Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 9?
Weather|$10.6k Vol|
time16 hrs 20 mins

Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 9? - AI Found +14.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 7 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+14.5¢
34°C(No)
+10.8¢
31°C(Yes)
+5.1¢
35°C(No)

Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 9? AI analysis: • +14.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest trading price trends and weather forecast expectations, 33°C and 32°C have becom...
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# of views of MrBeast video day 5?
Culture|$23.8k Vol|
time4 hrs 20 mins

# of views of MrBeast video day 5?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
70–71M(No)
+9¢
72–73M(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest public metrics, the video reached 59 million views by the end of Day 3. MrBe...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
How many views did MrBeast's recent videos typically reach at the 120-hour mark, and how does that historical data compare to the current 68M to 73M+ prediction brackets?
Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics|$53.0k Vol|
time177 days 4 hrs

Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+21.4¢
ZZS(No)
+12.5¢
JV(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest price trends and Latvian polling data, the market is undergoing a self-correctio...
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Movers
March 22, 2026 - March 27, 2026, LPV's price plummeted from 37.5c to 26c. The reason is that the previous bullish momentum faded, and the market underwent a rational correction and profit-taking after fully digesting the positive news of LPV topping the polls. March 9, 2026 - March 12, 2026, the market remained in a tight range with no option moving more than 2c. JV drifted slightly from 47.5c to 45.5c, NA from 17c to 15c, and LPV held steady in the 15-16c range. The market appears to be digesting recent news of LPV topping the polls but has not yet triggered a major repricing event.
Divergence
Mainstream polls show that LPV and JV are neck-and-neck, with LPV even taking the lead in some surveys. However, despite recent price corrections, the market still assigns JV (35.5c) a significantly higher win probability than LPV (26c). This divergence indicates that traders believe JV's campaign machinery, shy voters, or coalition strategies will outperform raw polling in actual seat conversion, or that the market does not yet fully trust the durability of LPV's polling surge.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for the 'Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner' event, analyzing the bid-ask spread and volume ($51k) for top contenders like NA and JV to assess fair value and liquidity risks.
Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto|$26.9k Vol|
time632 days 9 hrs

Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued
+15¢
$100M(Yes)
+4¢
$400M(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market exhibits a severe monotonicity violation. Theoretically, the probability of FDV > $400M m...
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Movers
March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the $400M option surged from 9c to 29.5c, and the $500M option surged from 9c to 22.5c, caused by irrational pricing and severe monotonicity violation due to liquidity exhaustion. February 24, 2026 - February 25, 2026, the price of the $600M option surged from 8.85c to 32.8c. The reason is a breakdown in the pricing model due to liquidity drying up, causing an irrational inversion where the higher strike is priced above lower strikes. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the price of the $600M option surged from 9.8c to 33.15c. The reason was a pricing anomaly or erroneous trading due to thin liquidity.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid/ask depth for specific Perena FDV buckets (e.g., $300M vs $500M). Simultaneously, search pre-market platforms like Whales Market, Aevo, or Hyperliquid to compare the current OTC trading price of Perena against the FDV implied by Polymarket odds to identify arbitrage opportunities.
Iran military action against Israel on...?
Geopolitics|$664.0k Vol|
time21 days 4 hrs

Iran military action against Israel on...?

Top Undervalued
+38¢
April 10(Yes)
+32.8¢
April 8(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Yes price for April 2 is currently at 99.7%, strongly suggesting that a qualifying strike (origi...
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Rule Risk
There is a significant 'interception trap' in the rules. Note that initiating an attack is not sufficient for a 'Yes'; the rules explicitly state that intercepted missiles or drones (even if debris causes damage) do not count. Given Israel's high interception rates (Iron Dome, Arrow), even a massive barrage could resolve to 'No' if no projectiles directly impact the ground intact. Additionally, the distinction between direct Iranian military action (counts) and proxy attacks by Hezbollah/Houthis (does not count) is critical.
Hedging
RTX
Bitcoin
Gold
S&P 500
Crude Oil
If this event resolves to 'Yes', it implies a direct military strike by Iran on Israeli soil that bypasses defenses, marking a severe geopolitical escalation potentially leading to regional war. This would cause a structural shock to Crude Oil prices due to fears of a Strait of Hormuz blockade (Score 5), a surge in Gold as a safe haven, and panic selling in risk assets like the S&P 500. Defense contractors (e.g., RTX) would likely see increased demand.
Movers
March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the 'April 2' option surged from 84.5c to 99.7c, driven by the likely occurrence of an actual strike or irrefutable intelligence indicating an imminent attack on that specific day. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the 'April 6' option rose from 82c to 87c, as the intense escalation and direct strike expectations spilled over, causing the market to price in sustained hostilities through mid-April.
Divergence
The market is currently pricing in an >80% probability for every single day from April 2 to April 10 that Iran will successfully conduct a direct, unintercepted strike impacting Israeli soil. This diverges from mainstream military and geopolitical consensus, which typically anticipates concentrated waves of retaliatory barrages rather than sustained, daily unintercepted ground impacts breaking through Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, Arrow, etc.) for ten consecutive days. The market sentiment is heavily skewed by acute wartime panic, likely underestimating the success rate of interceptions against prolonged daily strikes.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve and analyze the latest odds distribution and liquidity depth for the 'April 1st to April 10th' dates on Polymarket. Combine this with current geopolitical intelligence (e.g., warnings from US intelligence) to assess whether the market pricing adequately reflects the risk difference between a 'state-level direct conflict' versus a 'proxy war'.
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
World|$85.0k Vol|
time82 days 4 hrs

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

Top Undervalued
+2.3¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
To complete formal annexation of any Gaza territory in the remaining 90 days requires navigating the...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
This is not a routine cyclical political event (like an election) but a high-stakes geopolitical tail risk. While the Gaza situation is a hot topic, 'formal annexation' is an extreme political move that sits on the edge of mainstream discourse, giving it medium-to-high novelty.
Hedging
Gold
Crude Oil
Formal annexation of Gaza by Israel would be viewed as a major escalation in the Middle East conflict, likely triggering strong reactions from neighboring Arab states or regional war. This would directly threaten regional oil supply security, causing a spike in oil prices (Crude Oil). Simultaneously, geopolitical panic would drive demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. The impact on US yields depends on the interplay between flight-to-safety and inflation expectations.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'Israel Annex Gaza' event (as of March 2026) to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value regarding the shift from military control to legal annexation.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
34°C
YesNo
15.5¢
84.5¢
1¢
99¢
0¢
+14.5¢
31°C
YesNo
6.2¢
93.8¢
17¢
83¢
+10.8¢
0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
While betting on the precise daily high temperature of a specific city is a niche activity for the general public, weather forecasting markets are a standard and recurring category on prediction platforms.
Movers
On April 8, 2026, the price of 33°C surged from 31c to 42c, as the settlement date approached and the latest meteorological data indicated a high probability of the maximum temperature hitting this range. Between April 6 and April 7, 2026, the price of 32°C jumped from 20.5c to 31c, while 30°C rose from 10c to 28.5c before pulling back, due to weather forecast updates triggering a market reassessment of the extent to which rain would suppress temperatures. From April 5 to April 6, 2026, the price of 34°C plunged from 26c to 10.5c, because weather forecasts confirmed that thunderstorms would effectively suppress extreme heat. From April 5 to April 6, 2026, the price of 28°C experienced severe volatility, dropping from 13.15c to 1.45c before rebounding, indicating speculative trading and short-term liquidity shocks regarding the probability of abnormally low temperatures.

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