April 2 - April 4, 2026, the price of the '80°F or higher' option surged from 42.5c to 77.5c. The reason is that as the prediction date approaches, the latest weather forecasts have further confirmed extreme heat in the LAX area, significantly increasing the certainty of temperatures breaking 80°F. On April 2, 2026, the price of the '80°F or higher' option surged from 29.5c to 55c before falling back to 39c, likely due to short-term intense volatility in meteorological models predicting the severity of extreme heat in the LA area. March 31 - April 1, 2026, the price of '80°F or higher' plummeted from 59c to around 21c. This is likely due to updated weather forecasts downgrading the probability of extreme heat. March 30 - March 31, 2026, the price of '80°F or higher' climbed from around 24c to 37.5c. This is likely due to updated weather forecasts confirming a warming trend for April 4. Between 19:50 and 20:55 on March 29, 2026, the 'Yes' prices for multiple mid-range temperature options plummeted from around 26c to approx 17c. This was likely due to market makers adjusting heavily over-priced order books, partially reducing the absurdly high aggregate implied probability.

There is a notable geographical trap in the rules. The title asks for the temperature in 'Taipei,' but the resolution source specifically uses data from 'Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport' (RCTP), which is located in Taoyuan City, not Taipei. Traders who only read the title might consult Taipei City weather forecasts and be misled by temperature discrepancies between the two locations. Additionally, the market resolves strictly to whole degrees Celsius.

April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of '22°C or below' surged from 13.5c to 71c, because as the settlement day approached, actual observation data or very short-term forecasts showed the maximum temperature was much lower than previously expected. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of '24°C' plummeted from 33.5c to 3.9c, and '25°C' dropped from 28.5c to 2.15c, as temperature forecasts were revised downwards, eliminating the possibility of these temperature ranges. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of '24°C' rose from 22c to 31c, as weather forecasting models became more confident that the peak temperature on the 4th will be around 24°C as the date approaches. March 29, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of '22°C or below' fluctuated from 26c up to 45c before retreating to 16.5c, while '25°C' climbed from 15c to 28c before settling at 24.5c. This is due to short-term weather models oscillating on the exact timing of the frontal rain and cooling magnitude. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, options 26°C and above generally plummeted from 25c-26c down to 10c-14c. This occurred because as the date approaches, weather forecasts have increasingly confirmed a cooling trend with rain due to a frontal system, eliminating the possibility of high temperatures.

Weather forecasting is a common vertical in prediction markets, but predicting the exact highest temperature for a specific city on a specific day mainly appeals to meteorology enthusiasts or locals. It is relatively niche and trivial for the general public, giving it a moderate novelty factor.

April 3, 2026 (07:10 to 16:55), the price of '17°C or higher' surged from 55.5c to 88.5c, while '16°C' plummeted from 27.5c to 9c. This was driven by near-term forecast models converging with high confidence on a peak temperature of 17°C or warmer. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' plummeted from 75.5c to 51.5c, while '16°C' surged from 14.5c to 37.5c. This occurred because the latest weather models slightly downgraded the expected high for Paris CDG on April 4, significantly increasing the market's belief that the temperature will land in the 16°C bucket. Between 19:40 on March 31, 2026 and 06:30 on April 1, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' pulled back from 86c to 75.5c due to profit-taking by early investors and minor fluctuations in forecast certainty. Between 04:30 and 07:45 on March 31, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' recovered from 58c to 66.5c, as weather forecast models became more consistent and certain about higher temperatures approaching the target date. Between 21:05 and 22:10 on March 29, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' surged from 12c to 30.5c, as new weather forecast updates indicated a significant warming trend for April 4. Between 20:00 and 21:05 on March 29, 2026, lower temperature options plummeted by more than 10c, as the market rapidly priced in the aforementioned warmer expectations.

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche trivia topic. Ordinary people usually look at general forecasts rather than betting on exact daily integers, though weather derivatives are a known and quantifiable category in prediction markets.

April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of '28°C' fluctuated upwards from 22c to 34.5c, as weather models further confirmed the high probability of this temperature closer to the forecast date. April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026: The price of '27°C' fluctuated upwards from 15c to 28c, as weather models converged towards this temperature range. April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026: The price of '26°C' fluctuated upwards from 18c to 22.5c, reflecting increased market expectations for this temperature range. March 31, 2026 - April 2, 2026: The price of '27°C' surged from 13.5c to 30.5c, driven by updated meteorological models closer to the forecast date significantly raising the expected probability of this temperature. March 31, 2026 - April 2, 2026: The price of '26°C' plummeted from 25.5c to 15.5c, as weather models gradually shifted towards higher temperatures, reducing the likelihood of this slightly cooler option. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The price of '28°C' surged from 12.5c to 30.5c, driven by updated meteorological models closer to the forecast date, significantly raising the expected probability of this temperature. March 30, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The price of '23°C' steadily declined from 10.5c to 5.5c, indicating that the possibility of lower temperatures is being further ruled out. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of '22°C or below' plummeted from 28c to 5c, as weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of a significant temperature drop. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of '23°C' experienced severe volatility, dropping from 26c to 4.5c before rebounding to 17.5c, indicating significant market disagreement on the lower bound of the forecast models. March 30, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The price of '25°C' spiked briefly from 21.5c to 31c before quickly retracing, likely due to a liquidity shock from a single large trade.

2026-04-02 to 2026-04-03, the price of 20°C surged from 19.5c to 36.5c, as short-term weather models revised the expected high temperature downwards, making 20°C a strong contender. 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-03, the price of 22°C plummeted from 23.5c to 10.5c, due to forecasts eliminating the possibility of warmer temperatures. 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-02, the price of 21°C surged from 16.5c to 34c, and 20°C experienced significant volatility from 14c up to 29.5c. This is because, as the resolution date nears, weather forecast models converged further toward the cooler 20°C-21°C range, ruling out higher temperature possibilities. 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-01, the price of 23°C plummeted from 20.5c to 9.5c and rebounded to 20c, as short-term weather models fluctuated regarding precipitation probabilities and cloud cover, causing the expected high to swing between 21°C and 23°C. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-31, the price of '27°C or higher' surged from 25.5c to 37.5c before plummeting to 11c, due to updated weather models confirming that cold air and rain would suppress abnormal heat. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-31, prices of several non-core options like 18°C, 20°C, 24°C, 25°C, and 26°C dropped from 25.5c to below 13c. This was caused by the market converging toward the 21°C-22°C range as the date approaches, correcting the initial flat pricing caused by illiquidity. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30, the price of '17°C or below' spiked from 1.5c to 19c then fell to 4c, as some pessimistic forecasts briefly showed extreme cooling potential, which was later invalidated by mainstream models.