April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026: The price of [2°C] surged from 32c to 70.5c, and [3°C] rose from 15.5c to 29c, while [4°C] plummeted from 4.3c to 1.45c. This occurred because, as the expiration approached, meteorological data highly confirmed the high temperature would land between 2°C and 3°C, ruling out warmer scenarios. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026: The price of [1°C] surged from 24c to 41c, and [2°C] stabilized above 30c, as weather models further narrowed the forecast error margins and ruled out a significant warming trend. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of [0°C] spiked from 7.5c to 22.5c before retreating, driven by short-term fluctuations in cold front forecasts that triggered speculative trading on the daily high stalling at freezing. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of [-2°C] plummeted from 24.5c to 3.35c, and [1°C] fluctuated heavily between 16c and 25.5c. As the resolution date approached, weather forecast models largely ruled out extreme freezing conditions, causing market capital to converge toward the consensus 1°C and 2°C marks. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026: The price of [3°C] also saw high volatility, dropping from 25.5c to 11c before rebounding to 16.5c, reflecting short-term trading around the margin of error in temperature forecasts.

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather platforms (e.g., AccuWeather, Weather.com, Met Office) unanimously forecast a high between 13°C and 14°C on April 10. However, the prediction market prices the probability of '16°C or below' at less than 50%. This discrepancy is likely due to a lack of liquidity or market participants failing to update their expectations based on the latest short-term weather forecasts.

This is a specific regional political event (Irish by-election) that is niche for a global audience. The inclusion of candidates like Gerry Hutch (a known crime figure/'The Monk') adds a layer of novelty/sensation, distinguishing it from mainstream macro political predictions.

There is a significant divergence. The prediction market gives Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis a 76% chance of winning, which starkly contradicts mainstream political realities. Dublin Central is one of Ireland's most competitive constituencies, with deep roots for Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fáil. In a single-seat by-election, it is exceptionally rare for any candidate to hold an overwhelming >75% advantage from the outset. Mainstream media and political analysts broadly consider this race to be a highly competitive multi-way battle.

This is a niche market concerning the token launch of a specific project (Predict.fun). While predicting the FDV of new tokens is a common topic in crypto, Predict.fun itself may not be a household name. Predicting specific valuation tiers is a vertical speculative question, slightly exotic to the general public but relatively standard for crypto-native users.