Lori Chavez-DeRemer's price has fallen back to 50c, but she remains the overwhelming favorite to lea...

This event has significant hedging value for specific sectors. The most critical correlation is with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (HHS); if he leaves, the biotech sector (XBI) could see sharp volatility due to the removal of regulatory uncertainty. Similarly, the departure of Pete Hegseth (Defense) could impact defense contractors (e.g., LMT). If Scott Bessent (Treasury) were to leave, it would create a macro-level shock to broad indices and Treasury yields.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares for all options (DP + PPP + PP + RP + RKP) Plan Description: The sum of Yes prices for all options is 96.4 + 2.6 + 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.15 = 99.55c. Buying Yes shares...

Based on the political landscape in early April 2026, the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) is overwhel...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: Given the current geopolitical landscape, the probability of mainland China implementing a full phys...

With less than three months remaining until June 30, 2026, implementing a full physical blockade mee...

This event would be a 'Black Swan' for the global economy. Given TSMC's (TSM) pivotal role in the semiconductor supply chain, a blockade would cause a crash in TSM and dependent tech giants (e.g., NVDA, AAPL), triggering a structural collapse in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Gold and Crude Oil would see violent volatility as war-panic assets.

As of early April 2026, with nearly 9 months remaining in the year, the market continues to price 7 ...

This is a geopolitical prediction. While not extremely bizarre (as US overseas military action is common), predicting the specific 'number of countries' is a niche military observation, more complex than simply predicting 'war or no war,' placing it in the upper-middle range of novelty.

This event is directly correlated with global geopolitical risk. An unexpected surge in the number of countries struck (e.g., >10) implies escalating global conflict or expanded counter-terrorism operations, which would significantly boost Crude Oil prices (especially if Middle Eastern producers are involved) and Gold (safe-haven demand). Defense contractors (like Lockheed Martin LMT, Raytheon RTX) would benefit from anticipated ammunition depletion and budget increases. US Treasury yields might fluctuate due to risk-off sentiment.

Based on the latest prediction market prices, crude oil is pricing in severe two-way volatility afte...

This market directly tracks Crude Oil prices, serving as a direct hedge for energy portfolios (Score 5). Significant oil price movements typically impact inflation expectations, thereby affecting US 10Y Yields, and act as a macro cost factor that can cause minor to moderate inverse movements or sector divergence in the S&P 500.

March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of [↑ $120] plummeted from 63.5c to 47.5c, and [↑ $130] fell from 47.5c to 37c, while [↓ $85] surged from 63.5c to 68.5c. This was due to profit-taking after crude oil bullish sentiment peaked at month-end, with spot prices undergoing a sharp correction, weakening the probability of upward breakthroughs and boosting expectations for downside targets. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of [↑ $110] surged from 69.5c to 86c, and [↑ $115] jumped from 58c to 72c, while [↓ $80] fell from 59.5c to 47c. This was due to crude oil bullish sentiment continuing to intensely escalate at the end of March, with geopolitical conflict upgrades or extreme supply disruptions pushing the probability of upside targets to extremely high levels. March 27, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of [↑ $105] surged from 68c to 87c, and [↑ $130] jumped from 33.5c to 53.5c, while [↓ $85] plummeted from 83c to 51.5c. This was due to continued strong performance in the crude spot market, with geopolitical or supply-side concerns intensifying, driving up call option premiums and significantly weakening downside expectations. March 26, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of [↑ $100] surged from 72.75c to 91.7c, and [↑ $110] jumped from 64c to 75.5c, while [↓ $80] dropped significantly from 73c to 55c. This was due to a sharp rebound in the crude spot market, with geopolitical tensions or supply disruption fears continuing to drive up call option risk premiums and weakening the probability of hitting downside targets. March 25, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of [↑ $100] surged from 63.15c to 89c, and [↑ $110] jumped from 46.5c to 69.5c, while [↓ $85] dropped significantly from 82.5c to 68.5c. This was due to a sharp rebound in the crude spot market, with geopolitical tensions or supply disruption fears regaining market dominance, causing call option risk premiums to soar rapidly. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of [↑ $100] surged from 63.15c to 81.2c, and [↑ $110] jumped from 46.5c to 66c, likely due to crude spot markets reacting to renewed geopolitical tensions or fears of supply disruptions, restoring high risk premiums to call options after their previous plunge. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of [↑ $110] plummeted from 71.5c to 46.5c, and [↑ $100] from 88.55c to 63.15c; meanwhile [↓ $85] surged from 52c to 82.5c, as crude prices crashed heavily on geopolitical de-escalation news, significantly increasing the probability of hitting downside targets and squeezing out previous panic premiums from calls. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of [↓ $90] surged from 63c to 99.95c, and [↓ $85] jumped from 52c to 76.5c, because crude oil prices crashed over 10% on Monday due to geopolitical de-escalation news, directly piercing the $90 level. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of [↑ $120] plummeted from 70c to 45c, and [↑ $100] retraced from 88.5c to 75c, as the sharp correction in spot prices forced a repricing of call options, squeezing out the previous panic premium.