and rainy conditions.

The market currently heavily favors '60°F or higher' (39.5%) and '56-57°F' (33.5%), whereas mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Fox 32 Chicago) expect a high of around 54°F for the day. This indicates a divergence where the market pricing skews noticeably warmer than actual meteorological projections.