Bitcoin above ___ on March 29? - AI Found +13.7¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$32.5k Vol|

6 days 11 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on March 29? - AI Found +13.7¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+13.7¢

64,000(No)

+12.9¢

66,000(No)

+12¢

62,000(No)

Bitcoin above ___ on March 29? AI analysis: • +13.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Trump|$1.8m Vol|

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' (e.g., on Russia, India, Brazil). Plan Description: This is a risk-free opportunity. The event's resolution deadline (Feb 28) has passed, and the outcom...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

The resolution deadline for this event (February 28, 2026) has already passed. Based on public recor...

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There is a significant date discrepancy: the title states 'by March 31', but the rule text explicitly sets the deadline as 'February 28, 2026', which creates confusion for traders. Additionally, diplomatic language is notoriously vague (distinguishing 'agreement in principle' from 'formal joining'), making the interpretation of 'definitive announcement' subjective and prone to disputes.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: As it is the final hours of Resolution Day (Feb 28), immediately check the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for key options like 'China' or 'France' on Polymarket. Combine this with checks for any impromptu press conferences by Trump or the White House today to update your long/short strategy for the final sprint.

Sports|$1.4m Vol|

EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The total implied probability of the market is currently around 320% (Wolves 99.5 + Burnley 99.3 + W...

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Relegation from the EPL has massive financial implications (loss of broadcast revenue and brand value) for listed clubs like Manchester United (MANU). While relegation is highly unlikely for a giant like Man Utd, if it were to happen, the stock impact would be catastrophic (Score 5). For other non-listed clubs, there are no direct tickers. Overall, this acts as a specific equity risk event.

The main divergence lies with Tottenham. Although the prediction market price (24.6%) has dropped significantly from last week, mainstream sports data models (like Opta or FiveThirtyEight equivalents) typically assign teams with top-tier squad depth extremely low relegation probabilities (often <10%), even if they struggle late in the season. Market sentiment is clearly overly influenced by recent poor form, creating a 'big club panic' that diverges significantly from rational data models.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest EPL standings or Championship promotion trends (to verify the status of listed teams like Sunderland/Leeds), analyze the order book depth for relegation favorites on Polymarket, and assess fair value considering potential PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules) points deductions.

Politics|$1.9m Vol|

282 days 19 hrs

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the current market price is 22.5c, the fair value remains at 15c. The core logic is the 'ha...

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Zelenskyy's departure could signal a major turning point in the Ukraine war (e.g., ceasefire negotiations or chaos from regime change). This directly impacts global energy supply expectations (Crude Oil) and risk sentiment (Gold). If his exit is seen as a de-escalation signal, oil prices might drop; if due to a coup or deterioration, safe-haven assets might rise. Thus, it is a geopolitical event with medium hedging value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions. Update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks based on the current Russia-Ukraine war situation and Ukrainian domestic politics as of March 2026.

Sports|$15.5m Vol|

French Ligue 1 Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although PSG's price has retraced slightly from 93.5c to 91.5c and Lens rebounded from 5.6c to 7.25c...

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Mild divergence exists. At this late stage of the season, traditional sportsbooks typically price a dominant leader like PSG at odds of 1.01-1.03 (97%-99% probability). Polymarket's current price of 91.5c implies odds of roughly 1.09, which offers significantly higher yield than mainstream bookmakers. This divergence is likely due to liquidity premiums in crypto prediction markets or users over-hedging against 'Black Swan' events.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Schedule & European Competition Impact: Analyze the key fixtures scheduled for March and April 2026, specifically direct clashes between the top 4 teams ('six-pointers') and the potential drain of Champions League knockout stages on the league leader's squad rotation. Predict if there are imminent risk events—such as injuries to key players or dropped points due to European distractions—that could trigger significant price volatility in the prediction market within the next 48 hours to one week.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Ligue 1 standings as of March 2026 to calculate the actual points gap between the league leader (e.g., PSG) and challengers like Monaco or Marseille. Combine this with the current bid/ask depth on Polymarket to analyze whether the market odds accurately reflect the probability of winning the title given the remaining schedule, or if there is a pricing bias due to overreaction to recent match results.

[Mainstream Divergence] Traditional Sportsbook Odds Comparison: Search for the latest real-time odds for the '2025-26 Ligue 1 Winner' on mainstream sportsbooks like Bet365 or William Hill. Convert these odds into implied probabilities and compare them with the current prices on Polymarket (especially for the second-tier teams excluding PSG) to identify any arbitrage opportunities or 'value bets' caused by liquidity differences or information lag.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Schedule & European Competition Impact: Analyze the key fixtures scheduled for March and April 2026, specifically direct clashes between the top 4 teams ('six-pointers') and the potential drain of Champions League knockout stages on the league leader's squad rotation. Predict if there are imminent risk events—such as injuries to key players or dropped points due to European distractions—that could trigger significant price volatility in the prediction market within the next 48 hours to one week.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Ligue 1 standings as of March 2026 to calculate the actual points gap between the league leader (e.g., PSG) and challengers like Monaco or Marseille. Combine this with the current bid/ask depth on Polymarket to analyze whether the market odds accurately reflect the probability of winning the title given the remaining schedule, or if there is a pricing bias due to overreaction to recent match results.

World|$5.0m Vol|

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current date is March 23, 2026. 1. The 'March 31' option has negligible value (FV ~1c). Under the 14...

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The definition of 'continuous 14-day period without military action' is complex. Key risks include: 1. Exclusion of proxy actions (Hezbollah, Houthis), which contradicts the public intuition of conflict 'ending' since proxy warfare is often continuous. 2. The requirement for 'official acknowledgment' or 'consensus of credible reporting' can be problematic in an information warfare context, leading to disputes over the origin of attacks (e.g., whether it originated from Iranian soil).

This event is directly tied to Middle East geopolitical stability and is highly sensitive for Crude Oil prices. Failure to resolve (i.e., not meeting the 14-day peace window) implies escalation, boosting oil and safe-haven assets (Gold). Conversely, confirming a peace window would remove the risk premium, benefiting equities. It has significant hedging value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event, and given the extremely low volume of $20, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth of the order book to assess liquidity traps. Combine this with the latest military updates between Iran and Israel/US from the past 24 hours to recalculate the fair probability of a '14-day quiet period'.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

64,000

YesNo

82¢

21¢

65.3¢

34.7¢

0¢

+13.7¢

66,000

YesNo

68¢

34¢

53.1¢

46.9¢

0¢

+12.9¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Weekly Price Change, 0.0010, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0550, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0320, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0320, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 4: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0160, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Trump|$1.8m Vol|

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' (e.g., on Russia, India, Brazil). Plan Description: This is a risk-free opportunity. The event's resolution deadline (Feb 28) has passed, and the outcom...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

The resolution deadline for this event (February 28, 2026) has already passed. Based on public recor...

Log in to see more

There is a significant date discrepancy: the title states 'by March 31', but the rule text explicitly sets the deadline as 'February 28, 2026', which creates confusion for traders. Additionally, diplomatic language is notoriously vague (distinguishing 'agreement in principle' from 'formal joining'), making the interpretation of 'definitive announcement' subjective and prone to disputes.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: As it is the final hours of Resolution Day (Feb 28), immediately check the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for key options like 'China' or 'France' on Polymarket. Combine this with checks for any impromptu press conferences by Trump or the White House today to update your long/short strategy for the final sprint.

Sports|$1.4m Vol|

EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The total implied probability of the market is currently around 320% (Wolves 99.5 + Burnley 99.3 + W...

Log in to see more

Relegation from the EPL has massive financial implications (loss of broadcast revenue and brand value) for listed clubs like Manchester United (MANU). While relegation is highly unlikely for a giant like Man Utd, if it were to happen, the stock impact would be catastrophic (Score 5). For other non-listed clubs, there are no direct tickers. Overall, this acts as a specific equity risk event.

The main divergence lies with Tottenham. Although the prediction market price (24.6%) has dropped significantly from last week, mainstream sports data models (like Opta or FiveThirtyEight equivalents) typically assign teams with top-tier squad depth extremely low relegation probabilities (often <10%), even if they struggle late in the season. Market sentiment is clearly overly influenced by recent poor form, creating a 'big club panic' that diverges significantly from rational data models.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest EPL standings or Championship promotion trends (to verify the status of listed teams like Sunderland/Leeds), analyze the order book depth for relegation favorites on Polymarket, and assess fair value considering potential PSR (Profit and Sustainability Rules) points deductions.

Politics|$1.9m Vol|

282 days 19 hrs

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the current market price is 22.5c, the fair value remains at 15c. The core logic is the 'ha...

Log in to see more

Zelenskyy's departure could signal a major turning point in the Ukraine war (e.g., ceasefire negotiations or chaos from regime change). This directly impacts global energy supply expectations (Crude Oil) and risk sentiment (Gold). If his exit is seen as a de-escalation signal, oil prices might drop; if due to a coup or deterioration, safe-haven assets might rise. Thus, it is a geopolitical event with medium hedging value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions. Update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks based on the current Russia-Ukraine war situation and Ukrainian domestic politics as of March 2026.

Sports|$15.5m Vol|

French Ligue 1 Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although PSG's price has retraced slightly from 93.5c to 91.5c and Lens rebounded from 5.6c to 7.25c...

Log in to see more

Mild divergence exists. At this late stage of the season, traditional sportsbooks typically price a dominant leader like PSG at odds of 1.01-1.03 (97%-99% probability). Polymarket's current price of 91.5c implies odds of roughly 1.09, which offers significantly higher yield than mainstream bookmakers. This divergence is likely due to liquidity premiums in crypto prediction markets or users over-hedging against 'Black Swan' events.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Schedule & European Competition Impact: Analyze the key fixtures scheduled for March and April 2026, specifically direct clashes between the top 4 teams ('six-pointers') and the potential drain of Champions League knockout stages on the league leader's squad rotation. Predict if there are imminent risk events—such as injuries to key players or dropped points due to European distractions—that could trigger significant price volatility in the prediction market within the next 48 hours to one week.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Ligue 1 standings as of March 2026 to calculate the actual points gap between the league leader (e.g., PSG) and challengers like Monaco or Marseille. Combine this with the current bid/ask depth on Polymarket to analyze whether the market odds accurately reflect the probability of winning the title given the remaining schedule, or if there is a pricing bias due to overreaction to recent match results.

[Mainstream Divergence] Traditional Sportsbook Odds Comparison: Search for the latest real-time odds for the '2025-26 Ligue 1 Winner' on mainstream sportsbooks like Bet365 or William Hill. Convert these odds into implied probabilities and compare them with the current prices on Polymarket (especially for the second-tier teams excluding PSG) to identify any arbitrage opportunities or 'value bets' caused by liquidity differences or information lag.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Schedule & European Competition Impact: Analyze the key fixtures scheduled for March and April 2026, specifically direct clashes between the top 4 teams ('six-pointers') and the potential drain of Champions League knockout stages on the league leader's squad rotation. Predict if there are imminent risk events—such as injuries to key players or dropped points due to European distractions—that could trigger significant price volatility in the prediction market within the next 48 hours to one week.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Ligue 1 standings as of March 2026 to calculate the actual points gap between the league leader (e.g., PSG) and challengers like Monaco or Marseille. Combine this with the current bid/ask depth on Polymarket to analyze whether the market odds accurately reflect the probability of winning the title given the remaining schedule, or if there is a pricing bias due to overreaction to recent match results.

World|$5.0m Vol|

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current date is March 23, 2026. 1. The 'March 31' option has negligible value (FV ~1c). Under the 14...

Log in to see more

The definition of 'continuous 14-day period without military action' is complex. Key risks include: 1. Exclusion of proxy actions (Hezbollah, Houthis), which contradicts the public intuition of conflict 'ending' since proxy warfare is often continuous. 2. The requirement for 'official acknowledgment' or 'consensus of credible reporting' can be problematic in an information warfare context, leading to disputes over the origin of attacks (e.g., whether it originated from Iranian soil).

This event is directly tied to Middle East geopolitical stability and is highly sensitive for Crude Oil prices. Failure to resolve (i.e., not meeting the 14-day peace window) implies escalation, boosting oil and safe-haven assets (Gold). Conversely, confirming a peace window would remove the risk premium, benefiting equities. It has significant hedging value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event, and given the extremely low volume of $20, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth of the order book to assess liquidity traps. Combine this with the latest military updates between Iran and Israel/US from the past 24 hours to recalculate the fair probability of a '14-day quiet period'.

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Bitcoin above ___ on March 29? - AI Found +13.7¢ Mispricing