This is a standard weather prediction market. While forecasting the exact highest temperature for a specific city on a particular day isn't a mainstream daily conversation topic, it is a common genre in prediction markets and weather derivatives.

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The price of the 36°C option surged from 25.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, weather models have converged around 96°F (approx. 35.5°C), making it the most likely rounded outcome. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The price of the 38°C option plummeted from 23c to 4c, due to updated forecasts showing thunderstorms, which significantly diminishes the chances of extreme heat. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The 34°C option experienced high volatility, dropping from 17.5c to 3.1c before rebounding to 13.5c, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the cooling effects of cloud cover and rain.

Between May 21, 2026 and May 22, 2026, the price of the 30°C option plummeted from 18.8c to 6c, and the 34°C option dropped from 19c to 7c, while the 32°C option surged from 19.5c to 31c. This was caused by the approaching resolution date; the latest weather forecasts provided a much more concentrated and accurate prediction of the temperature range, ruling out the possibilities of both lower and higher outlier temperatures, causing funds to concentrate on the most likely range.

Predicting the specific highest temperature of a particular city on a given day is rarely a serious guessing topic in daily life, making it somewhat niche. However, in the realm of prediction markets, daily weather derivatives are a relatively mature and common category.

Between May 21, 2026 and May 22, 2026, the price of the 23°C option dropped from 28.5c to 13.5c before rebounding to 21c. This volatility was caused by slight adjustments in weather forecasting models for the exact high temperature on the eve of the resolution date, leading to a reallocation of market funds between the 23°C and 24°C options.