Bitcoin above ___ on March 26?
Crypto|$35.0k Vol|
time5 days 23 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on March 26? - AI Found +12.9¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+12.9¢
74,000(Yes)
+10.8¢
76,000(Yes)
+9.8¢
72,000(Yes)

Bitcoin above ___ on March 26? AI analysis: • +12.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Winner
Sports|$121.9k Vol|
time1 days 7 hrs

PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Winner

Top Undervalued
+31.6¢
Matt McCarty(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
31¢
Arbitrage
16800%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on Matt McCarty (Price ~0.684). Plan Description: This is a virtually risk-free 'free money' opportunity. Matt McCarty is currently at +3, T100, 10 st...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality. According to live data from March 20, Sung-Jae Im...
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Movers
March 19 - March 20, 2026, prices for players like Matt McCarty, Seong-Hyeon Kim, Max McGreevy, and Adrien Dumont De Chassart spiked from under 1c to the 25c-35c range instantly, despite no positive news (and often facing elimination). This collective surge completely contradicts their actual performance (most are near the cut line) and is likely caused by a severe market maker algorithm failure or liquidity crunch resulting in a squeeze. March 20, 2026, despite Sung-Jae Im taking the tournament lead (-7), his price is suppressed around 12c, indicating that market capital is erroneously locked in the aforementioned 'junk' stocks, causing a breakdown in the market's pricing mechanism.
Divergence
The market is severely detached from reality. In reality (mainstream media and leaderboards), the tournament leaders are Sung-Jae Im (-7), Brandt Snedeker (-6), and Pierceson Coody (-4). However, in the prediction market, the highest-priced options are Matt McCarty (31c) and Seong-Hyeon Kim (30c), both of whom are actually on the verge of missing the cut (+1 to +3). This price inversion is extremely rare and indicates the market is completely ignoring live scoring data.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the Valspar Championship Winner event to analyze the Order Book (specifically odds for favorites like Xander Schauffele or Viktor Hovland) and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and withdrawal risks.
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Trump|$35.4k Vol|
time6 days 7 hrs

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

Top Undervalued
+23¢
Hezbollah / Hamas(Yes)
+13¢
Call your Democrat / Call a Democrat(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current simulated date is March 20, 2026. 1) **Geopolitical Dominance (Hormuz/Lebanon/Threat)**: Wit...
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Exotics
This falls into the highly customized 'Political Bingo' category. Participants are betting on specific vocabulary (slogans, locations, or catchphrases) used during a press briefing rather than substantive political outcomes. This micro-betting on rhetorical details is niche and novelty-driven.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'Sponsor of Terror' surged from 41c to 61.5c, driven by the deteriorating situation in Iran and the White House's increasing tendency to label the regime. March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'AI / Intelligence' rose from 41c to 65.5c, likely due to expected briefings on AI's role in intelligence or cyber warfare. March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'Illegal Alien' rebounded from 40c to 63.5c, indicating that while foreign policy dominates, immigration is returning as a core GOP talking point. March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'Threat' surged from 41c to 74.5c, reflecting generalized war rhetoric. February 25, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of 'Illegal Alien' plummeted from 83c to 40c due to a dramatic news cycle shift from border issues to the Iran war (Operation Epic Fury) and Hormuz crisis.
Divergence
Divergence exists. The market pricing for 'Regime 10+ times' (54%) seems overly optimistic; hitting that threshold requires repetitive messaging that is difficult to sustain in a briefing likely split between the 'SAVE Act' and foreign policy. Conversely, 'Go ahead 5+ times' (51.5%) is undervalued; as a procedural phrase used to manage reporters, it is structurally inherent to the format regardless of the topic, warranting a higher probability than currently priced.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Analyze the low-liquidity order book (Volume ~$6) and check the Roll Call/Factbase schedule to confirm if a briefing is actually planned before March 31, assessing the risk of the market resolving to 'No' due to a lack of eligible events.
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 21?
Weather|$19.8k Vol|
time19 hrs 43 mins

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 21?

Top Undervalued
+17.5¢
24°C or below(Yes)
+6.5¢
25°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Latest forecasts (Google/Weather.com predicting 24°C, Meteoprog 23°C) indicate rain (75% chance) and...
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of '24°C or below' surged from 25.5c to 56.5c, as approaching weather models confirmed rain and cooling trends for the 21st, eliminating earlier uncertainties about persistent warmth. March 17, 2026 11:20-14:35, this option experienced a brief flash crash from 25.5c to 10c, which was quickly arbitraged back.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists: Mainstream weather sources (Google, Meteoprog) forecast 23-24°C for the resolution location (Ezeiza), strongly supporting '24°C or below'. However, generic forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather for City Center) showing 26-27°C have caused the market to misprice/hedge significantly on 25°C (16.5c) and 26°C (20c), underestimating the true probability of <=24°C.
AI Analysis
Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data and visit the Polymarket page; given the extremely low volume of $5.05, analyze if the bid-ask spread is prohibitive and combine this with the latest Buenos Aires weather forecasts to determine if current odds are significantly mispriced.
# of seats won by GS in Slovenian Parliamentary Election?
Politics|$21.1k Vol|
time1 days 7 hrs

# of seats won by GS in Slovenian Parliamentary Election?

Top Undervalued
+58.5¢
<25(Yes)
+33¢
25-29(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 2 days until the Slovenian Parliamentary Election (March 22, 2026), major polls (e.g....
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Movers
March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '30-34' rebounded from 6.5c to 17c, and '40+' bounced from 1.2c to 6c. This sudden rally in long-shot options lacks fundamental support (GS polling remains poor) and resembles a 'dead cat bounce' or hedging activity by speculative capital in a low-liquidity environment. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of '<25' (the most fundamentally sound option) irrationally crashed from 46c to 29.5c, while '25-29' surged from 36c to 50c. This price action, completely contrary to polling trends, strongly suggests market manipulation or severe slippage caused by a lack of counterparties.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Major polls consistently place GS support at 15-20%, which mathematically corresponds to '<25' seats. However, the Polymarket currently prices '25-29' as the favorite (45c) and suppresses '<25' to 31.5c. This pricing implies that market participants are either betting on a historic polling error or that the market is dominated by irrational capital.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest Slovenian election polls (specifically for Freedom Movement/GS), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book structure given the extremely low liquidity ($30 volume), and combine with 2022 historical seat data to assess the fair value and potential odds discrepancies of each option.
"Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office
Culture|$28.7k Vol|
time2 days 19 hrs

"Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
8.5-10m(No)
+8¢
10-11.5m(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Given today is Friday (Mar 20), rumors of Thursday preview numbers typically filter into the market....
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Exotics
This is a specific movie box office prediction market. While box office forecasting is common in the industry, predicting the exact opening weekend figures for a specific horror sequel is a niche topic for the general public, unlike mass-appeal events like elections or the Super Bowl.
Movers
2026-03-19 - 2026-03-20, the price of '7-8.5m' plummeted from 33.5c to 15.5c. The reason is a secondary market correction as Friday opens; traders are discarding the 'flat performance' outcome based on incoming pre-sale signals, shifting capital to higher brackets. 2026-03-18 - 2026-03-18, prices for all options crashed (e.g., '8.5-10m' fell from 50.5c to 28.5c). The reason was a massive liquidity correction, compressing the total 'Yes' probability from an absurd >230% down to a normalized level near 100%.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Ready or Not 2' Opening Weekend market, analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity depth for the '10-11.5m' and '11.5-13m' brackets, and assess the risk of resolution disputes based on user discussions regarding the specific Box Office Mojo 'Daily' tab data source.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
74,000
YesNo
19¢
81¢
31.9¢
68.1¢
+12.9¢
0¢
76,000
YesNo
10.5¢
89.5¢
21.3¢
78.7¢
+10.8¢
0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0430, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0040, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, -0.0410, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0040, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0290, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

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