Highest temperature in Madrid on April 12?
Weather|$10.9k Vol|
time1 days 18 hrs

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 12? - AI Found +15¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 14 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+15¢
14°C(No)
+14¢
17°C(Yes)
+9.5¢
18°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 12? AI analysis: • +15¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices indicate that the probabilities for 16°C (30c) and 17°C (25.5c) are rising, wi...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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NBA Southeast Division Winner
Sports|$790.4k Vol|
time1 days 14 hrs

NBA Southeast Division Winner

Top Undervalued
+2¢
Atlanta Hawks(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
1¢
Arbitrage
363%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Simultaneously buy Yes shares for Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, and Charlotte Hornets. Plan Description: The sum of the Yes prices for the three options is currently around 98.05c. Assuming unlisted teams ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
With only a few games left in the regular season, the Atlanta Hawks maintain a clear lead in the Sou...
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Rule Risk
The title asks for the 'NBA Southeast Division Winner', but the rules mention '2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals'. This is likely a copy-paste error or confusion, as division winners are determined by regular season records, not the conference finals. If interpreted strictly, this wording creates ambiguity. However, the resolution date (April 12, 2026) aligns with the end of the regular season, suggesting standard division rules apply. Despite this, the explicit mention of 'Conference Finals' warrants a risk flag.
Movers
2026-04-08 to 2026-04-09, Atlanta Hawks' price plummeted from 96.5c to 66.45c before quickly rebounding to 89.3c, as the team faced an unexpected result or injury risk late in the regular season but subsequently stabilized the situation, firmly regaining control. 2026-04-05 to 2026-04-08, Atlanta Hawks' price violently fluctuated between 98c and 66.45c, while Charlotte Hornets' price spiked from 0.55c to 14.6c before dropping. This was due to speculative money betting on a theoretical comeback chance for the Hornets following a Hawks loss and Hornets win streak. 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-02, Atlanta Hawks' price rose from 80.95c to 94.95c, as the team further solidified its lead in the standings with only about 10 days left in the regular season, pushing its probability near 100%. 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-03, Atlanta Hawks' price rose from 78.8c to 93.95c, as the team essentially clinched the division title with only about a week left in the regular season. 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-01, Atlanta Hawks' price surged from 55.5c to 80.95c, as the team further solidified its lead in the standings with less than two weeks left in the regular season. 2026-03-22 to 2026-03-25, Orlando Magic's price crashed from 39c to 22c, while Atlanta Hawks surged from 28.8c to 38.2c. This shift is due to the Magic's recent losing streak, allowing the Hawks to secure the top spot in the division. 2026-03-22 to 2026-03-24, Charlotte Hornets saw an abnormal spike from 7.35c to 21.95c before dropping to 13.95c, indicating speculative money entering the highly contested division race. 2026-03-21 to 2026-03-24, the market experienced a violent 'seesaw' effect. Magic's price crashed from 45c to 26.5c, while Hawks surged from 20.8c to 34.15c, indicating a decisive positioning game occurred. 2026-03-19 to 2026-03-22, Atlanta Hawks' price rose from 17.85c to 28.8c, driven by their head-to-head victory over the Magic, securing the tiebreaker advantage.
AI Analysis
Which teams will make the NBA Playoffs?
Sports|$1.6m Vol|
time2 days 11 hrs

Which teams will make the NBA Playoffs?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
Philadelphia 76ers(Yes)
+1¢
Phoenix Suns(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only 2 days left in the regular season, market prices closely reflect the latest team standings...
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Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Philadelphia 76ers' price plummeted from 87c to 56c before rebounding to 67.5c, likely due to a critical late-season loss, severely damaging their chances of direct qualification and pushing them into a precarious play-in situation. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Toronto Raptors' price surged significantly from 74.5c to 95.45c, as the team won crucial games in the final stretch, vastly improving their chances of advancing. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Orlando Magic's price surged significantly from 50c to 75c before dropping to 71.5c, as the team secured consecutive wins or competitors lost, putting them in a great position for a playoff spot. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Charlotte Hornets' price plummeted from 63c to 43.5c before recovering to 51.5c, due to crucial late-season losses that severely damaged their playoff or play-in prospects. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Miami Heat's price continued to plummet from 31c to 18.5c, caused by frequent recent losses and strong performances by direct competitors, heavily decreasing their chances. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, Los Angeles Clippers' price rose from 52c to 66c and dropped to 58c, driven by volatile recent performances but managing to stabilize when it mattered most. April 6, 2026 - April 7, 2026, Atlanta Hawks' price dropped from 98.35c to 90.9c, then rebounded to 97.4c, as the team made quick adjustments after a minor setback in the final stretch. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, Philadelphia 76ers' price plummeted from 92c to 81.5c before rebounding to around 86c, due to an unexpected setback in the standings before stabilizing. April 2, 2026 - April 6, 2026, Portland Trail Blazers' price rose from 29c to 41c, as fluctuations in competitors' records slightly improved their hopes of advancing through the Play-In. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, Atlanta Hawks' price surged from 80c to 93c, as their continued winning streak further solidified their playoff spot.
AI Analysis
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Politics|$11.4m Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+2.3¢
Ricardo Belmont(No)
+1.9¢
Roberto Sánchez Palomino(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 2 days until the election, market pricing remains stable and accurately reflects the ...
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Hedging
SCCO
BVN
EPU
Peru is one of the world's largest copper producers, and its political stability directly impacts the operations and tax policies of major mining companies. A victory by a far-left or polarizing right-wing candidate (e.g., Keiko Fujimori or a radical leftist) could trigger concerns over mining concessions, taxes, or social conflicts, significantly impacting mining stocks with heavy exposure to Peru (e.g., Southern Copper - SCCO, Buenaventura - BVN) and the Peru ETF (EPU). While copper prices are driven more by global supply and demand, political turmoil in a key producer could cause localized supply shocks.
Movers
2026-04-07 to 2026-04-10, Ricardo Belmont's price surged from 10.35c to 25.5c, driven by accelerated consolidation of left-wing voters around him in the final pre-election stretch, establishing him as the primary left-leaning candidate. 2026-04-06 to 2026-04-10, Carlos Álvarez's price experienced severe volatility, dropping from 27.45c to 14.05c before rebounding to 21.25c, mainly affected by profit-taking and repositioning of swing capital. 2026-04-06 to 2026-04-09, Keiko Fujimori's price steadily climbed from 24.5c to 35.5c, as right-wing voters began strategic voting in the final stretch to ensure her spot in the runoff. 2026-04-05 to 2026-04-10, Roberto Sánchez Palomino's price dropped from 16.8c to 5.35c, as he lost swing supporters in the competition with other left-wing candidates, particularly Ricardo Belmont. 2026-04-03 to 2026-04-10, Rafael López Aliaga's price declined to 12.5c (then slightly rebounded to 16.5c), as the market developed doubts about his ability to secure a runoff spot in a crowded right-wing field.
AI Analysis
Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Politics|$2.0m Vol|
time1 days 6 hrs

Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%(No)
+1¢
Tisza 3-6%(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the current buy prices for all options is around 100%, indicating a highly converged mark...
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Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 9%+' surged from 38.5c to 50c before pulling back to 44c, as late capital heavily concentrated on an overwhelming opposition victory in the final stretch, followed by mild profit-taking. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 9%+' steadily rose from 37c to 50c. The reason is that as the election approaches, market capital heavily poured in, betting on a landslide victory for the opposition party Tisza, breaking the previous consolidation trend. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 6-9%' fell from 25c to 15.5c. The reason is that capital concentrated into the larger margin bracket (9%+), cooling expectations for this range. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 6-9%' fell from 26.5c to the 17.5c range before rebounding slightly, indicating profit-taking in the moderate-to-large margin brackets in the final stretch before the election. April 2, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 9%+' fell from 48c to 37.5c, as some profit-taking occurred in the final week before the election and capital shifted towards a slightly more conservative leading margin (6-9%), cooling expectations of an extreme blowout. April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 6-9%' steadily rose from 14.5c to 26.5c, indicating that as the election approaches, capital is starting to diversify from the extreme landslide option towards a moderate-to-large margin bracket. March 30, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 9%+' surged from 34.5c to 48c, as late-stage capital aggressively bet on a massive landslide for the anti-establishment party amid extreme market euphoria. March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 9%+' steadily rose from 32.5c to 39c, while 'Tisza 3-6%' dropped from 19c to 12c. Capital increasingly concentrated on the extreme landslide bracket. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 9%+' rose from 21.5c to 31.5c. After a period of consolidation, buying volume returned to bet on a landslide opposition victory, breaking the previous range. March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of 'Tisza 9%+' plummeted from 41.5c to 31.5c, marking a cooling of the euphoria surrounding a potential Tisza landslide, with capital rotating towards more moderate margin brackets.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
14°C
YesNo
33¢
67¢
18¢
82¢
+15¢
17°C
YesNo
11¢
89¢
25¢
75¢
+14¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a common prediction market topic, but ordinary people outside Madrid or meteorology rarely think about the exact numerical value on a random day.
Movers
April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The price of 16°C climbed from 17.5c to 30c, driven by recent weather models adjusting expected temperatures upward. April 8, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The price of 17°C increased from 17c to 25.5c, reflecting the same warming trend. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026: The price of 14°C dropped from 25.5c to 17.5c, indicating reduced market confidence in cooler outcomes.

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