According to the latest Weather Underground forecast, the high temperature at Los Angeles Internatio...

Predicting exact daily high temperatures is a niche topic in general prediction markets, closer to specialized weather derivatives than mainstream news. However, as a common objective natural phenomenon, it is not completely bizarre.

From 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of 68-69°F surged from 23.5c to 36.5c as weather forecasts converged and specifically pointed to a high of 68°F. From 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-01, the price of 64-65°F plummeted from a peak of 36c down to 10.5c because, as the date approached, forecasts showed the cooling effect would be weaker than initially expected. Between 2026-03-29 and 2026-03-30, the price for 64-65°F surged from 17c to a peak of 36c before falling back to 21.5c, likely due to a temporary adjustment in weather forecast models that was subsequently reversed. During the same period, the price for 66-67°F fluctuated between 16.5c and 31.5c, and the price for 68-69°F fluctuated between 18c and 28.5c, reflecting market expectations shifting back and forth between adjacent temperature ranges as forecasts were updated.

Latest weather forecasts and market implied probabilities indicate that the highest temperature in B...

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The price for the 20°C option experienced significant volatility, surging from 18.5c to a peak of 35.5c before settling around 29.5c, due to updates in short-term meteorological models re-evaluating the strength of the high-pressure system. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The 22°C option plummeted from 28.5c to 14.5c as a slight increase in expected cold front activity capped the probability of higher temperatures. Prior to March 29, 2026: Price fluctuations were mild with no single move exceeding 10 cents, as market expectations smoothly converged toward the 19°C to 21°C range.

With less than 2 days until April 1, 2026, the weather forecast for Seattle-Tacoma International Air...

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a single day is a niche, daily weather guessing game. It has low interest for the general public and usually only attracts prediction market players looking for short-term trading opportunities.

March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of the '48-49°F' option dropped from 35c to 24c, while the '50-51°F' option rose from 25.5c to 41c. This occurred because, as the date approached, forecast models slightly adjusted the expected high temperature upwards, making 50-51°F the most likely range. From 18:55 to 20:00 on March 29, 2026, the 'yes' price of the '43°F or below' option dropped from 25.5c to 10.65c, and the '56-57°F' option dropped from 17.5c to 5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, the forecast becomes more accurate, eliminating the possibilities of extremely cold or warm weather and concentrating probabilities into the middle temperature ranges.

Based on the latest market data and the current time (around 2:30 PM local time in Seoul on April 1)...

The title states 'Seoul', but the resolution source specifically relies on data from the Incheon International Airport Station. There can be noticeable temperature differences between inland downtown Seoul and coastal Incheon, creating a significant trap for traders who only check Seoul's weather forecasts.

April 1, 2026, 01:05 - 05:25 UTC: The price of 14°C surged from 31c to 99.6c, while 13°C and 15°C collapsed from 14.5c and 34.5c to below 1c, respectively. The reason is that it is already afternoon in Seoul local time, and the observed high temperature has hit 14°C, removing all market uncertainty. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026: The price of the '14°C' option surged from 10.5c to 27.5c, and '13°C' surged from 15.5c to 37c, while '16°C or higher' plunged from 27c to 2.2c. This was due to short-term weather models ruling out anomalous high temperatures as April 1 approached, firmly anchoring the forecast around 13°C-14°C. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026: Multiple options including 11°C, 12°C, and 14°C experienced price swings of over 10c as weather models frequently adjusted forecasts during a transitional spring period. March 29, 2026, 18:55 - 20:00: The price of the '16°C or higher' option plummeted from 49.5c to 7.5c, driven by weather models downgrading their high temperature estimates.

The latest weather forecasts show a significant upward revision for temperatures near Ben Gurion Air...

Between March 30 and March 31, 2026, the Yes prices for 27°C and 28°C surged to highs of 38c and 28c respectively, while the prices for 24°C and 25°C plummeted. The reason is updated weather forecast models predicting an unseasonable warm-up for Tel Aviv and the Ben Gurion Airport area on April 1, with expected highs revised up to around 26°C-27°C. Between 20:00 and 22:10 on March 29, 2026, the price of '21°C or below' plummeted from 25c to 9c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather forecasts have largely ruled out the possibility of extreme low temperatures.